Fresno State vs. Boise State: 3 things to watch, including the Broncos’ pass game

Fresno State and Boise State tee it up Saturday in the final football game of the regular season, each with division titles in the Mountain West Conference already in hand.

The Bulldogs are 6-1 and won the West. The Broncos are 7-0 and won the Mountain.

They will square off again next week in the conference championship game, which comes with a nice trophy and for players, coaches and staff, a big ring.

That adds a fascinating dynamic to a rivalry game that hasn’t been all that close. The Broncos have won 13 of the past 15 meetings, including final scores of 57-7, 51-0, 61-10 and 67-21.

None of those results matter on Saturday, though.

Head coaches Jeff Tedford and Bryan Harsin don’t figure to hold a lot back – after going 1-11 last season it’s difficult to imagine the Bulldogs gearing down with an opportunity to win any game, or the Broncos doing so with a chance to win a 10th regular-season game. Both also have an opportunity to test the value of a pressure or a play or tempo or a one-on-one matchup that could be exploited somewhere on the field in next week’s championship game.

“Very unique,” Tedford said. “I’ve done it in pro football before, but college football I’ve never been in this situation before. I’m not sure many have. I know (in) talking to our conference, this is the first time this has come up like this.

“So, it’s interesting, but take one at a time. Every time we go on the field we’re going out to win, so take one at a time.”

Here are three things to watch … 

1. Fire away on first down?

The Bulldogs averaged 33.3 points over their first four Mountain West games, but have averaged just 20.0 points over their past four games (including BYU), and in all likelihood are going to need a few more than that to take down Boise State.

There are a lot of reasons behind that, including these two: They had only 10 series against UNLV and nine against BYU.

But third down has not been their best friend through that stretch and something to watch will be first down, especially against Boise State.

Fresno State over its past eight games has rushed the football on 70.3 percent of its first-down plays with only slightly diminishing returns over the past four.

But quarterback Marcus McMaryion this season has completed 80.2 percent of his first-down passes for 880 yards. He is averaging 10.9 yards per attempt and has a passing efficiency rating on first down of 195.95, which is the best in the conference by a wide margin. The next highest is 177.96 and that is Wyoming’s Nick Smith, who has attempted only 17 first-down passes. The next highest rating for a quarterback with 80 or more attempts is 147.39 by the Cowboys’ Josh Allen.

The Broncos’ defense plays the run well on first down, allowing only 3.8 yards per rush, the best mark in the conference.

But when throwing the football on first down, Boise State opponents have hit 66.9 percent of their throws, are averaging 7.0 yards per attempt and have an efficiency rating of 132.19, fifth in the conference.

2. Clean jersey

To maintain his first down passing efficiency rating, McMaryion will need time in the pocket against a defense that allows only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and is first in the Mountain West with 28.0 sacks.

Linebackers Curtis Weaver and Jabril Frazier have 8.0 and 6.0 sacks, ranking in a tie for first and fourth in the conference. The Bulldogs’ offensive line has been very solid this season against some very good pass rushers, but how well they deal with Weaver and Frazier could have a lot to do with determining the outcome.

The Bulldogs have faced seven of the 13 players ranked in the top 10 in the conference in sacks – there are two tied for first and for fifth, three tied for seventh and four tied for 10th. None of them have a sack against Fresno State. They also have faced seven of the 11 players in the top 10 in tackles for loss. Only three of them have a full TFL against the Bulldogs, led by San Jose State linebacker William Ossai with 2.0.

In the Bulldogs victory at Wyoming, Cowboys defensive end Carl Granderson was in on only three tackles. He went into that game leading the MW in tackles for loss.

3. Heads-up

Fresno State has allowed only 20 explosive pass plays of 20 or more yards this season, which is tied with Tennessee for the fewest in the nation.

In Mountain West play that number is 11. Four of them, curiously, came in a 38-0 victory over New Mexico, which runs the option.

But the combination of quarterback Brett Rypien and wideouts Cedrick Wilson and A.J. Richardson is something they really have not seen lately. Add in Jake Roh, who has nine touchdown receptions, tied for the most in the nation among tight ends, and the Broncos outside receivers become more dangerous threats.

Rypien over the past four games has completed 78 of 119 passes for 1,149 yards and 12 touchdowns. His passing efficiency rating there is 178.25, and the Broncos have 22 explosive pass plays of 20 or more yards.

Wilson is averaging 17.4 yards on his 58 receptions and has six touchdowns. Richardson is averaging 15.4 yards on 27 catches and has one touchdown.

In a 44-19 victory last week over Air Force, Rypien threw passes of 33, 29 and 39 yards to Wilson and 87 and 30 yards to Richardson, and the Broncos had six explosive pass plays of 20 or more yards in the game.

Do you want to guess how many Air Force had allowed going into that game? The answer: 23; the Falcons were third in the conference.

This story was originally published November 24, 2017 at 12:20 PM with the headline "Fresno State vs. Boise State: 3 things to watch, including the Broncos’ pass game."