Why NHL draft lottery still holds intrigue for Mike Grier, San Jose Sharks
SAN JOSE – The NHL draft lottery on Tuesday might not feature the same dramatic buildup for the San Jose Sharks as it did the last two years when they had the best chance of selecting first overall.
By finishing 24th in the NHL's overall standings this season instead of dead-last in 32nd, the Sharks are much more likely to wind up with the ninth or 10th overall pick than the first or second.
What could be more intriguing is what the Sharks do with that pick – and the one they hold later in the first round – at the NHL draft in late June.
With an eye on making the playoffs next season, Sharks general manager Mike Grier said last month that he's not opposed to trading one of his two first-round picks if he feels he can improve his team sooner rather than later.
Besides their own pick, the Sharks also hold the Edmonton Oilers' first-round selection, which will end up 19th or 20th overall.
"It’s the offseason, so you never know what happens," Grier said two weeks ago. "But we will definitely be listening and open to teams that might want to move a player, and if that means moving one of our firsts, I think it’s something we’ll be open to and (will) listen to."
The Sharks have a 5% chance of winning Tuesday's lottery and earning the right to select first overall for the second time in three years. The Sharks drafted center Macklin Celebrini at No. 1 after they won the 2024 lottery and took center Michael Misa with the No. 2 overall selection last year after they fell one spot.
The Sharks this year have a 10.2% chance of jumping into the top two picks of the draft. They also have a 64.4% chance of drafting ninth, a 23.5% chance of drafting 10th and, in a worst-case scenario, a 1.7% chance of falling to 11th.
Certainly, drafting in the top two for a third straight year would give Grier and his staff plenty of options, including taking a player who could help the Sharks in the next one or two seasons, bolstering an already strong pipeline.
But their own pick could also have plenty of purchasing power in a potential trade.
The Sharks know they need to improve their shaky defense corps this offseason if they want to make a playoff push in 2027, and dealing a top 10 selection as part of a deal to bring an established top-pair blue liner to San Jose could help address the issue.
Grier took a similar approach to last season's draft, but ultimately selected Misa, who finished his rookie season with 21 points in 45 games as he became a middle-six centerman for the Sharks.
"I’m usually pretty open to listening on anything, really, if it makes sense and makes us a better hockey team," Grier said when asked about trading the Sharks' own pick. ‘So, we’ll see what happens in the lottery here. But I would say it’s something that I’m not closed off to at this point."
Grier was clear, though, that if the Sharks do trade a first-round pick, it won’t be for a short-term fix.
“It’s my job to remain disciplined and kind of stick to the plan and not get too excited,” Grier said. “I think that’s when teams — it doesn’t matter what the sport is — get in trouble. They try to accelerate things too quickly and make maybe some rash decisions and give up some things to try and chase something too early, and you kind of sell out to go all in too early.
“So it’s up to me to kind of stay disciplined and try and add the right pieces to the group without going overboard.”
The Sharks' Pacific Division rival, the Vancouver Canucks, finished with the NHL's worst record at 25-49-8 and have a league-best 25.5% chance at winning the first lottery.
The other teams with the best chances include the Chicago Blackhawks (13.5%), the New York Rangers (11.5%), the Calgary Flames (9.5%) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (8.5%).
Every team that finished in the bottom 11 of the NHL standings this year has a chance to win the first lottery and select No. 1 overall, as teams, if they win, can move up a maximum of 10 spots. A second lottery with slightly altered percentages is held to determine which team will have the No. 2 overall pick.
Miracles do happen
Despite the weighted odds, the event hasn't always been predictable as in eight lotteries over the last four years, four teams have improved their draft positions.
Just last year, the New York Islanders, despite having a 3.5% chance of winning the first lottery, saw one of their 35 four-digit combinations (out of 1,000) come up. They selected defenseman Matthew Schaefer, the favorite to win the Calder Trophy as the NHL's rookie of the year, after he had 59 points in 82 games.
The Utah Mammoth, who entered with a 1.5% chance after they finished 19th overall in 2024-25, won the second lottery to move up 10 spots to No. 4, giving the Sharks the second overall selection. Utah selected center Caleb Desnoyers.
The top two players available in this year's draft are presumed to be Penn State forward Gavin McKenna and Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg. North Dakota's Keaton Verhoeff and Sault Ste. Marie's Chase Reid are believed to be among the top defensemen available.
The draft will be held June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. The Sharks, as of now, have eight picks, with one in the second round, two in the fourth and one in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds.
"You never know what comes up on draft day," Grier said. "If a team wants to trade up or trade down, you can’t be caught without knowing the players on the list and knowing who might be available in different scenarios."
NHL draft lottery chances (only top 11 are eligible for No. 1 overall pick)
1. Vancouver Canucks 25.5%
2. Chicago Blackhawks 13.5%
3. New York Rangers 11.5%
4. Calgary Flames 9.5%
5. *Toronto Maple Leafs 8.5%
6. Seattle Kraken 7.5%
7. Winnipeg Jets 6.5%
8. Florida Panthers 6.0%
9. San Jose Sharks 5.0%
10. Nashville Predators 3.5%
11. St. Louis Blues 3.0%
12. New Jersey Devils 2.5%
13. New York Islanders 2%
14. Columbus Blue Jackets 1.5%
15. St. Louis (from Detroit Red Wings) .5%
16. Washington Capitals .5%
*The Maple Leafs sent their first-round pick to the Boston Bruins in March 2025 as part of the trade for defenseman Brandon Carlo. But it is top-five protected.
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This story was originally published May 3, 2026 at 5:55 AM.