Warszawski: Fresno State sitting out basketball’s three-point revolution

A basketball revolution is underway, one launched from beyond the arc.

The three-point shot has become more prevalent than ever, and not just for Stephen Curry and the Warriors. The numbers indicate it’s also happening across college basketball.

College teams are both shooting and making three-pointers at their highest rates since the line was moved back to 20 feet, 9 inches in 2008-09, according to statistician Ken Pomeroy.

One place where the revolution hasn’t spread is Fresno State. The Bulldogs don’t shoot many threes compared with other teams, and when they do the results often aren’t pretty.

That was never more apparent than Saturday night, when Fresno State went just 1 of 18 from beyond the arc in an enthusiasm-sapping 77-62 defeat to New Mexico at Save Mart Center.

Those numbers are a bit inflated because the Bulldogs hoisted five threes in the final 4:18, their last-ditch effort to make up a double-digit deficit.

Marvelle Harris made his second attempt, then missed six in a row to finish 1 of 8. Senior backcourt mate Cezar Guerrero went 0 for 5. Everyone else went 0 for 5 combined.

“There are some open shots you’ve got to make,” coach Rodney Terry said afterward. “We got great looks and didn’t finish.”

While there’s a temptation to dismiss 1 of 18 as an off night, a closer look reveals a downward trend.

And when you put Fresno State’s three-point rates under a national microscope, it becomes clear how much the revolution is happening without them.

Of the 346 Division I basketball teams listed in the official NCAA statistics, only 16 average fewer than five three-pointers per game.

Fresno State is among them, at 4.9. The scary part is the Bulldogs haven’t surpassed five made threes in eight consecutive games against Division I teams and only three times all season. Each of those games took place in November.

Since then the Bulldogs have gotten progressively worse from distance. They’ve started 3 of 28 from three-point range in Mountain West play and are 6 of 40 over their past three games against D-I teams.

That slump drops Fresno State’s season percentage to 30.5, which ranks last in the MW and 300th in the country.

Since the Bulldogs don’t shoot threes very well, it’s no surprise they rely on them less than most.

According to KenPom.com, Division I teams have taken 35.2 percent of their total field goals from behind the arc. (Up from 34.2 percent a year ago.)

At 25.8 percent, Fresno State is well off that mark.

The rise in three-pointers across basketball is tied to the increased use of analytics. Instead of points per game and field goal percentage, teams are being evaluated on points per possession and effective shooting rates.

Because threes are worth 1 1/2 times a normal field goal, shooting 33.3 percent outside the arc is the equivalent of shooting 50 percent inside.

For that reason more than ever, coaches across the country are drawing up plays designed to give their best three-point shooters open looks.

Three-pointers are the game’s biggest momentum changers. A five-point deficit suddenly becomes two, while a seven-point lead quickly stretches to 10.

So when a team doesn’t have that ability, it becomes even tougher to make up ground or expand leads.

Just the threat can be enough. Three-point shooters are equally valuable for their ability to create space on the floor and give other players more operating room inside.

Teams that can’t shoot from outside get defended differently. New Mexico had no reason to budge from its zone defense Saturday night, and future opponents won’t either until Fresno State starts hitting threes.

Guerrero and forward Paul Watson are the only Bulldogs shooting above that target 33.3 percent clip. But Guerrero has been frigid over the past five games, missing 11 of his last 12.

“It’s something that Coach Terry expects me to do, and when called upon I’ve got to do it,” Guerrero said. “I’ve got to put in more time in the gym, more time than I’m already putting.”

There’s hope Washington transfer Jahmel Taylor, who became eligible two games ago and is 3 of 9 on threes so far, could make a difference. Even better would be a return to form by Harris, whose 27.4 three-point percentage is well off last year’s 32.1, not to mention his 35.9 rate from 2013-14.

That said, Fresno State isn’t suddenly going to morph into a three-point juggernaut. These Bulldogs rely on defense, rebounding and creating turnovers, and their most consistent scoring comes on fast breaks and put backs.

Terry knows this better than anyone. It’s why he consistently deflects questions about his team’s shooting.

“We got good looks, we didn’t make them and then we didn’t get back to guard,” he said following Saturday’s loss. “We let our offense affect our defense, and you can’t do that.”

Terry is right, of course. Good teams don’t do that. But in today’s game, teams that don’t hit threes with some proficiency are at a larger disadvantage than ever.

At Fresno State, the three-point revolution is but a rumor.

This story was originally published January 4, 2016 at 3:53 PM with the headline "Warszawski: Fresno State sitting out basketball’s three-point revolution."