The Big Fresno Fair: Handicapping with Exacta Kenny for Oct. 8

Each day of the fair, Bee handicapper Exacta Kenny will break down one race on the card with a betting plan for $20. For Thursday, he’s attacking Race 8, a low-level claiming race over 5 1/2 furlongs with a field of nine geldings:

▪ Analysis: The final race on the opening-day card offers the biggest field of the afternoon and a chance to extract some value on an otherwise sleepy card. This $2,500 claiming level race is about as low as you get here in California, so for 25 Benjamins, one of these fellas could be yours! No. 4 Mr. Ornery (5-2) enters as a legitimate favorite. He’s in good form for one of the best claiming trainers around, John Martin. I remember this horse from years ago as a turf specialist in Southern California; he’s now found a home on the dirt surface, with a first, second and third this summer since being under the care of Martin. Not much to knock, other than the price, so I’ll look to beat him with No. 7 Destiny Knocks (9-2). In these low-level claiming races, with older horses who’ve been around for a while, I look for ones that have had success here in the past. Every track and surface is unique, so it’s wise to take note if a horse likes it in Fresno. That’s the case with Destiny Knocks, who last fall squeezed in two races here and won both. There’s some recent history also, with Mr. Ornery and Destiny Knocks coming out of the same race in Stockton on Sept. 13. Mr. Ornery edged Destiny Knocks that day in a close finish that had four horses battling for the wire. But, now back in Fresno, and with a workout on the surface, a good outside post and a jockey upgrade to one of Northern California’s finest in Juan Hernandez, let’s turn the tables on the favorite. If you’re looking for horses to use underneath in trifectas and superfectas, No. 1 Relentless Warrior (12-1) and No. 6 Sound of Money (12-1) could pick up the pieces at good prices. Best of luck!

▪ The plays: $5 win on No. 7; $5 exacta box ($10) 4-7; 10-cent superfecta ($2.40) 7 over 1-4-6-9 over 1-4-6-9 over 1-4-6-9; 10-cent superfecta 1-4-6-9 over 7 over 1-4-6-9 over 1-4-6-9

This story was originally published October 7, 2015 at 4:34 PM with the headline "The Big Fresno Fair: Handicapping with Exacta Kenny for Oct. 8."