The Bills’ Josh Allen has grown tremendously in NFL, but that next step is a big one

When you look at Josh Allen and how much he has improved in his NFL career, it’s just wild. His completion percentage went sky-high. His touchdown percentage has more than doubled. His interception percentage has been cut by more than half.

Everything that you want to see from your quarterback improved, and it improved more than any quarterback I can remember going from college to the NFL these past few years.

But after last weekend, there’s a next-step for Allen and the Buffalo Bills, as there is with the Packers.

Green Bay has been in the NFC championship game the past two seasons, lost to the 49ers, lost to the Bucs, and so what gets it over the top? For the Packers it’s situational football. It’s Matt LeFleur and Aaron Rodgers being on the same page, and making the right decisions.

It’s just as clear for the Bills and Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator, deserves some credit for that.

Buffalo was 0-2 against the Chiefs this season and 15-2 against everyone else, so what did the Chiefs do to limit Allen and the Bills’ offense?

What they did was challenge Allen to really be accurate and precise and that’s the hardest thing to do when you have such a strong arm and so much ability with your legs and to make plays.

Buffalo had a lot of third-and-3s or third-and-4s that it missed in the AFC championship game. You feel pretty good about those situations if you’re an offensive guy so to have the game change on those downs really makes you look at what the Chiefs were doing, and all they were doing was playing tight man-to-man coverage.

Precision, accuracy challenged

They mixed up their looks a lot, but when they were in short-yardage situations or run situations, they put a lot of pressure on Allen and they kind of eliminated the run-pass option. They played really tight in the back end and made a lot of good plays on the ball.

They weren’t intimidated by Stefon Diggs or Cole Beasley or Allen’s ability to throw it with accuracy. Spagnuolo was banking that he could put pressure on Allen and get him to hold the ball or get him to throw it when they wanted him to throw it. When he did that, Allen was just a little bit off and if you’re just a little bit off in games like that, especially against good opponents, you’re not going to advance.

There was one play early in the game when Diggs was in man-to-man coverage to the right side. He ran about a 5-yard route and he had about 2 yards of separation at the top. The ball should be halfway to the receiver when the receiver turns around on this particular route. But when Diggs turned around, the ball was still in Allen’s hand.

Now, Allen has an incredibly strong arm, so he can afford to be a little late. Anticipation is something he doesn’t necessarily have to push. But he was late and his throw was a little high and he missed it. It was a simple play. It was third-and-short, tight man-to-man coverage, and the Chiefs had success with it so Spagnuolo kept dialing up that same coverage on third-and-shorts and they just weren’t able to convert.

Allen ran the ball a couple of times in those situations and he made some productive yardage running the football. But he also lost about 30 yards in sacks against the same coverages trying to extend a play and Buffalo was just 5 of 14 converting on third downs.

So the Chiefs, they win. They win the day. If you’re Buffalo coach Sean McDermott or offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and you look at how the Bills can improve, I think they just have to really push precision, really push anticipation.

That’s where the Bills are right now. They’re a really good football team, and all they’re really missing offensively is that precision.

NFL will test Josh Allen next season with Chiefs’ plan

So many of the big plays they’ve made have come with Allen working outside the Xs and Os. They’ve had so much success with that, I think they use that as a default. But when you’re getting pressure and tight man-to-man coverage down the field, you can’t really do that. The quarterback has to really be on it. He has to be really precise. He has to know where he’s going and he has to throw it with anticipation.

Allen has Superhero-type ability, but he doesn’t always have to throw on the cape. Sometimes it’s OK to be Bruce Wayne and find the completion, throw with anticipation, take the simple read, take the simple play.

If they can do that I think they’ll have more success in those situations, and they’ll always have that fastball that Allen has in their back pocket or that extended play ability in their back pocket.

They will be tested – Spagnuolo has done this now twice to Allen, and more teams are going to do the same thing. Allen will be challenged more next season, as the rest of the league figures it out.

But I think he’ll improve. We’ve seen him improve in the past two seasons and I think he’s going to improve in that area, also. I think that happens with time. He’s a young guy. He hasn’t played in that many games. He has everything in front him.

Allen is an incredibly talented young quarterback – there was talk of him possibly being an MVP candidate this season. There’s just a little piece left that he has to clean up and then he’s on his way.