The Big Fresno Fair: Handicapping with Exacta Kenny for Oct. 12

Each day of the fair, Bee handicapper Exacta Kenny will break down one race on the card with a betting plan for $20. For Monday, he’s attacking race 5, a $12,500 maiden claiming race with a full field of 10:

▪ Analysis: The holiday greets with us with an eight-race program and if you’re lucky enough to get the day off work, give a shoutout to Chris Columbus and head on out to the races in the name of exploration. We’ll shoot to cap off the opening week with a juicy exacta, and that will be our focus here. With 10 horses signed up, there should be some good value. No. 5 Chugabug (7-2) heads south after an improved effort at Emerald Downs in which she finally broke well from the gate and sprinted to a close runner-up finish. She lures Baze and will likely be the favorite entering the gate. She had every shot to win last out when dropping to this level and couldn’t get it done in a tiny field of four, so we’ll try to beat her. No. 10 Too Much Desert (5-1) debuted at Del Mar and found the waters way too deep. She then showed some improvement on the drop at Los Alamitos and plunges even further here. The Harris Farms-bred filly fits in this logical spot with a good outside post. No. 8 Sorta Mine (9-2) has run two quality races at Emerald Downs and shows the kind of speed that can be tough to beat at this level and at this 5-furlong sprint distance. Comes out of a live race and anything trainer Jason Homer sends out can’t be ignored. No. 6 Blazing Valentine (6-1) takes the biggest drop in class coming out of two maiden special weight races and could easily fire here. No. 7 Red Hot Tip (20-1) is a first-time starter for a quiet barn, but with three workouts over this surface and the “who knows” factor, we’ll use and hope for big balloons in second place. What a fun, competitive race.

▪ The play: Let’s key Sorta Mine on top of an exacta, with four horses underneath. $5 exacta 8 over 5/6/7/10 ($20)

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The Big Fresno Fair horse racing

▪ Monday’s first post: 1:15 p.m. (eight races)

▪ Schedule: Live racing continues through Oct. 18. Racing will be dark on Tuesday and Wednesday