Fresno State at Wyoming: 3 things to watch, including more rude treatment of opposing QBs

This game has been on the schedule for quite some time, so it’s no surprise that the Fresno State Bulldogs are in Laramie, Wyo. The stunner is what is at stake in a matchup at War Memorial Stadium. With one more win the Bulldogs will clinch a spot in the Mountain West Conference football championship game, one year after going 1-11.

In Las Vegas in August they were the longest shot on the board to get there – 300/1.

The Cowboys are not an easy mark – and there have been a few for the Bulldogs along the way.

The status of quarterback Josh Allen out of Firebaugh High is a question due to a shoulder injury suffered last week in a victory at Air Force, which complicates things for Wyoming. But the Cowboys defense is solid and takes advantage of mistakes. They are first in the MW in scoring defense (18.1) and turnovers gained (27).

Wyoming has faced the top four teams in the conference in scoring and held every one of them under their per-game average. Boise State, first at 33.9 points per game, beat the Cowboys 24-14. Colorado State, second at 33.1, lost at Wyoming 16-13. Air Force, third at 32.0, lost to the Cowboys 28-14. Utah State, fourth at 29.9, lost on its home field to Wyoming 28-23.

Fresno State (7-3, 5-1 in the MW) will not be playing with much margin for error in what figures as a tight, low-scoring game.

Back to Vegas, Wyoming (7-3, 5-1) opened as a 1-point favorite with a total of 41.5, the lowest on a game Fresno State or Wyoming has played this season.

Here are some things to watch:

Wind and run

Fresno State has been solid in its run game, grinding out 4.5 yards per play. It has not broken many big runs – it has only five plays this season of 20 or more yards and two of 30 or more yards – but has been able to keep the chains moving forward.

That may be an enviable asset on Saturday.

The weather forecast is sunny/wind and might as well throw in cold. The high is expected to be 39 degrees. But that wind could impact the Bulldogs’ passing game, especially if quarterback Marcus McMaryion has any lingering effects from the hit he took on his right hand in the victory at Hawaii and is scattering the ball around a bit too much. He was not limited at all in practice during the week, but it also wasn’t in the 30s or windy inside Bulldog Stadium, where they did all of their on-field game prep.

Fresno State will need to be in second-and-manageable and third-and-doable against that Wyoming defense, and it has been able to get there this season with its run game.

The Bulldogs rushing the ball on first down have averaged 4.8 yards per play, which is a good place to start, and they have met the challenge when up against better run defenses.

San Diego State is first in the Mountain West in rushing defense and Fresno State averaged 5.9 yards on first-down runs when beating the Aztecs.

New Mexico is fourth in the conference against the run and the Bulldogs averaged 6.2 yards on first-down runs when beating the Lobos.

It will see another good one in Wyoming. The Cowboys are fifth in the conference against the run, but in their front four have the top two in the MW in tackles for loss in end Carl Granderson (13.0) and tackle Youhanna Ghaifan (12.0).

Head games

Whether it’s Allen or a backup on the field the Bulldogs could have some brain-cramping tests to throw at the Cowboys’ quarterback.

For starters, they’re not good rushing the football – last in the Mountain West, averaging 3.1 yards per play and 102.9 yards per game; the Bulldogs, for some context, were last a year ago and they averaged 3.2 yards per play and 116.2 yards per game.

Defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer and staff have been able to run different pressures, disguises and coverages all season to make the going difficult for opposing quarterbacks, and given the stakes that is likely to happen again on Saturday.

How difficult?

In games against Group of Five competition the Bulldogs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 56.3 percent of their passes, have allowed only 5.1 yards per pass play and an efficiency rating of 100.12.

The 5.1 is the lowest allowed by defense in the Mountain West. The 100.12 also is the lowest against any defense in the conference.

And here’s the best part: The Bulldogs have had that success while defending 33.0 passes per game, which is the most attempted against any defense in the MW.

Sharp at the end

Fresno State has at times had trouble executing in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on only 23 of their 40 trips inside an opponent’s 20-yard line.

Field goals could only keep the Cowboys in it, hanging around, and they have had a knack for putting together a key drive almost out of nowhere. In the victory last week at Air Force, they had run five series and gained more than 10 yards in only one and no more than 17 yards in any of them, then busted 67 yards in six plays for a touchdown. After that score, they had it three more times and gained no more than 12 yards in any of them.

Touchdowns here apply pressure and if Allen is not on the field for the Cowboys, they could really struggle. Nick Smith, the backup, did lead that fourth-quarter drive at Air Force, but he doesn’t have much experience navigating tough situations.

He has attempted five passes all year.

The Bulldogs have to take advantage of their red-zone opportunities, and don’t count on Wyoming to help them along. The Cowboys have allowed opponents to score on 73.3 percent and score a touchdown on 53.3 percent of their trips into the red zone, ranking first and second in the Mountain West.

Wyoming is allowing just 2.1 yards per rush in the red zone and opposing quarterbacks have hit only 11 of 24 passes (45.8 percent) and have an efficiency rating of 92.46, which is the lowest in the conference and fifth in the nation.

This story was originally published November 17, 2017 at 3:08 PM with the headline "Fresno State at Wyoming: 3 things to watch, including more rude treatment of opposing QBs."