NHL draft lottery: How the process works, and what are each team's chances?

SAN JOSE - The San Jose Sharks most likely have much different expectations for Tuesday’s NHL draft lottery than they did the last two years.

After having a 25.5% chance of winning the first draft lottery in both 2024 and 2025, while also knowing they couldn’t fall further than third overall, the Sharks this year have just a 5% chance of having the necessary four-digit combination of numbers to secure the first overall pick at the NHL draft in June.

The Sharks also have an 5.2% chance of having the second overall pick and a 64.4% chance of having the ninth overall selection. Barring a trade, the Sharks will not draft any lower than 11th overall.

Before the 2024 and 2025 drafts, Macklin Celebrini and Matthew Schaefer, respectively, were widely considered the top players available. Now that title appears to belong to forward Gavin McKenna, who was tied for fifth in NCAA Division I scoring this past season with 51 points in 35 games as a freshman at Penn State. Listed at 6-foot and 170 pounds, McKenna played with Medicine Hat of the WHL from 2022 to 2025.

“I like the fact he went out and challenged himself this year by playing in college,” NHL Central Scouting’s John Williams told NHL.com last month. “We all know he’s not big and strong yet, so college hockey was not going to be easy for him. He’s so smart and skilled that he’s been able to produce exceptionally well.”

Other top players available include winger Ivar Stenberg, Central Scouting’s top international skater, and North American skaters Caleb Malhotra of the OHL’s Brantford Bulldogs, a center, and defensemen Keaton Verhoeff of the University of North Dakota, and Chase Reid of the OHL’s Soo Greyhounds.

If the Sharks draft ninth or 10th, players who could be available include defensemen Alberts Smits (Jukurit-Liiga), Carson Carels (Prince George-WHL) or Daxon Rudolph (Prince Albert-WHL), and forwards Viggo Björck (Djurgårdens-SHL), Tynan Lawrence (Boston University), and Oscar Hemming (Boston College).

Sharks general manager Mike Grier said last month that he is open to trading his first draft pick if the right deal comes along. But he also has no problems adding another top player to an already impressive prospect pool.

“Looking, initially, at some of the lists, we still have a lot of work to do here over the next two months,” Grier said. “But if we’re fortunate enough to kind of stay in the top 10 or 11, I think we feel really good about the type of player we’ll be able to select there.”

The lottery will be broadcast on ESPN at 4 p.m.

The lottery is conducted in two phases: the first to determine the No. 1 overall pick, and the second to determine the No. 2 pick. There is a limit on the total number of selections (10) that a team participating in the draft lottery can "move up" if it wins one of the lottery draws. Thus, only the top 11 seeds are eligible for the first overall pick.

For each of the two drawings, 14 ping pong balls, numbered 1 through 14, are placed in a lottery machine. That allows for 1,001 possible combinations (one combination is deleted to make it an even 1,000). Each lottery team is assigned a certain number of four-number combinations. The Sharks have 50 combinations.

The lottery machine selects four balls, and the resulting four-number series is matched against a chart showing every possible combination. The team that has that combination wins the lottery.

If a team slotted 12th to 16th wins the draw, the top pick automatically goes to the No. 1 team.

The NHL draft will be at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. The first round will be on June 26, and the second through seventh rounds will be on June 27.

NHL draft lottery chances (only top 11 are eligible for No. 1 overall pick)

1. Vancouver Canucks 25.5%

2. Chicago Blackhawks 13.5%

3. New York Rangers 11.5%

4. Calgary Flames 9.5%

5. *Toronto Maple Leafs 8.5%

6. Seattle Kraken 7.5%

7. Winnipeg Jets 6.5%

8. Florida Panthers 6.0%

9. San Jose Sharks 5.0%

10. Nashville Predators 3.5%

11. St. Louis Blues 3.0%

12. New Jersey Devils 2.5%

13. New York Islanders 2%

14. Columbus Blue Jackets 1.5%

15. St. Louis (from Detroit Red Wings) .5%

16. Washington Capitals .5%

*The Maple Leafs sent their first-round pick to the Boston Bruins in March 2025 as part of the trade for defenseman Brandon Carlo. But it is top-five protected.

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This story was originally published May 4, 2026 at 5:55 AM.