Kurtenbach: The 49ers bailed on the first round. It was the smart move

The 49ers planned to let the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft come to them on Thursday.

It didn’t make it down to them.

So the Niners did the unthinkable to the casual fan: They looked at a shiny, exciting, marketable first-round pick and tossed it back into the pond like a three-eyed carp.

In fact, they did it twice.

It's the kind of move(s) that makes mock-draft enthusiasts and YouTube highlight connoisseurs cry into the void of social media, and it absolutely infuriates folks who had hours of programming to fill on Thursday night, but the 49ers' decision to trade themselves out of the first round was extremely prudent.

The Niners didn't punt; they extended the drive. More importantly, they stayed true to their board.

Because when your scouting department tells you there isn’t a first-round talent left to select with your first-round pick, you don’t force anything. You bail.

And, if you’re good at your job, you set yourself up beautifully for Day 2 and beyond.

That’s what the Niners did.

Let me, once again, remind you about this 2026 draft class: The dirty little secret that no one in a tailored suit on a television set wanted to admit is that the talent pool flattened out faster than a week-old soda.

Every draft board is different, but after the Bears took safety Dillon Thienemen with pick No. 25, there was nothing left for the Niners to select in the first round.

And seeing as there’s a big tranche of players, starting at pick No. 26 Thursday and running to somewhere around pick 50 tomorrow, that all carry a similar grade, there was simply no reason to pick at No. 27.

So the Niners moved to pick No. 30. And then, again, to pick No. 33 - out of the first round altogether.

For their trouble, they added a pick on Day 3 and turned a fourth-rounder into a third.

Were the trades value plays?

Not really.

Someone trying to prove how smart they are will surely squawk that San Francisco took two less-than-winning deals on the archaic Jimmy Johnson trade-value chart.

But in a draft class this underwhelming, you take what you can get.

Especially when you consider that NFL executives are hoarding 2027 draft picks because next year’s draft is projected to be eons better than this one. Look at the frenzy of activity on Thursday night. Trades were happening left and right, yet only one 2027 pick - a seventh-rounder - changed hands.

And trading down beats the alternative scenario: Some general managers will stare at a board devoid of elite talent and convince themselves that a developmental edge rusher is the next Lawrence Taylor just because it's late, and they want to make a splash on national television; they want to talk about something at their press conference.

But why pay a premium for a player at No. 27 when you can get his doppelgänger (draft grade-wise) half a round later?

And “pay” is the operative word.

The money might not be the primary motivation, but the financial ramifications are strong here, and they surely should be a factor.

By sliding out of the first round and settling into pick No. 33, the 49ers are going to save roughly $5 million on that player's rookie contract compared to the guy who went at No. 27.

More importantly, they dodge the looming specter of the fifth-year option.

First-round picks come with that mandatory, fully guaranteed fifth-year tag, which has become more of a hostage negotiation than a team benefit in recent years.

Depending on the position, that option can wreck a salary cap. If you draft a guard - say Texas A&M’s Chase Bisontis - at No. 33 tomorrow night, you get him on a standard four-year deal. You skip the fifth-year drama - and having to pay a guard left-tackle money, per the tag - entirely. It's a clean getaway.

Why dive into that morass when you don’t believe the player is a true first-round talent?

So, what's the endgame for Friday? The 49ers are sitting pretty at No. 33. They can snag a Day 1 starter at a non-premium position, like Bisontis, at a discount, avoiding the fifth-year headache while bolstering the offensive line.

But it doesn’t stop there. Thanks to their Thursday-night maneuvering, the Niners now possess the extra draft capital necessary to package some picks and jump back up to grab another Top 50 prospect.

Football games might be won in the trenches, but great rosters are built on the margins. And no detail is too small.

John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan know that having two solid contributors on cheap deals is vastly superior to having one overpriced guy who is statistically no better than the field. The Niners essentially traded one overpriced asset for the flexibility to draft two cost-controlled contributors.

It isn’t flashy. It won’t sell jerseys on Friday morning. It’s unquestionably bad for the poor soul on the social media team who has to read the comments.

But you don’t win championships by reaching for second-round talent in the first round just to hear the commissioner call your team’s name.

The 49ers played the board as it lay, then played the trade-down game, and then played the cap game, and, in turn, might have played the rest of the league.

This looks mighty smart.

We’ll find out if that’s, indeed, the case on Friday.

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This story was originally published April 23, 2026 at 9:35 PM.