2027 NFL Mock Draft: Arch Manning, Jeremiah Smith headline way-too-early projections
I don't buy the idea of a "weak" draft class.
Every draft gives 32 teams a chance to get younger, cheaper and better: the holy trinity of roster building.
The board may not be overflowing with blue-chippers. The depth may get uncomfortable by Saturday afternoon. But every team in the NFL still gets three days to find starters, role players and cap relief.
It’s almost impossible to leave the weekend without improving in one way or the other.
Almost.
The Browns have spent years testing the limits of my theory.
Regardless, the 2026 NFL Draft class had solid streaming-release energy.
Not unwatchable. Just missing the theatrical pull.
It had a few plot twists, but inside and outside the league, it was viewed as underwhelming. Next year already looks camera-ready and prepared to walk the red carpet.
The 2027 class is different.
It has the quarterback buzz of 2024, including an updated model of the Manning prototype, plus blue-chip talent scattered across premium and secondary positions. And floating above the whole thing is Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith, a wide receiver prospect who may actually be impossible to overhype.
Smith deserves top billing. No wideout has gone No. 1 overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996, back when draft rooms had more landlines than laptops.
That drought is old enough to have lower-back pain and strong opinions about mortgage rates. Smith is good enough to end it, depending, of course, on which franchise wins the race to the bottom.
My process begins 18 months out. My current 2027 watchlist is at 79 players. By December, it will be well over 200.
After the all-star games and combine, it will expand again, because who doesn’t like arguing about a person’s arm length in February?
So before I fully close the book on the 2025-26 draft cycle, I couldn't leave without offering an early look at the players poised to define the upcoming college football season before the 92nd "Annual Player Selection Meeting" lands in Washington, D.C.
Obviously, a way-too-early mock draft is not about precision. It is not prophecy. It is not a sacred text.
That said, 18 of the 32 players in last year's early mock were drafted in the first three rounds last week, including 12 in the first round. I also correctly paired the New York Giants with Francis Mauigoa and the Chicago Bears with Dillon Thieneman.
Overall, 25 of the 26 players from that mock who entered the draft were selected. Six returned to school.
The one who wasn't drafted, San Diego native Isaiah World, signed with the Los Angeles Chargers as a priority free agent. World and cornerback Jermod McCoy - also in last year's mock - were two of the more notable prospects whose draft stock was altered by injury.
World tore his ACL in the College Football Playoff semifinal against Indiana. McCoy went from surefire first-rounder to the first pick of the fourth round because of concerns over a possible degenerative knee condition.
Every year, I offer the same disclaimer: treat this less like Nostradamus and more like the Farmer's Almanac.
We're not predicting the future. It’s more like reading the weather patterns.
This year's draft order is based on DraftKings' Super Bowl LXI futures. As per usual, Las Vegas hates your team. I do not.
Here's the first round of my way-too-early 2027 NFL Mock Draft:
FIRST ROUND
1. Arizona - Arch Manning, QB, Texas
The Cardinals drafted Carson Beck in the third round last week, but Beck likely didn’t show enough promise if Arizona ends up drafting this high next year. Manning returned to Austin after a 2025 season with 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 78.0 QBR. He enters 2026 as the early favorite to go first overall. It’s obvious why: famous last name, natural tools and he isn’t a statue like his uncles. Next season, he’ll face the kind of scrutiny normally reserved for the British royal family and Cowboys coaches. He does not need to be perfect to go No. 1. He just needs to be excellent enough for teams to believe the Manning mystique will follow him to the league.
2. Miami - Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
The Dolphins essentially made a two-year commitment to QB Malik Willis this offseason, and he’s not working with much in South Beach. After a major leap forward with the Ducks last season, Moore may be the purest passer of this group. He still has to prove his decision-making can hold up against elite defenses though.
3. N.Y. Jets - Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
If the Jets are picking this high again, they are not passing on a quarterback with real dual-threat value. Chambliss’ size (6-foot, 200 pounds) will be scrutinized, but he’s a creator who can extend plays, threaten defenses with his legs and bring legitimate downfield aggression to the position. With three first-round picks in next year’s draft, Jets General Manager Darren Mougey has all the ammunition he’ll need to secure the first overall pick if he so desires.
4. Cleveland - Brendan Sorsby, QB, Texas Tech
The good news is Deshaun Watson’s contract mercifully comes off the books after next season. The bad news is the Browns have drafted three quarterbacks the last two years. While I actually like two of them, I’m always going to side with the worst-case scenario when it comes to Cleveland. Sorsby is built like an NFL starter (6-3, 235), throws with enough velocity to stress every area of the field and adds real value as a runner. It was reported this week he had entered treatment for gambling addiction and is under NCAA investigation, so who knows how that shakes out. I’m keeping him here to underscore how talented he is.
