Arch Manning Draws Concerning NFL Draft Prediction Ahead of 2026 Season
The 2026 NFL Draft came in with a clear headliner: Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, capping one of the most dominant college seasons in recent memory.
Mendoza rewrote expectations, finishing a perfect 16–0 campaign with 41 touchdown passes, six interceptions, and a first-ever national championship for the Hoosiers.
That level of production made him the consensus QB1 in a relatively thin class.
But as soon as Mendoza came off the board, the league's focus shifted to 2027, and the quarterback conversation is already taking shape.
On Monday, NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah reshaped that outlook with a bold early prediction: Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, not Texas star Arch Manning, is his pick to go No. 1 overall.
“I lean conservative, so I’ll go with the Oregon quarterback over Arch (Manning),” Jeremiah said. “I’ll go Dante Moore just because I’ve seen him play at a higher level for a longer period of time. Arch has all the ability in the world, and I’m looking forward to really studying him. I’ve just done more work on Dante because I thought he was coming out (of college).”
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Arch arrived at Texas in 2023 as the No. 1 recruit in the country, carrying the weight of the Manning legacy as the grandson of Archie Manning and nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning.
After sitting behind starter Quinn Ewers for two seasons, he took over in 2025 and quickly became one of the most scrutinized players in college football.
The production was solid, posting 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, seven interceptions, plus 399 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground, but it didn't fully match the expectations.
Scouts were looking for a true breakout: dominant efficiency, elite decision-making, and consistent control of games. Instead, evaluators saw uneven stretches, missed reads under pressure, and a lack of takeover performances in marquee moments.
That's why 2026 is massive for Manning.
It's not just about production. It's about answering the questions that emerged after an underwhelming first full season as the starter.
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Moore, meanwhile, is coming off a strong season in which he totaled 3,565 yards, 30 TDs, and 10 INTs, while completing 71.8% of his passes and leading the Ducks to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Unlike Manning, whose development has been more gradual, Moore has stacked meaningful reps against high-level competition and shown growth in key areas.
For the last two years, Manning has been treated as the inevitable top pick. Football royalty with elite traits, elite pedigree, and elite expectations, he's been penciled in as QB1 almost by default.
Jeremiah's take signals that he still has a lot left to prove.
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This story was originally published April 27, 2026 at 4:26 PM.