Padres Daily: Rotation equation; Machado and the roster shuffle

Good morning,

The Padres have not had many games go the way last night's 8-3 loss to the Cubs did.

You can read in Jeff Sanders' game story (here) about how an impressive night by Xander Bogaerts, who is looking a lot like the Boston version of himself, was not enough to overcome the continued lack of production from elsewhere in the heart of the order and the absence of Manny Machado. (Included in that story is a recap of a walk by Bogaerts that came at the end of one of the most remarkable plate appearances of the season.)

The struggles by Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. were not unique. Merrill was 0-for-4 last night, is batting .205 batting this season and doesn't have an extra-base hit in his past 39 at-bats. Tatis was 0-for-4, is batting .248 and is still seeking his first home run.

What was different was that the Padres could not overcome their young stars' stagnation.

They trailed early, came back to tie the game, lost the lead and had a chance to tie again before things unraveled on a couple middle relievers.

It was just the second time in the 10 games in which the Padres have come back from a deficit that they did not go on to win.

The last move manager Craig Stammen made last night was to bring Wandy Peralta into the game in the seventh after David Morgan walked Seiya Suzuki to start the inning.

That Suzuki was the fifth Cubs batter to walk and the fourth of those free baserunners to score helps explain what went wrong for the Padres.

Stammen departed shortly after making the pitching change to get ready for a flight. He will attend a funeral today. Bench coach Randy Knorr managed the final couple innings last night and will manage today's series finale.

Clunky losses happen from time to time for even the best teams.

Operating under the premise the Padres have a chance to be one of the better teams in the major leagues this year, perhaps the most interesting thing to come from last night was that Walker Buehler wasn't terrible.

"Walker did a great job for us tonight," Knorr said. "Kept us in the game for five, and that’s all we can ask from him."

That might be overstating it regarding Buehler's outing. But it aptly describes the role of a back-of-the-rotation starter.

After two walks to start the second inning and a two-out double by Dansby Swanson that gave the Cubs a 2-0 lead, Buehler navigated trouble to leave the bases loaded in a scoreless third, retired the Cubs in order in the fourth and got the first two outs in the fifth before a single and a hit batter ended his night.

Kyle Hart stranded the two runners Buehler left, so his final line was 4⅔ innings, three hits, two runs, three walks and four strikeouts.

"Just not good enough,." Buehler said. "Got to get deeper and get more efficient. I think we’ve kind of established that the stuff has improved, and I’m in a lot better spot. But I haven’t quite had that one that it all kind of clicks together in terms of the execution."

There was a point in the third inning where Buehler had thrown more balls than strikes. He finished with 48 strikes among his 92 pitches.

"Maybe a little bit of a mentality switch going to the next one in terms of trying to throw the ball over the f-g plate," he said.

Buehler's frustration is amplified because it has felt like he has improved. His velocity is up. He is holding his mechanics for longer stretches.

"I’m tired of being really close, you know?" he said. "I think that’s a feeling that’s tough to deal with, because you feel so good about the work that you put in and the work that the staff puts into you. And then there seems to be one kind of fall apart in the middle of it. And then, ‘Oh, we’re back.' It’s just frustrating."

So what to make of Buehler and his future with the Padres?

The Padres are mulling some interesting decisions regarding the rotation coming up soon.

Griffin Canning's rehab assignment cannot go any longer than Sunday unless it is extended with agreement from Canning.

And he threw 68 pitches in five innings last night, allowing three hits, walking one and yielding just one unearned run for Triple-A El Paso. He might be ready to join the rotation. If not, he almost certainly is no more than one start away.

What then?

None of the Padres starters can be sent down to the minor leagues.

Buehler (5.40 ERA in 25 innings over six starts) and Germán Márquez (4.38 ERA in 24⅔ over five starts) have been good enough to remain in the rotation. The odd man out is likely Matt Waldron (12.46 ERA in 8⅔ over two starts). However, a strong start today could be cause for rethinking that.

The Padres could go with a six-man rotation for a time when Canning returns, as Friday begins a stretch of 10 games in 10 days and 18 games in 19 days. But Lucas Giolitio has to be called up by mid-May via the terms of the contract he signed last week, and they are not going with seven starters.

This isn’t quite a matter of being the proverbial good problem to have. Buehler hasn’t pitched well enough for that.

