Padres have mostly been pretty good - just not in a few glaring spots

WASHINGTON - Craig Stammen has hardly blinked while answering the questions again and again about his team's deficient offense.

"We're not as good as we expected right now," the Padres manager said. "We haven’t been scoring as many runs as we’ve come accustomed to with these types of players in the lineup. They know it. We know it. The whole world knows it. We keep talking about it every day. We keep trying new things and new ideas, and we keep working our tails off.

"And that’s one thing that these guys have done over the course of this season, is they have worked their butt off, and they have worked on the little things. And that’s how we’ve won so many games. They found a way to be great at the little things that have helped us win games, win close games. Eventually, we’re going to break through, and we’re going to have these guys hitting on all cylinders. Right now is not when it’s happening, but hopefully soon."

That is far more of an "if" than anyone in the organization wants to acknowledge.

It might seem unfathomable that Manny Machado would not drastically improve his .169 batting average and Jackson Merrill would not improve his .200 batting average and Fernando Tatis Jr. would not start hitting home runs in bunches.

But those improvements might not happen - or at least not to the extent they need to for the Padres to maintain a postseason course.

First, let's acknowledge that the Padres have won the "so many games" Stammen referenced.

They are 31-24, tied with the Diamondbacks for the fourth-best record in the National League.

But in the context of what that means going forward, the Padres' place in the standings is accompanied by an asterisk - one as big as the hole in the top of their lineup.

They are one of two MLB teams to not have any qualifying players with an OPS of at least .700. In fact, the Padres and Mets are the only teams to not have two such players. And the Mets are 23-33.

The Padres are the first team since the 1968 Orioles to have a batting average as low as .218 and the first team since the 1989 Astros to have an OPS as low as .651 and have started the season winning at least 31 of their first 55 games.

The Padres, who will begin a series here Friday against the Nationals, are one game beyond the one-third point of the season.

This is about the time we can generally start to make judgments about a team.

The sample size is large enough that history can generally be trusted as a harbinger of the future. And history says teams that are in playoff position now usually end up in the postseason.

Over the past four years, since Major League Baseball expanded the postseason field to six teams in each league, all but six teams that were in playoff position a third of the way through the season were still there at the end of the regular season.

There was a lot of movement inside those six - such as a team in the No. 2 spot at the end of May ending up as the No. 4 seed - but just slightly more than 10% of teams that ended up playing in October were not lined up to do so by the end of May.

So that is good for the Padres. Maybe.

There have not been as many teams this close to playoff position at this point in any of the previous four years. There were, as of Thursday, five NL teams within 1½ games of the final wild-card spot and within three games of the top wild-card spot.

That makes it an eight-team race for three spots or an 11-team race for six spots.

So it might be a bad year to be good. Or to not be good. Or to maybe be good.

Because the Padres are one of those things.

Which one will largely be up to Machado and Merrill and Tatis

If you have heard anything from Machado lately, it is that the Padres can't keep winning like this if they keep hitting like this.

"That's very, very doubtful," he said on Tuesday. "We can't sustain it."

And then on Wednesday, with Tatis at least reaching base regularly if not rounding them ever, Machado spoke specifically of he and Merrill.

"Our team needs us, and we're trying to get back on track," he said. "I think a lot of these guys in here who've been carrying the load earlier in the year, we're starting to feel it as a group overall. So we've got to pick up the slack."

The Padres not only have to maintain a spot in the playoff chase, they have to demonstrate they have staying power.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is said to be more than willing to continue dealing from the organization's farm system to bolster the roster before the trade deadline. The Padres are in their window of contention while Machado and Xander Bogaerts remain closer to 30 than 40. They don't want to waste these years.

The team's new owners are expected to be approved by late June or early July and could even provide the payroll flexibility to acquire a veteran rental or two.

With the deadline a little more than two months away, sources have said the Padres are compiling a list of potential targets every bit as ambitious as the past two seasons, when Preller made the team substantially better at the deadline.

However, if they are on the bubble come mid-July but the offense is not clicking, there would be no reason to mortgage the future.

Remember, Preller didn't make any substantial moves in 2021 or ‘23 even though the Padres were technically in contention.

Now, there are signs this team is better than either of those two years, the only seasons since 2020 that did not end with the Padres in the playoffs.

They are doing a lot of things well.

How else could it be explained that they are as good as they are when they have been as bad as they are?

Luck?

Well, there has been some of that.

But there has also been a mostly reliable bullpen and a starting rotation that has held its own.

There has been a defense that is not quite spectacular but is far better than merely solid.

Until recently, there was a fair amount of clutch hitting and good situational hitting.

There have even been spurts of hot hitting by players that are entirely capable of spurts but shouldn't be counted on to carry the team over long stretches.

