Tigers Face Fascinating Casey Mize Decision As Postseason Hopes Dim

As the Detroit Tigers‘ postseason odds dwindle, their odds of becoming sellers by the MLB trade deadline have only increased.

According to FanGraphs, the Tigers’ postseason odds stand at 9.5 percent through May 30, better only than two other American League teams: the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels.

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Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, has had an up-and-down tenure in Detroit. Lately, he’s been up.

Through the end of May, Mize is 2-3 with a 2.27 ERA in nine starts. Despite limited run support from the Tigers (22-38 through the month’s end), he is averaging more than a strikeout per inning while averaging a 0.97 WHIP.

The right-hander isn’t the main focal point of the Tigers’ trade rumors. That would belong to left-hander Tarik Skubal, the twice-reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, who’s on the injured list recovering from an elbow procedure.

While Skubal is an obvious trade candidate - he won’t sign a long-term extension before the season ends, and would reject any qualifying offer from the Tigers at year’s end - the trade candidacy of Mize is more nuanced.

At 29 years old, Mize’s counting stats suggest he’s in his prime. His secondary stats - his swing-and-miss rate, ability to limit hard contact, and command (6.5 percent walk rate) - would instantly make him one of the best available starters before the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

On the other hand, the Tigers might be able to talk themselves into re-signing Mize for less than it would cost to re-sign Skubal at the end of the season, an argument against trading him prior to the deadline.

If he stays in Detroit through the end of the season, Mize would certainly reject the qualifying offer (a one-year contract worth the mean salary of MLB's 125 highest-paid players) after a strong platform year. But if the Tigers can get a large prospect haul in exchange for Skubal, the draft-pick compensation they would receive if Mize signs elsewhere in 2027 could entice them to let him play out the season in Detroit.

The Tigers’ collapse to the bottom of the American League was stunning. President of baseball operations Scott Harris might prefer cashing in on a haul of prospects in a singular package for Skubal - who’s likely headed elsewhere next year anyway - rather than a complete teardown if the team continues losing at its current clip.

If so, Mize could find himself in Detroit after the deadline passes. If not, Harris holds two of baseball’s best trade chips in one starting rotation.

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This story was originally published May 31, 2026 at 6:34 PM.