The Big Fresno Fair: Handicapping with Exacta Kenny for Oct. 16

Each day of the fair, Bee handicapper Exacta Kenny will break down one race on the card with a betting plan for $20. For Friday, he’s attacking race 7, a $27,000 allowance optional claimer with a nice field of nine fillies and mares:

▪ Analysis: This race brings together several horses in great form and looks on paper as one of the top races of the meet thus far. This race does not lack speed, starting with the Emerald Downs invader, No. 8 Citizen Kitty (morning line 5-1). This 3-year-old scorched a sub-44-second half-mile last time out before fading to fourth in a Washington-bred stakes race. This one cuts back a half-panel here to six furlongs and will be winging from an outside post. Unfortunately for this one, there’s plenty of speed to potentially soften her up. That includes No. 4 Marynetta (5-2), No. 6 Quick Luck (10-1) and No. 7 Estellara (10-1). The former has won four of her past six races and hasn’t run a clunker in over a year. She ran a respectable third in her comeback race in Stockton and will be tough to beat with Russell Baze aboard. She also boasts a win in his only previous start in Fresno, so only knock is price. No. 2 Missdang Sally (7-2) shows up in this spot with pep in her step, with three wins and two seconds in her past five races. In her last, she proved she could win at this level and rewarded her backers handsomely at odds of nearly 16-1. I didn’t back her that day, so I’m not ready to commit to a repeat performance in this tough field at diminished odds. Definitely a use in the exotics, but not on the win end for me. I’m taking a flier on No. 9 Papaclem’smidnight (12-1), who is jumping back on the dirt after a couple of dull efforts. With so much pace signed up here, I was looking for the best option to come from off the pace when the front-runners soften up. Trainer Clifford DeLima is solid across the board and I think this one will outrun her odds in this spot. We’re due for a big one for some weekend spending money.

▪ The plays: $10 win, $5 place on No. 9; 20-cent superfecta box ($4.80) 2-4-8-9

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The Big Fresno Fair horse racing

▪ Today’s first post: 1:15 p.m. (nine races)

▪ Schedule: Live racing continues through Sunday