Fresno County GOP activist says CA Republican comeback starts with conservative Latinos

The California Republican Party appears to be at its lowest point ever. The GOP has not won a statewide race in 15 years, and we were crushed in our efforts to recall Gov. Newsom.

Many have written our political obituary, but that would be foolish. The pages of political history are littered with realignments and parties rising from the ashes.

The once “Solid South” for Democrats is now the reddest area in the country. Black voters once firmly behind Republicans are now committed to the Democrat party. More recently, blue-collar whites were a major part of the Democrat coalition; now they support the Republican party. Could California Republicans see a shifting of coalitions return us to relevance? Data show it is already underway.

A comeback for the GOP in California will come through minority voters, specifically Hispanics. This is not a new thought, and past efforts to recruit Hispanic voters into the state Republican party had limited success. But recent data show that meaningful numbers of Hispanic voters are ready for change.

Before focusing on California, let us take a quick trip to Texas. Texas Monthly has published a lengthy article in its current issue on the jaw-dropping reversal of fortunes for Democrats in south Texas. Last year, Republican Javier Villalobos was elected mayor of the border town McAllen, in a county where 85% of the voters are Hispanic. Stunned political observers were reminded by Villalobos that “…a lot of people know or should know, that Hispanics are very conservative.” In Starr County, the bottom is falling out for Democrats — Hillary Clinton won by 60 points, but Joe Biden barely survived with a 5-point win. In Zapata County, Trump was the first Republican to win in a century. How was that possible for a supposed “racist” president who was so strong on border security?

Reality shows that Hispanic voters do not favor open borders any more than other voter groups. According to a 2019 Pew Research Poll, 76% of Hispanic voters say improving security of our borders is somewhat or very important. According to Adrienne Peña-Garza, Republican Party chair of Hidalgo County, Texas, “National Democrats have done a fairly good job making it seem like if you support border security, you must be a self-hater.” Hispanics who switch to the Republican Party often find themselves targets of abuse accusing them of being “coconuts” — brown on the outside, white on the inside. Peña-Garza continues, “But I think the bullying has backfired. People are more empowered and courageous.”

Something significant is going on in Texas, but what about the Golden State? Evidence shows, while not yet as advanced, the Hispanic shift is underway here as well. California Democrats were petrified when polls just a couple of months before the Sept. 14 recall election showed Hispanics favoring removal before there was a clear favorite as Newsom’s replacement. However, changing voting patterns that are often generational is slow going, and the bulk of Hispanic voters ended up voting to keep Newsom over putting a Republican in the governorship. Even though they could acknowledge the abject failure of Newsom’s tenure, not enough were ready to accept someone with an R next to his name instead.

A closer look shows Newsom still lost four points of overall Hispanic support from his 2018 numbers, and a more eyebrow-raising 10 points among Hispanic men.

Part of the explanation for this shift may be the fact that Democrats continually insult the values of this largely pro-family, Catholic group. From the young, white, progressive push for the ungendered term “Latinx” (only 3% of Hispanics use it), to canceling the term “mother” in favor of “birthing person,” to the near worship of abortion through all nine months, to booing God at their 2016 convention, Hispanics are beginning to realize that the political party to which they have long given their support now holds traditional values in contempt.

It is also true that Democrats are not helping to elevate Hispanics in this state. In fact, it is in the Democrats best interest to keep them reliant on government. Polls show that anyone with a full-time job votes more Republican, and those on government aid favor Democrats. So, what would Democrats rather see: a strong job market or universal basic income? As more Hispanics achieve success and claim their piece of the American dream, they are re-evaluating their political allegiance.

According to Ben Kaplan, CEO of polling group Top Data, the loss of national support for Democrats from Hispanics has become a “consistent trend.” As for California Hispanics, he states, “I do think there is a lot of potential here for this to be a kind of new battleground in the state.”

But, as the recall showed, that day is not today. There will be more losses before we see wins, but I encourage patience, as California Hispanics’ values make them consider a new political home and the Democrats laugh it all off.

Those on the Titanic never thought she could sink, even after she started taking on water.