As Pac-12 looks to rebuild, there’s one nagging question for Fresno State, Mountain West

Oregon State and Washington State are stuck in a conference expansion nightmare and still weeks from knowing whether they control Pac-12 Conference assets moving forward, which obviously will have implications for Fresno State and the Mountain West.

But as the only remaining members of the Pac-12 wade through limited options that include an attempt to rebuild a conference decimated by defections, there is one nagging question: Do they have the brand, market and upside to poach schools from other leagues and anchor a media rights deal that will be appreciably higher than Mountain West or American Athletic Conference deals?

Maybe.

“If they cobbled together say eight to 10 teams, knowing who is available, I think someone will pay some money and it will be somewhat better than what the Mountain West is getting now,” an industry source said.

The source said it would not be “life-changing money,” though that is defined differently by schools with a few pennies in their pockets compared to others at the bowl subdivision (FBS) level.

The Mountain West has a contract with Fox and CBS Sports that is worth $270 million and runs through 2026, generating about $4 million a year per team. The American Athletic Conference has a deal with ESPN that runs through 2032, with its membership receiving about $7 million annually.

Fresno State, likely a prime target for Pac-2 expansion due to its brand, market size and football program that has won 10 or more games and two conference championships in four of the past five non-COVID seasons, has for years struggled to keep up with the escalating costs in college athletics.

Any opportunity to increase media rights revenue would pique its curiosity.

There are too many variables at this point to know what a rebuilt Pac-12 could command in a media rights negotiation. It reportedly had a deal that would pay its members $23 million a year when Cal and Stanford, Oregon, Washington and Utah were still in the league, but would get considerably less without its top brands.

That could still be enough to build a conference by partnering with the best teams and biggest markets from the Mountain West and perhaps other leagues.

There are challenges to rebuilding the Pac-12, though.

Many challenges in rebuilding the Pac-12

Oregon State and Washington State are prominent at the moment — they were ranked No. 14 and No. 21 in the Associated Press Top 25 headed into a showdown on Saturday in Pullman, Wash. But sustained success has been elusive for both programs. Oregon State at 3-0 appears headed for a third winning season in a row, something it hasn’t accomplished since 2007, ‘08 and ‘09. It has been ranked in the final Top 25 poll twice since 2008. Washington State also is likely to finish with a winning record for a third year in a row and has played in a bowl game in the past seven non-COVID seasons, but has finished in the final rankings just once since 2003.

The markets and the brands also are not the biggest or brightest. If they were, they might have found a home as the Pac-12 disintegrated with UCLA and USC bolting to the Big Ten, which was followed by Colorado moving to the Big 12, Oregon and Washington to the Big Ten, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah to the Big 12 and finally Cal and Stanford moving across the country to the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The Pac-2, as it is now, also would be wading into a media rights environment that Washington State President Kirk Schulz acknowledged is not at its peak. Networks are losing revenue with traditional cable television in a slow decline, and other Power Five conferences have landed media rights contracts worth billions the past two years.

The Big Ten last year completed a deal worth $7 billion, which runs through 2030. The Big 12 signed a six-year deal worth $2.3 billion last October. The Southeastern Conference jumped to ESPN with a 10-year deal worth $3 billion that starts in 2024.

“I think we are astutely aware of the challenges right now in the media environment,” Schulz said, in a joint press conference Thursday with Oregon State officials. “I think one person said it’s the worst media environment they’ve seen in 30 years for some of this, so we’re doing everything we can to make sure we’re showcasing our value, but we also understand this is not an ideal market to have those types of discussions.”

But Oregon State and Washington State, facing a crushing loss in media rights money in a gutted Pac-12, need to try to generate as much revenue as possible. Both have received about 40% of their athletics revenue from media rights and conference distributions, between $36 million and $38 million a year last year.

Oregon State, Washington State and their options

One emerging option would be to play as a two-team conference in 2024 and perhaps 2025, giving them time to figure out a future.

“They could try to go at it alone for two years and maybe they can afford it if the Pac-12 has a whole bunch of money that they’re going to end up with,” the industry source said. “If they believe the Pac-12 is worth fighting for and the name is valuable enough, the assets are more valuable than the liabilities, which is what they are trying to figure out right now, maybe they play a quasi-independent schedule.

“Then in a couple of years, there are no more exit fees in the Mountain West and there are really not that many exit fees at all in the AAC, so maybe then they go shopping and pick some schools from the AAC and some schools from the Mountain West.”

A conference must have eight members to compete at the FBS level, but there is a two-year grace period to get there.

“We are vetting all sorts of opportunities here and doing that behind the scenes,” said Oregon State athletics director Scott Barnes, a former Fresno State basketball player, when asked about potential conference partners.

“To actually start to call out prospective schools in terms of what this all could look like, I wouldn’t do that, but I would just tell you this, the quality of the brand, of the market, of the product, is super important to us as we think about our path forward not just in the next year or two, but beyond.”

Barnes acknowledged Oregon State and Washington State have had conversations with the Mountain West and commissioner Gloria Nevarez. Leadership from the two schools during their press conference expressed a desire to continue competing at “the highest level,” which is another question to be answered. Would a rebuilt conference retain Power Five status and access to the College Football Playoff?

As the only conference without a TV deal for 2024, Oregon State, Washington State and the Pac-2 are hoping to have a clear direction by late in the fall.

This story was originally published September 24, 2023 at 10:19 AM.