Borenstein: California ballots are arriving. What's a Democratic voter to do?

With ballots headed for California mailboxes this week, Democratic voters face a choice this primary election between ideological purity and stopping President Donald Trump from taking control of the state.

At parties, dinner tables and watercoolers, voters are asking each other for advice as they ponder a perplexing field of gubernatorial candidates they know mostly only through video advertising and campaign mailers.

They might be told that former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra is too moderate, billionaire hedge fund manager Tom Steyer is just another rich guy, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter is confrontational, or San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan's campaign is funded by tech moguls.

What they probably won't be told is the most important strategic advice to ensure California's top leader is blue: Just wait.

Under California's open primary rules, the two candidates who finish at the top in June, regardless of party, will move on to the November general election.

And there remains a very real possibility that, with six Democrats and two Republicans contenders remaining, the Dems could split their vote enough to ensure the GOP captures the top two slots.

Both Republicans have legitimate MAGA credentials. Steve Hilton comes with Trump's endorsement and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is leading the election-denial crusade.

Democrats have been living for months now with the possibility of being shut out of the general election in the nation's leading blue state. Such an outcome would be psychologically devastating to the party nationally, undermine the state's fight against the Trump administration and threaten California's progressive environmental and social policies.

But the danger of a split gubernatorial vote didn't stop Mahan from entering the race late, further fracturing the Democratic field, or stop Steyer from using his vast campaign wealth to attack Becerra just as the latter is rising to the top of the tight crowd. This Democratic circular firing squad could continue right up to Election Day on June 2.

The pundits have professed that the threat of Republicans capturing the two top spots eased when allegations of sexual misconduct against Eric Swalwell chased him out of the race and Congress, and when Trump endorsed Hilton, which was prematurely considered a death knell for Bianco. And Becerra's surprising rise following Swalwell's exit has left some thinking he is the certain top Dem.

With four weeks to go, the polling tells us that this race is still very tight. And the threat of Democrats being excluded from the November ballot remains. Just look at the recent Democratic Party survey, released Monday: Hilton 18%, Becerra 18%, Bianco 14%, Steyer 12%, Porter 8%, Mahan 7%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2%, Tony Thurmond 1%.

The totals include those likely voters definitely backing one of the candidates and those "leaning" in that direction. For example, Becerra's 18% is comprised of 15% clear support and 3% leaners.

Eliminate the leaners, who could be easily swayed by a few attack ads, and the field is even more tenuous for Democrats: Hilton 17%, Becerra 15%, Bianco 14%, Steyer 10%, Porter 6%, Mahan 6%.

Then keep in mind that the numbers have a margin of error of plus or minus nearly 3 percentage points. In other words, the race at the top is razor thin, essentially a statistical tie. And every Steyer attack ad on Becerra increases Bianco's chances.

To be sure, California Democrats are fortunate that Swalwell's implosion came before ballots went out, just as national Democrats were lucky that President Joe Biden's debate fiasco in 2024 came before the party's nominating convention.

But Democrats know how the 2024 presidential election turned out after Vice President Kamala Harris scrambled to ramp up her replacement campaign. Similarly, California Democrats might be wondering if the Swalwell exit came too late to provide time for another clear frontrunner to emerge.

Which brings us to the dilemma facing the state's Democratic voters today. A lot can happen in the next few weeks. The pack could reshuffle again.

For those Democrats concerned about having a candidate on the ballot in November, the best strategy is to wait and see who is sitting atop the field in the week before the election. And then cast a ballot.

Daniel Borenstein is editor-at-large for the opinion section.

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This story was originally published May 5, 2026 at 11:27 AM.