Can Fresno State men’s basketball capitalize on a Pac-12 scheduling break? Here are details
Fresno State and coach Vance Walberg caught a break when the Pac-12 recently suspended scheduling guidelines that would have added significantly to the degree of difficulty in finding and winning non-conference basketball games this season.
Those guidelines, which were adopted in 2019 when the conference included powerhouse programs like Arizona and UCLA, eliminated games against non-Division I opponents and road buy games, the basketball equivalent of a guarantee game in football where teams return home with a big check and almost always a loss.
“It’s definitely beneficial for our program,” Walberg said.
Under the Pac-12 scheduling guidelines, teams also were required to schedule games against opponents that had a five-year average NET ranking of 175 or lower, and they could not play road games against opponents with a five-year rating of 200 or higher. The goal was to boost strength of schedule ratings, the conference profile and NCAA Tournament resumes.
But those games have been staples for the Bulldogs’ program through the years when in the Mountain West Conference. The scheduling flexibility gained with suspension of the Pac-12 guidelines for one year has significant value for the Bulldogs and Walberg, in the third year of a three-year contract that includes an option for two additional seasons.
That especially is true in the first season in a rebuilding Pac-12, which on July 1 will have nine basketball-playing members who last season were in three different leagues. The new Pac-12 teams are scheduled to play a 16-game conference schedule.
More games to schedule in Pac-12
The NCAA approved a proposal last year to increase the maximum number of regular-season games a team could play to 32. That means some new Pac-12 teams will need to find opponents for additional non-conference games.
The schools coming from the Mountain West — Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Utah State and the Bulldogs — have played 20 conference games the past two seasons. They have 16 non-conference games to schedule this season. That’s five more than Fresno State played last season, presenting financial and logistical challenges for a program that has never had a big budget to buy non-conference games.
Gonzaga, Oregon State and Washington State last season played in the West Coast Conference, and played 18-game conference schedules. Texas State was in the Sun Belt, which also played an 18-game conference schedule.
Fresno State this season has games against Cal State Northridge and UC San Diego in the bank, the back end of home and home series that started last year.
Favorable early season scheduling?
With suspension of the Pac-12 scheduling guidelines, Fresno State can build as favorable-yet-challenging a schedule as possible. Fresno State last season worked its schedule to open with seven games in a row and eight of nine at home in the Save Mart Center, with a neutral site game against Pepperdine. It was a couple of good bounces away from a 9-0 start and before playing a buy game on the road at Arkansas for $100,000.
The Bulldogs went 5-3 in those games at the Save Mart Center, losing to USC Upstate by one point, to UC San Diego by five and to Cal State Bakersfield by five.
If the Pac-12 guidelines were in place, the Bulldogs would not have been able to schedule several of the opponents they played in that stretch, due to high NET ratings. The buy game at Arkansas also would have been against the guideline — the Bulldogs have typically played one and sometimes two buy games on the road.
“I think (suspending the guidelines) it’s the only thing you can do,” Walberg said. “We have different teams coming in, some teams have already had games set up from the year before. You have your home and homes. Sometimes you have a 4-year contract with somebody.
“It’s a smart decision. I could see doing it for one more year, too, because of the contracts.”
Early season wins will be key in Pac-12
The opportunity to get some early-season wins will be important, before the Bulldogs get into what figures to be a grinder of a Pac-12 schedule. Fresno State over the past four seasons, two under Walberg and two under former coach Justin Hutson, has won only 19 Mountain West games and 11 of those victories came against Air Force or San Jose State. Those two teams are a combined 30-122 (.197) in conference play in that stretch, with one winning season between them; San Jose State was 10-8 in 2022-23.
Instead of playing the Falcons and Spartans twice in conference play, Fresno State will match up in the Pac-12 against Gonzaga, San Diego State and Utah State.
Gonzaga has played in the NCAA Tournament 27 years in a row, the second-longest active streak in the nation, and has never won fewer than 23 games in a season under coach Mark Few.
Fresno State has not beaten San Diego State since 2019. It last beat Utah State in 2022.