49ers mock drafts: Will the team take a quarterback or focus on defense in Round 1?
For the first time since early September, a weekend approaches with no NFL games scheduled.
With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 31-9 rout of the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl this past Sunday, the 2020-21 season ended and left fans with no weekend action after more than five months of games.
(OK, the Pro Bowl wasn’t played out on a field on Jan. 31 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it still happened virtually.)
Despite no new games happening until the preseason — assuming there is one this year, since it was canceled in 2020 — there’s always plenty of news to report around the league. Over the next two months there will be free agency, the scouting combine and, of course, the league’s biggest offseason event.
This year’s three-day NFL draft is scheduled to kick off Thursday, April 29. The 49ers, coming off an injury-riddled 6-10 season, are currently slated to have the 12th overall pick in the first round, assuming the draft choice isn’t traded.
So who is the early favorite to have their name called by Commissioner Roger Goodell on behalf of San Francisco? With all the talk about what the team will do with Jimmy Garoppolo and the quarterback position, the wide opinion is the 49ers will draft a defensive player.
Here’s what national analysts are saying:
ESPN
Updated Feb. 9
ESPN offers randomly scheduled mocks from longtime analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay.
The most recent post comes from McShay, who has the 49ers trading down with the Chicago Bears and selecting in the 20th spot. With that choice, he has San Francisco taking Trevon Moehrig, a junior safety out of TCU.
Moehrig had 47 combined tackles (30 solo), two interceptions and nine passes defensed in 10 games for the Horned Frogs this past season.
“Safety Jimmie Ward is currently the only defensive back on the entire roster under contract beyond next season. Perhaps the 49ers look to cornerbacks ... but the value and need of Moehrig is just too great to miss,” McShay wrote. “He’s my No. 13 prospect and picked off six passes over the past two seasons.”
Two days before McShay’s post, Kiper made his prediction, keeping the 49ers at No. 12 overall and putting them on Patrick Surtain II, a junior cornerback from Alabama.
In 13 games for the national champion Crimson Tide, Surtain had 37 combined tackles (22 solo), an interception returned for a touchdown and nine passes defensed.
“Surtain, my top-ranked corner, could be a starter on Day 1,” Kiper wrote. “He had 27 pass breakups and four interceptions over three seasons at Bama. At 6-2, Surtain has the size and speed to play on an island and lock down wideouts.”
(Note: An ESPN+ subscription is required to see full analysis from Kiper and McShay.)
NFL.com
Updated Feb. 8
The league’s official website provides mock drafts from multiple analysts. The most recent post comes from Chad Reuter, who has the 49ers selecting Caleb Farley, a redshirt junior cornerback from Virginia Tech.
Farley opted out of the 2020 season due to the coronavirus, but he was a first-team All-Atlantic Coast Conference selection in 2019, when he had 20 total tackles (14 solo), four interceptions (including one pick-six) and 12 passes defensed in 10 games for the Hokies.
“Starting corners Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett will be free agents in March. Farley’s versatility would allow the 49ers to play him outside or at safety if they require help there in the future,” Reuter wrote.
CBS Sports
Updated Feb. 9
Like NFL.com, CBS Sports offers insight and analysis from multiple writers. The freshest take comes from Ryan Wilson, who is the first in this roundup to have the 49ers looking at offense.
The pick here is Jaylen Waddle, a junior wide receiver from Alabama. He only played six games for the Crimson Tide, but caught 28 balls for 591 yards, an average of 21.1 yards, and scored four touchdowns. According to the school, he’s also Alabama’s career leader in punt return average at 19.3 yards per carry.
“Wide receivers usually get pushed down as we get closer to the draft but my goodness, imagine Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Jaylen Waddle on the field together with Kyle Shanahan dialing up the plays,” Wilson wrote.
USA Today
Updated Jan. 28
Analyst Nate Davis also has the 49ers taking Surtain.
“The Niners will need to replenish their corner depth chart with the contracts of Richard Sherman, Jason Verrett, K’Waun Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon all set to expire.” Davis wrote. “Even if they were sticking around, Surtain – son of the former Pro Bowler whose name he shares – would be a worthy selection following a season when he was named SEC defensive player of the year.”
Sports Illustrated
Updated Feb. 7
Analyst Alex Gilstrap is also on board with San Francisco selecting Farley.
“The 49ers are going to be tasked with re-tooling this defense, as they project to lose much of the talent on that side of the football this offseason,” he wrote. “With each of the top quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft already selected and failing to move up to get one themselves, this is likely the position that is looked at by this front office.”
Walter Football
Updated Feb. 10
Draft analyst Walter Cherepinsky makes frequent updates to his mock draft. He’s another analyst putting the 49ers on offense: North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance.
The Bison were held to just one game this past season due to COVID concerns, but Lance was stellar a season prior, accounting for 42 total touchdowns in leading North Dakota State to its third consecutive FCS Championship victory.
The redshirt sophomore completed 66.9% of his passes for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns and no interceptions in 16 games. Lance also ran for 1,100 yards on 169 carries, good for 6.5 yards per tote, and 14 scores.
“The 49ers have been linked to some quarterbacks this offseason,” Cherepinsky wrote. “It seems as though they want to give up on Jimmy Garoppolo. If they can’t find an upgrade via a trade partner, perhaps they’ll spend this selection on a replacement. Trey Lance has some nice physical tools, and he’s coming off a huge year in 2019.”
The Ringer
Updated Jan. 31
Analyst Danny Kelly says the 49ers will draft help on defense, with Michigan edge Kwity Paye as the choice.
Paye played in just four games this past season due to a groin injury, but as a junior in 2019 he had 50 combined tackles (26 solo), including 12.5 for loss, 6.5 sacks and a fumble recovery in 10 games for the Wolverines.
“The Niners should get both Nick Bosa and Dee Ford back from injuries next season, but that pass-rush group still needs more depth. Paye adds just that: He’s big, explosive and physical, and would give San Francisco yet another pocket-disrupting menace off the edge,” Kelly wrote.
San Diego Union-Tribune
Updated Jan. 27
Draft analyst Eddie Brown makes it three votes for Surtain. He also points out the 49ers could use help at offensive line, defensive back and edge.
“Surtain, a former five-star recruit, has NFL DNA (father was an All-Pro corner who played 11 seasons) and prototypical traits,” Brown wrote. “He was named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year.“
This story was originally published February 12, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "49ers mock drafts: Will the team take a quarterback or focus on defense in Round 1?."