Here’s a hint to how Fresno State might attack San Diego State in Saturday showdown

Fresno State can clinch a West Division title by beating San Diego State on Saturday night and book a spot in the Mountain West Conference championship game for a second year in a row.

But the Aztecs are not an easy mark, closer on the football field to the Boise State team that just beat Fresno State than to San Jose State or any of the first five Mountain West teams the Bulldogs rolled by an average score of 36.8 to 7.2.

The Bulldogs are a 15-point favorite on their home field, where they are 4-0 this season and 9-1 under coach Jeff Tedford.

But the game could be much closer, particularly if the Bulldogs struggle to move the football against a San Diego State defense that is leading the conference in total defense and second in scoring defense.

Here are some things to watch …

Can they run it?

It would appear counterintuitive, to a point. But the Mountain West teams that have beaten San Diego State over the past four-plus seasons did it largely by attacking a run defense that has been one of the best in the conference over that time.

That includes the Bulldogs, who last season rushed the ball on 70.4 percent of their plays from scrimmage in a 27-3 victory, churning out 199 yards on 38 plays.

In eight of the Aztecs’ past nine losses, their opponent rushed the ball right at them. The only exception is Nevada, this season, and the Wolf Pack took advantage of good field position on four of their scores, getting the ball at the 50, their 47 and the Aztecs’ 36 and 17.

Here is San Diego State in its past nine MW losses, and their opponent’s rushing number and percentage of rushing plays in the game:

2018

• UNLV: 43 for 199; 64.1
  
  
• Nevada: 23 for 62; 34.8
  
  

2017

• Fresno State: 38 for 199; 70.4
  
  
• Boise State: 34 for 186; 60.0
  
  

2016

• Wyoming: 53 for 205; 63.1
  
  
• Colorado State: 46 for 291; 74.2
  
  

2014

• Fresno State: 43 for 172; 60.6
  
  
• Nevada: 47 for 229; 66.2
  
  
• Boise State: 47 for 212; 62.7
  
  

In running over the Aztecs last season, Fresno State had its highest run percentage of any game that it has played under Tedford and offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer.

The highest it has been this season is 66.3 against FCS Idaho; the highest against an FBS opponent is 61.2 against UCLA. In both games they were well ahead and running the ball almost exclusively in the fourth quarter: 17 of the Bulldogs’ last 19 plays against Idaho were runs and 19 of the last 21 against the Bruins.

Can the Bulldogs get anything going in the run game?

Fresno State has been inconsistent with its run game this season and is ranked only ninth in the Mountain West in rushing offense with 146.2 yards per game.

But it was only marginally better last season when headed to SDCCU Stadium to play the Aztecs. Then, the Bulldogs were seventh in the conference in rushing, averaging 167.7 yards per game.

KeeSean climbing

KeeSean Johnson will enter the game 199 yards away from passing Rodney Wright to move into second place on the Bulldogs’ all-time receiving yards list and 269 yards away from passing Charlie Jones to become the most prolific pass catcher in school history.

The senior already this season set the Fresno State record for career receptions – he has 250 for 3,076 yards.

Johnson would need to average 89.3 yards over three games or 67.0 yards over four games to set the record.

The Aztecs start two experienced cornerbacks and are second in the conference in pass defense, but there figure to be plays to be made for quarterback Marcus McMaryion and Johnson, who has been on the receiving end of eight passes in each of the past four games for 149, 102, 97 and 95 yards.

San Diego State, while second in the MW in pass defense, has allowed opponents to hit 60.2 percent of their passes (seventh) and average 6.7 yards per attempt (fourth).

It also has given up some big games to opposing wideouts:

• Stanford: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 6 for 226 and 3 TDs
  
  
• Arizona State: Frank Darby 5 for 127
  
  
• Arizona State: N’Keal Harry, 9 for 86 and 1 TD
  
  
• Eastern Michigan: Line Latu 3 for 86
  
  

In Mountain West games, the Aztecs have played four of the six teams in the bottom half of the conference in passing offense – San Jose State (seventh), New Mexico (eighth), UNLV (10th) and Air Force (11th).

Johnson also is just 47 yards away from becoming only the fourth receiver in school history with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, joining Larry Willis (1983-840, Davante Adams (2012-13) and Josh Harper (2013-14).

Eye on the ‘backers

The matchup features two of the most productive linebackers in the nation in the Bulldogs’ Jeff Allison and the Aztecs’ Kyahva Tezino, who play in different defenses but bear some striking similarities and will be entertaining to watch working and wreaking havoc against much different offenses.

Both are 6 feet tall, though Allison is a bit heavier coming in at 244 pounds to 230 for Tezino.

Both are juniors.

Both are middle linebackers, Allison in a multiple 4-3 and Tezino in a 3-3-5.

Both are averaging 9.8 tackles per game.

Both have had 10 or more tackles in five games this season – Allison with games with 17, 15, 14, 13 and 10 tackles and Tezino with games with 15, 14, 12, 12 and 11 tackles.

And both have led their teams in tackles in more than 65 percent of their starts, Allison in 15 of 23 and Tezino in 11 of 15.

Time and TV

San Diego State (7-3, 4-2 Mountain West) at Fresno State (8-2, 5-1), 7:30 p.m. Saturday at Bulldog Stadium, CBS Sports Network