It’s a Super matchup, but who wins? Here are some things to watch, and clues

Some years, a team will get hot at the end of the season and kind of sneak into the Super Bowl and all week leading up the game you’re thinking, “They’re going to get run out of the building.”

Not this year.

There are a lot of cool story lines with the Chiefs and Buccaneers, a lot of things to keep an eye on during the game and even an X Factor in play, which could determine which team is celebrating on Sunday night.

Running through them you have to start with Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and Tom Brady.

I think hiring Steve Spagnuolo is one of his best moves Andy Reid has made in Kansas City. They’ve been able to pair Pat Mahomes and that offense with a defense that, while still susceptible to some things, is attacking and will mix it up and play unconventional coverages to at least confuse the quarterback. They’ll make him hesitate, make him think.

Spagnuolo has done it before, starting with Super Bowl XLII when he was the Giants’ defensive coordinator and they beat the Patriots 17-14. The Chiefs beat the Patriots last season 23-16 and when they beat Tampa Bay in November 27-24 they had two interceptions and had held the Bucs to just 10 points through three quarters.

When you look at Kansas City it’s just so multiple on defense now – you heard Brady talk about that during his press conference.

When Spagnuolo was first with the Giants he would bring a lot of different pressures, coming from different looks, but there were some things that you could see pre-snap that would give you tips and you could hit big plays.

But he has evolved since then, and really understands what he has to work with. He has Tyrann Mathieu and he has Chris Jones up front, so he’s playing with those pieces and you’ll see Mathieu playing middle linebacker in a Cover-2 scheme or he’ll play the nickel and blitz off the edge.

From Brady’s perspective, he can go back and look at what happened when Spagnuolo was with the Giants and he can look at the games he’s played when Spagnuolo was with the Chiefs, but it’s different every time and that’s the beauty of what Steve is able to do now. You can’t pin him down and say, “This is what he is.”

To have that unknown, not knowing what you’re going to get from a defense, that can be difficult. Brady will have to really dive into it. Obviously, they played earlier this season so the Bucs have a feel. But they’ll have to try to get into Spagnuolo’s mind and how he looks at the Bucs’ offense to figure out what he’s going to try to do to attack them.

If Spagnuolo can cause enough hesitation it’s advantage Chiefs, especially with their quarterback and their offense on the other side.

That’s a dynamic I’ll be watching – how they plan to attack the Bucs.

Will Tyreek Hill have another big day?

The Bucs don’t really have an answer for Tyreek Hill – they physically can’t match up with him in man coverage. He had 269 yards and three TDs in that last game, so obviously they can’t do what they tried to do there.

Todd Bowles likes to pressure, but I don’t think they can do that against this team and feel good about it, because they just don’t have an answer for Mathieu. They might be able to slow him down with coverage and things, but I’d be nervous for them if they can’t get pressure on Mahomes.

Hill could end up with another big game.

A lot riding on Bucs’ front

The Bucs do have Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett, though, and I think one of the story lines fans need to watch is what Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy do with Eric Fisher out with an Achilles’ injury.

They’ve had to shift and adjust a lot up front on the offensive line – it reminds me of when they came up to Bear Pascoe in the Super Bowl and said, “’If one more guy gets hurt, you have to play tackle.’ Bear looked at me like, ‘What? I’m going to play tackle against the Patriots in the Super Bowl?’”

The Chiefs are close to that point, and we saw what happened to Green Bay in the NFC championship game. David Bakhtiari, the Packers’ left tackle, was out and Pierre-Paul and Barrett just had a field day – five sacks and six hits on the quarterback between them.

The Chiefs have a little more that they can do to keep a defense on its heels with their speed and the number of guys who can make dynamic plays. But if they’re in a situation where they just drop back pass, JPP and Barrett are going to be a real issue for Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Edwards-Helaire, the X Factor

With the offensive tackle situation the way it is, I think the Chiefs are going to have to run it some and that takes me to the real X Factor in this game.

There’s one guy with the Chiefs that, when he plays they score 32 points a game and when he doesn’t play they score 20 points a game, and that’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the rookie running.

I loved him when he was coming out of LSU – I think everyone who watches football did. It’s hard not to, with a guy who is on the smaller side, but runs with physicality and toughness and can catch the ball out of the backfield. He’s a dynamic play-maker and for a running back or any player not named Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce to account for a 12-point difference in the Chiefs’ scoring is a big deal.

Edwards-Helaire played a little bit last week coming back from ankle and hip injuries, but if he’s fully healthy I think he’s going to be a real difference-maker.

The Chiefs are going to have to find ways to create offense while not just dropping back and exposing the quarterback with the issues they have at tackle, especially against this front they’re facing.

It’ll be hard to run it on Tampa Bay, but they’ll at least try and they’ll be able to utilize Edwards-Helaire in the screen game and as an extension of the run game, and I think he will be a real key for the Chiefs.

This story was originally published February 3, 2021 at 11:10 AM.