There has been a first-year manager learning on the fly, mostly pushing the right buttons, pulling the right levers and always maintaining a positive outlook.

What follows is a look at what has brought the Padres to this point.

As advertised

Padres relievers would share the team MVP award if the season ended today.

They have not only protected numerous slim leads but were the enablers of most of the team's 14 comeback victories.

The bullpen has blown eight leads, which might sound like a lot. But it has them pretty much on pace with last season, when the Padres had what was considered the league's top bullpen.

Their 3.07 bullpen ERA is second in the majors to the Dodgers (3.03), and Padres relievers have a 1.69 ERA over the past 22 games (90⅔ innings).

Now, the Padres had a good bullpen last summer, and they went out and got closer Mason Miller.

They feel similarly about the need to be even better this year, though not to the point that they will have to send away one of the game's best prospects to get a Miller comp.

But another high-leverage arm - preferably a left-hander - seems likely. It might be a big name like Aroldis Chapman, who figures to be available. It could be one of the Royals' lefties, Daniel Lynch IV or former Padre Matt Strahm.

All things considered

The rotation has been an adventure, but the fact it has a 4.47 ERA (20th in MLB) is fairly remarkable considering the Padres have gotten four starts from Nick Pivetta and none from Joe Musgrove. That’s two-thirds of what was expected to be the core of their rotation and about 20% of the team's payroll.

Both are working toward a late-summer return, but the Padres are also expected to be players at the trade deadline for the likes of Tarik Skubal, Sandy Alcantara and Freddy Peralta.

What the team has to work with until help arrives in some form has been about as good as could have been realistically hoped.

Michael King has assumed the No. 1 role he might have assumed anyway, and even still searching for consistent command of his best pitches has a 2.76 ERA, the ninth-bes mark in the NL.

The Padres won eight of Randy Vásquez’s first nine starts while he posted a 2.68 ERA and allowed more than three runs just three times. But he has allowed seven runs in 10 innings over his past two starts, both losses.

Three pitchers the Padres signed after spring training began, including one they signed after the season began, are going to have to continue to eat innings to give the Padres a chance to win.

Walker Buehler has been a pleasant and necessary surprise, even providing the Padres with the occasional quality start. Griffin Canning has shown the same promise in his five starts. Lucas Giolito was signed in April and made his debut earlier this month, and his first two starts suggest he can provide the steady contribution the Padres anticipated.

It's in there

The Padres have not come from behind to win once since May 13. They haven’t had a hit with a runner in scoring position in 35 at-bats.

But they still have more victories decided in the final three innings (14), more comebacks from deficits of three runs or more (six) and more victories earned in their final offensive half-inning (eight) than any team in the major leagues.

And as recently as May 7, they were batting .257 with runners in scoring position, 12th in the major leagues.

And despite failing to move runners over recently, the Padres still rank second in MLB in converting productive out opportunities.

Defense

Somehow, while moving Gavin Sheets between first base and left field and having NIck Castellanos in right field and making Tatis a second baseman, the Padres have played steadily in the field.

Ty France is an unflappable first baseman, Tatis is becoming increasingly comfortable and increasingly spectacular at second, and Bogaerts is arguably playing at a Gold Glove level at shortstop. The metrics say the Padres’ three catchers have controlled the run game as well as any group. Jackson Merrill robs home runs more often than he hits them.

The Padres rank fourth in MLB in fielding run value and 12th in outs above average.

As much as anything, though, they are simply making almost all the outs they should. They have made three fewer errors than any team in the league and lead the majors in fielding percentage.

Bottom heavy

The 2026 Padres not named Manny Machado have a higher batting average and higher OPS than the 2022 Padres not named Manny Machado did through 55 games. That 2022 team had two more victories to this point in the season.

This is probably as deep as the roster has been since 2020.

That is the most frustrating thing for people in the organization, some of whom wonder what the Padres' record would be if Castellanos' .802 OPS in 15 games from late April to mid-May had been a supplement to the offense rather than having been absolutely necessary. Same with Sheets hitting .300 with a .983 OPS since May 5 and having a .958 OPS over 11 games in early April. And with France hitting .316 with a .936 OPS over 28 games from April 12 through Sunday. And with Miguel Andujar having an OPS above .800 through the season's first 50 games.

So, anyway, it comes back to the offense.

The only time Stammen has even appeared to blanche at a question was when he was asked one night this week, for what had to feel like the thousandth time, to assess his team at the one-third point of the season.

"Yeah, I’m looking forward to the next two-thirds of the season," he said with a smile. "It’s going to be great."

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This story was originally published May 28, 2026 at 4:31 PM.