Warszawski: Lowered expectations don’t mean Bulldogs are worse off

Expectations are a funny beast.

One year, a football team can be picked to win its division, end up accomplishing that goal and still head into the offseason with a bitter taste.

“Our guys are (angry) about last season,” said Fresno State coach Tim DeRuyter, using stronger words than are acceptable in a family newspaper.

The next year, expectations can be lower than an earthworm. But if you surpass them, everyone ends up feeling good.

The Mountain West Conference preseason poll came out Tuesday, and Fresno State was not picked to finish last in the West Division. Not even close. The Bulldogs were actually picked second — albeit a distant second to San Diego State.

So why does it seem like expectations are significantly lower? Some fans I talk to tell me they’d be surprised if this team wins more than three games.

Three games? No Bulldogs team has won that few since 1978.

Much of that has to do with 2014: The blowout at home against Wyoming. The inexplicable loss to UNLV. The no-show against Rice in the Hawaii Bowl. These games stick in the craw much deeper than what happened during nonconference play or against Boise State (twice.)

Then there are the numerous question marks surrounding this year’s team.

The Bulldogs don’t have an established quarterback, which puts them in the same position as everyone else in the conference beside Utah State. Four players are vying for the job, and DeRuyter reiterated Tuesday that each will begin training camp next week on equal footing.

Marteze Waller is a stud tailback, but there is little depth at the position. The wide receivers are talented but untested (thinking KeeSean Johnson and Keyan Williams) and enigmatic (thinking Aaron Peck).

On defense, where Fresno State has been pretty terrible the past two seasons, the line is a big question mark. And until we see actual improvement at cornerback, it’s impossible to say things will be any better.

Senior cornerback Charles Washington understands the doubts.

“People look at our roster and say, ‘Who’s the quarterback? Who’s the receiver? Who’s going to lead the secondary? Who’s going to lead the linebackers? You don’t have Derron (Smith). You don’t have Karl (Mickelsen). You don’t have Tyeler (Davison). Who’s going to step in and fill these holes?’ ” Washington said.

“That’s what I think it is, but they don’t know what we have to offer yet. It’s up to us to show them.”

Despite those questions, the Bulldogs were still picked to finish ahead of Nevada, San Jose State, Hawaii and UNLV — and by healthy margins.

Some of that has to do with how weak the West Division is, at least on paper, compared to the Mountain.

According to Athlon Sports’ national ratings, Fresno State is the 91st best team in FBS. If the Bulldogs were in the Mountain Division, they’d be behind Boise State (25), Utah State (51), Colorado State (71) and Air Force (83) and in front of Wyoming (95) and New Mexico (96).

So it definitely helps the Bulldogs to be in the same division as San Jose State (110), Hawaii (114) and UNLV (122). That’s out of 128 FBS teams.

“I think everybody’s, ‘Yeah, you’re second in the West, but so what?’ ” senior right tackle Justin Northern said. “I think people are really counting us out, and I love it. Play down to us. That’s awesome.”

What a turnaround from 12 months ago, when Fresno State was riding high following back-to-back conference titles. Everyone knew there would be a big drop-off at quarterback without Derek Carr, but no one could’ve predicted how big it would be.

Still, there were enough returning senior leaders with championship résumés such as Josh Harper, Smith and Davison to think the Bulldogs would keep steaming along.

Instead, that group ran out of steam.

The skepticism is natural. As unevenly as Fresno State played last season, it still had two NFL draft picks in Davison and Smith and a priority free agent in Harper. How can a team that loses its three best and most experienced players be expected to improve?

The short answer: It can. Perhaps not in September, when the new starters grow into expanded roles, but definitely by October and November. This is a young roster that should keep getting better and better as the weather cools.

“This team has tons of skill,” Northern said. “I’m just hoping they don’t get scared when the lights turn on. When we played USC last year, I felt everybody tried to do more than they had to do. If everyone just does their job, we’ll be fine. But that’s what happens when you’re young.”

I can’t tell you Fresno State will reach the MW championship for a third straight year. There are too many unanswered questions at key positions. But I’m not expecting a plunge to the bottom, either.

Bulldogs fans who aren’t expecting much from this season could even be pleasantly surprised. Better than the other way around.

This story was originally published July 28, 2015 at 6:23 PM with the headline "Warszawski: Lowered expectations don’t mean Bulldogs are worse off."