What it is, though, is arguably the most important issue facing the Padres.

Their biggest potential problem is that their offensive stars are not producing enough. That is not debatable. But they have to operate under the assumption Merrill and Tatis will get hot and that Machado will stay hot, because they have virtually no chance at being as good as they think they can be without that happening.

The biggest unknown remains the starting rotation.

Lineup shuffle

Machado did not play last night after he departed Monday's game due to cramping in his left calf.

He could be back today, though the Padres having tomorrow off could tempt them to give Machado another day that would automatically be two.

Jeff Sanders wrote (here) in his game preview about Jake Cronenworth playing third base yesterday in Machado's place, meaning Cronenworth has now started at every infield position. (He has also pitched but has not yet fulfilled his dream of playing catcher.)

Yesterday's newsletter alluded to the fact there was a thought in the organization that a week in altitude had contributed to Machado's calf issue. It is difficult to play a mile (and higher) above sea level, and the Padres played four games that were around three hours long on the trip that concluded Sunday.

So Cronenworth was going to play third base at some point in the next few days even before Machado cramped up.

"There was a big possibility that Manny was going to get a day off before this homestand was over," Stammen said.

Thus, Cronenworth was asked by Stammen last week in Colorado if he would be amenable to starting at third base.

The reason for going to Cronenworth was that Miguel Andujar, as reported over the weekend, is dealing with hamstring tightness. And Cronenworth is available to play third because Fernando Tatis Jr. is available to play second base.

Machado's planned rest - his second day off already after he played 156 of the Padres' first 157 games last season and was beyond dragging by that point - is part of the team's deliberate approach to try to keep players as fresh as possible and able to sustain a high level of play into October.

It would be surprising if Ramón Laureano and possibly Bogaerts don't get a day by the end of the homestand, even with tomorrow's scheduled off day.

And the 31-year-old Laureano, who has never played more than 132 games in eight big-league seasons, has had more days off than any of the Padres' regulars.

The likelihood of the Padres facing two left-handed starters this weekend against the White Sox also provides opportunity for Nick Castellanos and Andujar to play multiple games.

Part of the challenge for the Padres as they have gone about their intentional lineup juggling is that Matthew Boyd on Monday was just the seventh left-handed starter the Padres have faced. That is due in part to two left-handers having been scratched from their scheduled starts against the Padres, who have had an MLB-low 202 plate appearances against lefties this season.

Stammen spoke this week about the difficulty of effectively utilizing the roster.

"If you’re really good at it, you can keep the guys hot and play them when they’re hot," Stammen said. "That’s the hard part - keeping everybody happy but also keeping guys hot and fresh and all that kind of stuff. It’s a juggling act that I’m enjoying at the moment, but it’s definitely tough, you know, making everybody happy and also hot at the same time."

Tidbits

• The Padres have not lost consecutive games since dropping two straight to the Giants in the fourth and fifth games of the season. The Padres are 18-6 since then.
• The Padres are 6-0-1 over their past seven series going into today's rubber game against the Cubs.
• Last night's loss halted the Padres' home winning streak at nine games. They are 10-5 at Petco Park and 9-5 on the road.
• By getting Edward Cabrera out of the game with two outs in the sixth, the Padres have now gone seven games without an opposing starting pitcher making it through six innings. They had 12 quality starts (at least six innings, no more than three earned runs) thrown against them in their first 22 games.
• Ty France has multiple hits in three consecutive games, one off his career high. He is 6-for-11 with eight RBIs in that span and is batting .317 with a .998 OPS in 44 plate appearances this season.
• Cronenworth went 0-for-3 last night and is batting .149/.274/.207, all career lows through his first 28 games of a season. His .482 OPS ranks 178th out of 181 qualifying hitters.
• Bryce Johnson laid down the Padres' first bunt hit of the season in last night's fifth inning.
• MLB acknowledged to the Padres that the umpires got the call wrong on Matt Shaw's dribbled grounder that was ruled fair in the ninth inning Monday. It was an undeniable shame Mason Miller ended up allowing a hit on a foul ball and that it helped the Cubs scoring. But Miller did allow two more hits and also threw a wild pitch before closing out a 9-7 victory.

All right, that's it for me.

Early game today (1:10 p.m. PT).

Talk to you tomorrow.

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