With the Pac-12 crumbling and Big 12 filling up, what are expansion options for Fresno State?

Fresno State president Saúl Jiménez-Sandoval has had a seat at the conference realignment table for months, pushing the strength of the valley, the brand and the future in positioning the Bulldogs for a potential move to the Big 12 from the Mountain West. But after the Pac-12 lost five members on Friday and essentially fell apart, the Bulldogs’ future could be tied more to a league left in ruins.

So what’s ahead for Fresno State?

Cal and Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State are all that remains in the Pac-12, and they are without a media rights deal beyond the 2023 season. That could lead to a total reset, though that conference and those universities don’t seem to possess the wherewithal or gumption to start and build from zero, being the last of a once-storied league still standing.

But, here’s the reality for them. Washington State as an example received $37.4 million in media rights and conference distributions in 2021-22, according to Sportico. That accounted for 44% of its athletics revenue.

Oregon State is positioned similarly, and is finishing a renovation of its football stadium.

That makes it difficult to fold easily into the Mountain West Conference.

Fresno State in 2021-22 received a little more than $5 million in media rights revenues and conference distributions, and if any combination or all four of the remaining Pac-12 programs were to move into the Mountain West it would not provide a tremendous financial boost.

How would the Cougars or the Beavers make that work? Money is a big reason the Pac-12 imploded, and its four remaining members need as much of it as they can get in a next media deal.

If the four remaining Pac-12 schools set out to build a better conference on the West Coast they could poach the best from the Mountain West and perhaps add Southern Methodist, which was an option when the Pac-12 was a viable league. The exit fees from the Mountain West would be a huge hurdle, but a new conference could include several Top 50 television markets - San Francisco-Oakland, Denver, Portland, the greater San Joaquin Valley from Sacramento to Bakersfield, San Diego, Las Vegas.

It also would not be saddled with the smaller markets and athletics departments in the Mountain West.

Financial reality will hit remaining Pac-12 programs

Competing as independents would be an option for Stanford and perhaps Cal — those universities face questions the other two Pac-12 leftovers do not, with Olympic sports programs that compete in the Pac-12, but are not sponsored by the Mountain West.

If that were to happen, Oregon State and Washington State would have few options, other than to find ways to absorb the financial hit in the Mountain West.

But all four face difficult decisions, with their conference crumbling around them and limited time with which to work. It’s also worth noting Cal and Stanford are undergoing leadership changes, with Cal chancellor Carol Christ retiring next summer and Stanford president Marc Tessier-Lavigne on his way out due to an academic scandal.

Fresno State would seem an automatic add in a conference reset. It has a brand. It has a fan base. It has a market. It would be competitive immediately on the football field - the Bulldogs beat Washington State in the L.A. Bowl last season, beat Arizona State in the 2018 Las Vegas Bowl, have two wins over UCLA the past five seasons.

They also have pulled off historic firsts under coach Jeff Tedford, finishing 10-4 last season after a 1-4 start and before that finishing 12-2 in 2018 and 10-4 in 2017 after going just 1-11 the previous season.

But the Bulldogs should assume nothing in a new landscape when conference pillars like UCLA and USC choose to leave behind decades of history and rivalries. Nothing is sacred anymore.

The more schools involved in a reset likely makes it a more iffy proposition, but it also would benefit the Bulldogs.

The primary rivals for the Fresno State in the Mountain West are the obvious - San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State, Air Force and perhaps Boise State.

And, the more spots there are available the more likely the Bulldogs will fill one of them.

One other question to ponder: with The Big Ten at 18 teams with the additions of Oregon and Washington on Friday, could the Big 12 also look to hit that number now or in the future?

Arizona, Arizona State and Utah, which also departed the Pac-12 on Friday, puts the Big 12 at 16 teams in 2024, and Commissioner Brett Yormark has expressed a desire to get into the late-night West Coast TV windows and to expand the conference’s international reach, which are two reasons why Fresno State and Jiménez-Sandoval were able to stay in the game.

This story was originally published August 5, 2023 at 5:30 AM.