Commentary: When the world stops counting on the US

In discussions with senior Chinese officials over the years, the tone has always been the same: measured, courteous, almost studiously neutral. They never criticized the United States directly. Instead, they would ask a different question: Why should the global system continue to revolve around a single country?

That's why President Donald Trump's coming meeting with President Xi Jinping carries more weight than the usual diplomatic choreography. The real question in Beijing isn't whether America is failing. It's whether the United States is still the country others organize around - or one they increasingly work around.

For Americans, that distinction matters. As China and others hedge against U.S. leadership, the perception of American drift can translate into higher costs, weaker alliances and a more uncertain global economy. The issue isn't whether the United States is in decline. It's whether the world starts behaving as if it is.

That view isn't confined to Beijing. American influence has never rested on power alone - it depends on the belief that the United States is reliable and competent. That belief is eroding. As Harvard professor Stephen Walt recently observed, other governments will be less inclined to follow American leadership, at least for the foreseeable future.

From China's vantage point, this crumbling isn't framed as victory. It's portrayed as a transition. Officials I've spoken with emphasize cooperation and competition, not confrontation. They point to China's transformation - from a poor, largely agrarian society into the world's second-largest economy - as proof that prosperity no longer has a single author.

They are seeking something beyond influence: recognition. Indeed, China's rise is real - evidence of a shifting balance. Global manufacturing has tilted in its direction.

That's only half the story.

What Beijing may interpret as American decline is, in part, something else: political turbulence playing out in public view. The United States remains the world's most innovative economy, its military is unmatched, and its ability to attract capital and talent is formidable. It has absorbed shocks before - Vietnam, Watergate, the financial crisis - and regained its footing.

Which raises the central question surrounding Trump's return to power: Is he an aberration, or an unyielding change in America's direction?

From Beijing's perspective, he is evidence of a system under strain - an unpredictable actor produced by deep political divisions. From an American view, he is a product of those divisions and an accelerant of them. The United States has come through past crises, but only after it regains a sense of steadiness at home and abroad. That steadiness isn't there yet.

Still, perception has consequences.

When allies begin to doubt U.S. reliability, they hedge. That doesn't always mean breaking ranks. In some cases, it means allies - especially in Europe - spending more on their military. However, it can also mean going it alone. When Washington launched military strikes against Iran and pressed its claim to Greenland, European allies did not follow. They objected. That breach - allies openly opposing American unilateral action - is not a footnote. It is a signal of how strained the relationship has become.

As former Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann told Bloomberg: "If you can't depend on a certain country to be your ally, then why are you holding their currency in reserve?"

That's where this becomes a kitchen-table issue.

A world that has less trust in the United States is one in which Americans may pay more to finance debt, stabilize supply chains, and sustain a security system that no longer operates as seamlessly with allies. The result shows up in tangible ways: higher borrowing costs at home and volatile prices for imported goods.

None of this connotes America is a "faded power." However, it shapes how others treat this country. China's leaders may be deferential toward the United States, yet their actions suggest they are preparing for a world in which American leadership is questionable.

Whether that future arrives depends on whether this country rebuilds trust with allies and demonstrates that its go-it-alone instincts don't define a permanent change in direction.

After all, it's not what Beijing believes. It's whether the country that built the postwar order can still be counted on to uphold it.

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ABOUT THE WRITER

Ken Silverstein has covered energy and international affairs for years. He wrote this for InsideSources.com.

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This story was originally published May 11, 2026 at 12:17 PM.