49ers Super Bowl mailbag: Most key matchup? Best bet for MVP?
The 49ers on Sunday touched down in Miami and had a walkthrough Monday before gearing up for the insanity that is Super Bowl week.
There’s a unique schedule this week because the team has availability starting at Monday’s “Opening Night” media extravaganza (or fiasco) each day through Thursday. So instead of our normal Tuesday mailbag we pushed it up. To your questions!
Zach Oliverson asks: What key one-on-one match ups will have the biggest impact on the game? Joe Staley- Frank Clark, George Kittle-Tyrann Mathieu, Nick Bosa/Dee Ford-Eric Fisher, Jaquiski Tartt-Travis Kelce... Sunday can’t come soon enough!
I think you nailed most of them.
How about Richard Sherman and Tyreek Hill?
The 49ers have been one of the best defenses in the NFL this season at limiting the big plays while Hill is probably the most lethal deep threat they have seen. Will pressure from the defensive line prevent Patrick Mahomes from having enough time to find his explosive playmakers deep? And will Sherman, Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt be in position to cover them?
How about San Francisco wideouts Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel versus Chiefs corners Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland?
I’d imagine Kansas City’s defensive game plan will focus on stopping the run and slowing Kittle, so the 49ers receivers will need to create space for the passing game after Jimmy Garoppolo had just 27 throws in the first two playoff games combined.
This is a fascinating Super Bowl because of all the individual matchups. But it’s not limited to on the field.
Andy Reid has the most playoff appearances (15) of any coach to never win a Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan is going through his first playoff jaunt as a head coach. Both are considered two of the best offensive minds in the game, yet they’ve had vastly different head coaching careers (and come from a similar coaching tree with West Coast offense principles as their staple).
Then there’s the organizational dynamics. The Chiefs haven’t won a Super Bowl in 50 years while San Francisco is looking for its sixth Lombardi Trophy, which would tie them with the Steelers and Patriots for the most ever.
Chris Ancheta asks: Since Niners will be in Nickel most of the game, who gets more snaps, Kwon Alexander or Dre Greenlaw?
The 49ers eased Alexander back into the mix during the playoffs his pectoral injury playing “Sam” linebacker in base downs (when three linebackers were on the field).
That was different than how he was used during the regular season as the primary “Will” on the weak side. Greenlaw took over that role and played well while Alexander was out, and the team decided to maintain the status quo against the Vikings and Packers, with Alexander playing just 25 and 20 snaps, respectively.
As I’m writing this Monday morning, I don’t know if the team will continue with that alignment or shift back to having Alexander play “Will.” I’d guess they would keep Greenlaw there to avoid making a significant personnel shift ahead of the biggest game of the year.
Though it’s worth noting Alexander player “Will” late in the victory over Green Bay after Greenlaw exited when he tweaked an ankle. He was cleared to return but was kept on the sideline.
I’ll try to find out more this week.
Timothy asks: If we win the coin flip, there is no way we are deferring to the second half right? If we do, wouldn’t that be an early sign how confident our defense thinks it will be in slowing down Mahomes?
The 49ers defer every time they win the toss, so I can’t imagine that would change Sunday.
Shanahan has a ton of confidence in the defense and believes in the advantage of getting the ball first after halftime. It’s worked to this point.
Also, Kansas City has come back from 24-0 and 10-0 first-half deficits in their two playoff games against Houston and Tennessee. Getting an early lead on them hasn’t mattered.
Evelyn asks: If you were to place a bet on the potential super bowl MVP who would you pick?
It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs winning and it not going to Mahomes, who’s the betting favorite.
If I were to bet on a 49ers player (which I obviously can’t), I’d go with someone who has betting value to his name. Nick Bosa is +2000 (20-1) and Deebo Samuel is +2500 (25-1).
Bosa could have a Von Miller-like game from the Super Bowl in 2016 when he had 2.5 sacks and forced two fumbles of Cam Newton. If San Francisco wins, it might take a star effort from one of their defensive linemen to make some game-changing plays. Bosa is the best candidate.
