Otto Lopez Is Hitting .333 on the Marlins. The Numbers Behind the Number Tell a More Complicated Story.
We've covered the fantasy baseball second base position in preseason articles but in retrospect we probably should have written more about Marlins middle infielder Otto Lopez.
In his first 66 games this season, Lopez is leading the major leagues with a .341 batting average and he's hitting the ball harder than he ever has in his big-league career. His 135 wRC+ is tied for being the 18th best in baseball and Lopez's 2.5 WAR is the eighth highest in MLB. Lopez's hard contact gains are likely to continue, however most major production models suggest that we're likely to see significant regression in his batting average.
The Real Contact Quality Improvements in 2026
Hard-Hit Rate Up Six Points and Career-Best Exit Velocity
Lopez has been hitting the ball with authority this season as evidenced by significant increases in his quality of contact and bat tracking statistics:
| Season | Hard Hit % | Avg Exit Velocity | Bat Speed | Blast Contact % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 38.3 | 88.5 | 71.7 | 17.1 |
2026 | 44.3 | 90.3 | 72.1 | 19.3 |
According to Statcast, Lopez's hard hit rate is in the 63rd percentile this season compared to being in the 26th percentile in 2025. Lopez's improvement in his hard-hit profile is the result of specific changes he's made to his approach at the plate. Lopez started using "TheStack" hardware to help improve his bat speed. Similar to old school weighted donuts players add to their bats in the on deck circle, "TheStack" offers what they refer to as an engineered training club that allows users to add customized weights to it. In addition, Lopez has focused on using his lower body, instead of his upper body, in his swings and he believes that change has helped him hit the ball harder this season.
Lopez's hard hit gains haven't caused his home run rate to increase this season, which makes sense, since his barrel rate hasn't changed much and he's hitting more balls on the ground. Lopez is, however, on his way to setting a career high in doubles. He hit 21 in 143 games last season, and 23 in 117 games in 2024. He already has 18 this season.
The Warning Signs Hidden in the .341 Average
Career-Low Walk Rate and Inflated BABIP
One area of concern related to Lopez's ability to continue to hit for a very high average is his low walk rate and his extremely high BABIP which is far out of range from his career norm.
Lopez's 3.6% walk rate is down 51.35% compared to last season and his strikeout rate has increased by 2.0%. Lopez is also swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone. His 2026 chase rate is more than 6% higher than last season's rate. To make matters worse, his 2026 chase contact rate has decreased by over 3% compared to last season.
Lopez has an unsustainably high .389 BABIP. MLB league average is .288. His 2025 BABIP was just .264 and even if we include his average from this season, his career BABIP is still just .313.
What the Projection Systems Actually See
99-110 wRC+ Versus the Current 138
Statcast's expected stats suggest that Lopez's early season production doesn't match his underlying quality of contact. Specifically, Statcast's .296 xBA is .045 points lower than his actual BA. Statcast's expected stats still suggest that Lopez is a fantasy viable shortstop and second baseman, however they reinforce the argument that we are going to see a significant drop off in his overall batting average.
Another factor that can cause Lopez's batting average to fall is when, or if, his BABIP begins to normalize and move closer to his career average. Several of the major projection models believe it will, and they predict that his batting average will likely regress as well. ATC projections expect Lopez's rest of season BABIP to fall to .305, leading to a rest of season batting average of .272.
Fantasy Baseball Strategy and Season-Long Expectations
Sell-High Windows and Realistic Rest-of-Season Value
Despite expectations that Lopez's batting average will significantly decline as the season progresses, he is still on pace to produce a very good fantasy baseball season. Even ATC projections, which appears to be one of the most conservative projection models when it comes to Lopez's offensive production, predicts that Lopez's overall rest of season stats will make him a very viable fantasy baseball middle infielder. By the end of the season, they expect his overall batting statistics to be as follows:
| BA | HR | Runs | RBI | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
.300 | 13 | 84 | 71 | 21 |
Lopez is already an attractive trade candidate because of his multi-position eligibility (shortstop and second base) but if you're looking to sell high, use ATC's overall projection stats to help you negotiate a favorable trade.
Recent trades in Yahoo! fantasy baseball leagues have Lopez being traded straight up for Rays SP Nick Martinez. He was also traded for Bo Bichette and Alec Burleson, and for Seiya Suzuki and Chase DeLauter in separate two for one deals.
Based on the aforementioned trades, if you have enough depth at shortstop and second base it might be worth your while to make Lopez available in trades.
On the other hand, despite the fact that Lopez's current batting average is unsustainable, his hard hit gains are real and will be a contributing factor in his continued rest of season fantasy baseball relevance. Lopez is a good sell high candidate, but if you need him on your roster to make a run at your league's championship sit back, enjoy the ride and pat yourself on the back for having the foresight to have either drafted him or added him via your league's waiver wire.
Questions About Otto Lopez, Answered
Why is Otto Lopez hitting .333 in 2026?
Otto Lopez is producing a high batting average because of improved hard-contact metrics and exit velocity, but an elevated BABIP is also playing a significant role in the results.
Is Otto Lopez hard-hit rate improvement real in 2026?
Yes. His hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, bat speed, and blast contact rate have all improved compared to 2025, supporting the legitimacy of his contact-quality gains.
Is Otto Lopez .333 average sustainable for fantasy baseball?
The underlying indicators suggest regression is likely. His BABIP is well above both league average and his career norm, while projection systems expect a lower batting average going forward.
Should I trade Otto Lopez in fantasy leagues right now?
Managers with sufficient middle-infield depth may consider exploring sell-high opportunities, particularly if trade partners value his current batting average and overall production.
What is Otto Lopez true 2026 projection?
The article cites projection systems and ATC rest-of-season forecasts that expect a decline in batting average while still viewing Lopez as a productive fantasy middle infielder.
How does Otto Lopez BABIP affect his fantasy value?
A BABIP significantly above league average can inflate batting average results. If Lopez's BABIP moves closer to his career levels, his batting average would likely decline even if the contact improvements remain.
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This story was originally published June 11, 2026 at 7:32 AM.