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The Big Fresno Fair: Handicapping with Exacta Kenny for Oct. 15

The 2015 horse racing meet at The Big Fresno Fair runs Oct. 8-18.
The 2015 horse racing meet at The Big Fresno Fair runs Oct. 8-18. sflores@fresnobee.com

Each day of the fair, Bee handicapper Exacta Kenny will break down one race on the card with a betting plan for $20. For Thursday, he’s attacking race 7, a $40,000 starter allowance of six fillies and mares:

▪ Analysis: The final stretch of racing is already upon us after a busy first week, plus a couple of dark days to lick our wounds and cash in the spare change around the house. Big fields are nowhere to be found today, so I’m looking at this race as a good spot to beat a couple of short-priced horses. No. 2 Whyugottabesomean (2-1) enters after a couple of months away from the races but sports a solid set of workouts for top connections (Baze/Hollendorfer). Baze is winning at nearly 40 percent this meet and is scary to go against, but with this filly’s 1-for-12 lifetime record and five times the bridesmaid, I have to look elsewhere. She’s a horse that likes the lead, but is cutting way back in distance after two turf routes, and I think that will dull her speed just enough to give another horse a clear lead in this 5 1/2 -furlong sprint. That horse is No. 5 Latin’s Clock (9-2), who ran awesome at this level last out following a two-month freshening. This one has been near the wire in 5 of 6 career starts, including two wins, and should be tough to run down. No excuse with an easy lead. No. 4 Melinda’s Girl (5-2) likely will be overbet coming out of a race she won by 13 lengths, but she only beat two overmatched horses in that race and now faces winners for the first time. I’ll pass. No. 3 Council Rules (7-2) is the only other two-time winner in this race and should be running on strong while stalking the front-runners. Has a win on dirt and a recent workout on the track. Dangerous if our selection falters.

▪ The plays: Let’s get Latin’s Clock home as a wire-to-wire winner at a good price. $15 win on No. 5. $5 ice-cold trifecta 5-3-2.

Have a question, comment or hot tip for Exacta Kenny? Reach him at klewis@fresnobee.com.

The Big Fresno Fair horse racing

▪ Thursday’s first post: 1:15 p.m. (eight races)

▪ Schedule: Live racing continues through Sunday

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