5. Las Vegas - Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio St.
The Raiders have their QB, but still appear woefully thin at receiver. Smith is a coverage dictator with size (6-3, 223), speed and finish ability. He doesn’t need to work on anything, just refinement. Continue to win with pace, leverage and detail, rather than simply overpowering defenders with talent.
6. Tennessee - Carter Smith, T, Indiana
The Titans need an upgrade over Dan Moore Jr. at left tackle. The 6-foot-5, 313-pound Smith has the polished, boring-in-the-best-way profile teams crave on the blind side. He’s made 41 straight starts, and was the first Hoosier to win Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year.
7. Atlanta - Colin Simmons, Edge, Texas
The James Pearce Jr. situation still seems far from settled, so adding another premium edge talent would make sense for the Falcons. The 6-3, 240-pound Simmons logged 12 sacks and three forced fumbles in 2025 as a true sophomore, earning second-team All-American and first-team All-SEC honors. The next step is becoming even more complete versus the run and continuing to develop counters once tackles overset to his speed.
8. New Orleans - David Stone, DT, Oklahoma
Stone fits a Saints front that is trying to bridge from the Cam Jordan era into their next version. Interior disruptors with size and movement skills do not last long. Stone offers 1-tech/3-tech versatility with the range to chase and the potential to collapse the pocket without needing schematic help. He has always carried blue-chip pedigree. The next step is turning flashes into every-week pass-rush finish.
9. Carolina - Trevor Goosby, T, Texas
The Panthers would be justified targeting a tackle here after drafting Georgia’s Monroe Freeling in the first round last week. Both Ikem Ekwonu and Rasheed Walker are free agents after next season. Plus, Taylor Moton turns 32 in August and is only signed through 2027. Goosby has the length, size (6-7, 325) and pedigree teams chase at left tackle. He earned an 83.3 grade on Pro Football Focus and first-team All-SEC recognition after replacing Kelvin Banks Jr. as a sophomore.
10. N.Y. Giants - A’Mauri Washington, DT, Oregon
The Giants still have to fill a hole inside after the Dexter Lawrence trade, and the 6-3, 330-pound Washington is the kind of massive interior presence who can help do that. He brings rare interior athleticism and pass-lane disruption, which matters because nothing ruins modern offense faster than pressure through the front door.
11. Washington - Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
The Commanders still need a WR2 after the 2026 draft. Clemson’s Antonio Williams will likely settle into the slot in the pros. Coleman joined the Longhorns in the spring after producing 56 receptions for 708 yards and five TDs at Auburn last season. He has the recruiting pedigree and tool set of a first-round receiver. He features the size (6-3, 200), vertical ability and the upside to become a true boundary target.
12. N.Y. Jets from Indianapolis - Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
If the Jets use a top-three pick on a quarterback, coming back for a premium corner is exactly how you accelerate the rebuild. Moore was a unanimous All-American and Thorpe finalist in 2025.
13. Tampa Bay - Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio St.
Baker Mayfield is entering the final year of a 3-year, $100 million contract so it’ll be interesting to see how the Buccaneers handle this. Sayin (Carlsbad High School) is efficient, accurate, and advanced from the pocket, though scouts will keep circling back to size (6-1, 208) and mobility concerns. The Heisman finalist will need to prove he consistently generate offense when the first read disappears and structure fails.
14. Pittsburgh - Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma St.
Mestemaker led the FBS in passing yards with 4,379 and was tied for second with 34 TD passes at North Texas before transferring to Stillwater. He is an aggressive thrower who does not mind challenging defenses vertically. The key for him in 2026 is proving that his numbers translate against tighter windows and better athletes.
15. Minnesota - Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri
With both Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason facing free agency, the Vikings could opt for a tone-setter like Hardy in the draft. He’s returning for his junior year after rushing for 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2025, including a 300-yard game against Mississippi State. Hardy's appeal is obvious: contact balance, burst and workload proof. The thing he still has to prove is complete third-down value, especially in pass protection and route detail.
16. Jacksonville - Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, LB, Notre Dame
Linebacker is not always a sexy first-round pick, but modern three-down linebackers who can cover, run and blitz are worthy of the investment. Viliamu-Asa fits that mold. The Jaguars would be drafting range, versatility and some needed second-level speed into their defense. A possible replacement for Devin Lloyd (Otay Ranch High School), who they lost in free agency this offseason.
17. N.Y. Jets from Dallas - Dylan Stewart, Edge, South Carolina
The Jets’ trifecta concludes with a premium edge talent. The 6-5, 245-pound Stewart has top-10 traits if the down-to-down consistency arrives.