Samuel is interesting because of all the different ways he could be used. It wouldn’t be surprising if he had rushing and receiving touchdowns with big yardage totals. He might be the team’s most dynamic player on offense not named George Kittle.
Blake Souza asks: If the 49ers don’t re-sign Arik Armstead or Deforest Buckner do you think they would actually try and target Joey Bosa in 2021. (Not saying this is the right move) what would it take to bring in Joey and is this more of a dream then reality?
Sure. If the team let Armstead and Buckner walk over the next two years, then Joey Bosa would be a possible free-agent target to play with his brother on the 49ers.
To answer the second part of your question, yes, this is more of a dream than reality. The 49ers love Buckner and have indicated they want him to be with the team for a long time. He’s mentioned to me he would like to have the same career path as Joe Staley and stay with one organization throughout his entire career.
Armstead’s future is a little bit tougher to figure out beyond the Super Bowl. The 49ers have just under $16 million in projected cap space, according to Overthecap.com, and Armstead could be looking for a contract in that range per season.
That would be tough because the 49ers have other free agents, such as safety Jimmie Ward and receiver Emmanuel Sanders, on top of Kittle and Buckner needing new contracts at some point before 2021.
The 49ers could do the opposite of what they’ve done with recent contracts and backload them rather than paying a bunch of money up front. That way they could make the salaries work for 2020 under the salary cap and bring the band back together while committing money for 2021 and beyond.
But the giant variable that has unknown effects on upcoming free agents is a new collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA is up following the 2020 season. Some players may want to sign contracts before a potential work stoppage while others may want to wait for a new deal.
That’s because the owners may be pushing a 17-game schedule, which would then incentive players to want more money. So far, the 17-game schedule sounds like a nonstarter for players, but they might change their tune if the money is right.
Scott Boivie asks: With Kelce being a zone killer, is Warner the best man to cover him?
If Kelce is in Warner’s zone, then of course. It all depends on where Kelce lines up, down and distance and San Francisco’s personnel packages.
The 49ers held tight ends to 552 receiving yards this season, the fewest of any defense in the NFL.
Warner was a big part of that. But I’d argue the safeties were equally as important because they more often play the seams where tight ends spend a lot of their time.
Jimmie Ward allowed just 15 catches on 25 targets all season. Jaquiski Tartt, allowed 16 on 29. Linebacker Kwon Alexander yielded a passer rating of 76.0 when targeted.
Suffice to say, containing Kelce will be a group effort and San Francisco has been mostly good at it all season.
Ruthless asks: Who is your favorite current 49ers player? For your unflinching journalistic integrity, Chris, this can question be read to mean favorite personality/interview/etc.
This is something my colleagues and I discuss pretty often. There are a lot of players in the locker room who are enjoyable to talk to and get to know. That wasn’t always the case previously, even when the team was contending for Super Bowls under Jim Harbaugh.
Every year the local media gives out the Garry Niver Award to the 49ers player that’s most accessible and helpful to reporters. Sherman won it this year in a landslide because he’s available to talk almost whenever asked, particularly by local beat writers. Some players begrudgingly speak to local scribes and then open up more to national writers (which isn’t the way toward winning the Niver).
In no particular order, the following players are accessible, informative and generally good to talk to: Sherman, George Kittle, Buckner, Kyle Juszczyk, Joe Staley, Kendrick Bourne, Mike McGlinchey, Dre Greenlaw, D.J. Jones, Mike Person, Jimmie Ward, Fred Warner and Dee Ford. Nick Bosa can be a sneaky good quote and Jimmy Garoppolo is interesting, but he’s a pretty private guy.
I don’t have any personal favorites (if I did, admitting to it here wouldn’t be smart). But the fact there are so many interesting personalities speaks to the value Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have placed on character and culture, which is one of the many reasons the 49ers find themselves in the Super Bowl.
This story was originally published January 28, 2020 at 4:00 AM with the headline "49ers Super Bowl mailbag: Most key matchup? Best bet for MVP?."