Warszawski: Fresno State isn’t caught behind the curve, yet

Right about now, Fresno State fans would appreciate Mr. Freitas, my 12th-grade science teacher.

For one simple reason: Mr. Freitas graded on a curve.

No one achieved perfect scores on his exams. Some questions were so tough they would’ve stumped second-year med students. The curve became our salvation. Because no matter what, he was going to give out a certain number of A’s, B’s, C’s and so on.

You didn’t need to ace the test to get a good grade. Just as long as you weren’t sitting in a classroom full of neurosurgeons.

The reason I bring up Mr. Freitas (besides the fact that he was the only teacher I’ve ever seen or heard of who drove a Ferrari) is that sports work much the same way.

Teams are ultimately judged against each other, not by some absolute scale. Which is something that tends to get lost when the Bulldogs are 1-3 in football and just flunked their first midterm.

Two-thirds of the season is still ahead, with seven of the eight remaining games against Fresno State’s peer group in the Mountain West Conference.

Which, to extend my analogy, fits the description of college football’s remedial level.

Just about everyone expected 2015 to be a down year for the conference, and the season’s first month only confirmed those suspicions.

MW teams are a combined 16-24 in nonconference play, but that’s waxed and buffed by an 11-1 record against Football Championship Subdivision-level opponents. Against Football Bowl Subdivision foes, the conference is 5-23 – including a 3-18 mark against Power Five teams and 0-7 vs. the Top 25.

The statistical picture isn’t any prettier. Three MW teams (Hawaii, San Diego State and Utah State) rank 124th, 125th and 126th in the FBS (out of 128 teams) in total offense with Nevada (98th) and Fresno State (113th) within earshot.

In run defense, six MW teams (Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Wyoming, Hawaii and San Jose State) rank 93rd or lower. In pass efficiency defense, six teams (Utah State, San Diego State, Nevada, New Mexico, Fresno State and Wyoming) rank 89th or lower.

Stats not your thing? CBS Sports, the MW’s primary television partner, ranks all 128 FBS teams on a weekly basis.

Besides those annoying straight-A students Boise State (29) and Air Force (58), all 10 remaining MW teams are currently 75th or lower, including Wyoming dead last at 128.

For teams in the West Division, the curve is plus-sized generous. CBS Sports has them ranked like this: Nevada, 84; Hawaii, 96; San Diego State, 99; San Jose State, 100; UNLV, 112; and Fresno State, 116.

I bring this up not to rub salt into already tender wounds, but to point out the top of the trash heap remains very much within reach.

“Things in our division are going to be real even,” Fresno State coach Tim DeRuyter said before Thursday’s practice. “There’s a lot of parity.”

That’s the nicer way of putting it.

(Good thing the MW added the Arizona Bowl to its postseason lineup, bringing the number of bowls to a preposterous 41. Don’t scoff. I hear Tucson is quite lovely in late December.)

Consider the plight of San Diego State, the Bulldogs’ opponent Saturday night in that aging concrete hulk known as Qualcomm Stadium.

Like 1-3 Fresno State, the 1-3 Aztecs have also hit the skids after opening with an easy win over an FCS team, though San Diego State has the ignominy of losing at home to South Alabama.

There’s also been a slapstick dimension to the Aztecs’ losses. In all three they’ve committed costly turnovers just before halftime.

Last week San Diego State was leading Penn State 14-13 in Happy Valley until a muffed punt and fumble set up two Nittany Lions touchdowns in the final 1 minute, 3 seconds of the second quarter.

The comedy of errors continued in the second half when Penn State scored the decisive touchdown on a 71-yard fumble-and-rumble by a 321-pound defensive lineman.

“Every week it’s somebody different, and they’re good guys,” San Diego State coach Rocky Long lamented. “They’re not trying to do it.”

While the Aztecs try to get off on the right foot in conference play, Fresno State is already limping after what happened last week in San Jose. The margin for error is already thin.

An 0-2 start, with both losses coming within the division, likely would mean the Bulldogs won’t get to play for the MW title. It also means they’d have to finish 5-2 just to be bowl eligible. (That’s with three remaining road games including a late November nonconference appointment at BYU.)

Those are the stark realities. But so is this: For a team that began the season with a tailback, a decent O-line and question marks everywhere else, I’m not sure much more could’ve been reasonably expected.

Fresno State’s performances in its past three games, especially the last one, need not be a season-long indictment. The Bulldogs can still measure up to their lackluster competition provided they’re practicing hard and striving to improve. We’ll get a better indication of that last bit Saturday night.

And if that’s not optimism enough for you, here’s this: Friday was the first day of basketball practice.

This story was originally published October 2, 2015 at 6:27 PM with the headline "Warszawski: Fresno State isn’t caught behind the curve, yet."