18. Chicago - Mateyo Uiagalelei, Edge, Oregon
The Bears still need D-line help after the 2026 draft, so this is a strong fit. Uiagalelei produced 9½ tackles for loss, six sacks and two forced fumbles, earning All-Big Ten honors last season as a junior after he had 10½ sacks his sophomore season. He offers size (6-5, 272), power and enough versatility to fit multiple fronts, which gives him value beyond a simple sack number. He looks like the kind of edge defender who can play heavy or light depending on the call. To climb even higher, he has to finish more consistently and win tighter at the top of the rush.
19. Cincinnati - Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia
Both D.J. Turner and Daxton Hill are free agents after next season. Robinson had four interceptions and seven pass breakups for the Bulldogs as a redshirt freshman in 2025. He fits both man and zone structures, which makes him easy to project. The next step is cleaner discipline through routes and at the catch point, because grabby corners get exposed fast in the NFL.
20. Denver - K.J. Bolden, S, Georgia
Broncos’ starting free safety Brandon Jones will be a free agent after next season. Bolden is a versatile playmaker who can tackle, cover and move around the formation, which makes him a useful piece for a defense that’s already close to elite.
21. Detroit - Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
All-Pro tight end Sam LaPorta is entering into the final year of his rookie contract. Some scouts believe Johnson is a better overall prospect than Kenyon Sadiq. He would give the Lions another matchup problem who can work in-line or flex out, and that matters for a team that likes to stay multiple without changing personnel.
22. Houston - Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss
Lacy would take pressure off the Texans’ passing game if the offensive line settles down. He runs with the burst and acceleration of a player who can flip games in a handful of touches. He was third in the FBS in rushing yards (1,567), second in touchdowns (24) and first in carries (301) in 2025 as a true sophomore, including a monster 224-yard, three-TD performance against Florida.
23. Philadelphia - Sabien Brown, CB, Alabama
Riq Woolen only signed a one-year deal with the Eagles this offseason. Brown posted 39 tackles, five pass breakups and two pick-sixes in 2025 as a true sophomore for the Crimson Tide. He looks like a player who can grow into a major outside role. The question is functional play strength against bigger, more physical pro receivers.
24. Dallas from Green Bay - Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama
The Cowboys still face questions about George Pickens' long-term status. Coleman-Williams is the type of athlete worth betting on late in the first: explosive, sudden and dangerous down the field. Like Pickens, he gives a quarterback real margin for error.
25. New England - Will Echoles, DT, Ole Miss
Echoles has the body type (6-3, 310), strength and frame to grow into a real NFL interior presence, and the Patriots have always valued big men who can hold up inside.
26. L.A. Chargers - Kelley Jones, CB, Mississippi St.
Several Chargers’ defensive backs are facing free agency after next season, including Derwin James, Donte Jackson, Tony Jefferson and Deane Leonard. Jones’ frame will get attention first, and deservedly so. He offers rare length (6-4, 195) for the position and the kind of matchup ability that becomes valuable in a division full of big-bodied pass catchers and creative route trees.
27. San Francisco - Jordan Seaton, T, LSU
The 49ers have waited long enough to find an understudy for future Hall of Famer Trent Williams. Seaton gives them a premium tackle talent to develop. The Colorado transfer has the feet and pedigree to keep climbing. The next step is turning athletic flashes into more consistent technique with his hands and pad level.
28. Kansas City - Cayden Green, OL, Missouri
Offensive line is never really off the board when you have Patrick Mahomes as your franchise centerpiece. Green’s inside-outside flexibility is exactly the kind of thing the Chiefs can maximize. He can help at multiple spots early and start somewhere long term.
29. Baltimore - Quincy Rhodes Jr., Edge, Arkansas
The 6-foot-6, 276-pound Rhodes produced like a first-rounder in 2025 with 43 tackles, 15½ tackles for loss and eight sacks, making him the first Razorback since 2021 with three multi-sack games. That is Ravens catnip: length, power and developmental upside on the edge.
30. Seattle - John Henry Daley, Edge, Michigan
Daley had 17½ tackles for loss, 11½ sacks, two forced fumbles and an elite 18.3% pressure rate with Utah before joining his former coach, Kyle Whittingham, in Ann Arbor. He suffered a non-contact Achilles rupture last November, but is expected to be a full go by summer.
31. Buffalo - Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana
The Bills’ post-draft to-do list still includes figuring out Keon Coleman's role. Marsh gives Buffalo more size (6-3, 213) on the perimeter and another target who can win outside the numbers for Josh Allen. The Michigan State transfer also provides protection against any Coleman uncertainty.
32. L.A. Rams - Austin Siereveld, G, Ohio St.
Both starting guards for the Rams, Steve Avila and Kevin Dotson, are free agents after next season. Siereveld gives them a potential plug-and-play option with enough flexibility to help them absorb injuries and keep the offense functional.
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