Next COVID-19 wave is headed to Fresno. But not all the news about omicron is bad
A new COVID-19 wave is headed our way, and a lot of people in Fresno and the San Joaquin Valley are going to get sick. That much seems unavoidable.
But let’s not engage in a collective freak-out, either. Initial indicators suggest omicron, while more contagious than previous coronavirus strains, is also less severe. Emerging research shows omicron may cause milder symptoms than previous versions of the disease, result in less long-term lung damage and less likely to send patients to hospitals.
In other words, many people are going to catch this variant — alas, even the vaccinated and boosted — but proportionally fewer of them will become severely ill or have the virus contribute to their deaths.
At least that’s the informed hope, based on the latest science. To read about that, however, you’ll have to wade past the blaring headlines about cases and infection rates shooting up statewide. (No lie; they are.) Or the ones about home test kits being nearly impossible to find at Fresno-area stores and the multiday turnarounds for more reliable PCR test results. (What a colossal failure.)
During the past 22 months, the COVID-19 pandemic has continuously mutated and evolved. By contrast, the way mainstream media covers the story — including The Bee — has largely remained stuck. We report the same data (i.e. case totals, ICU totals and deaths) that we did in the summer of 2020 and repeat the same warnings from doctors and public health officials.
These things are done as a public service, to be certain. Our role is to keep the community informed. In the end, however, readers and viewers always decide for themselves whether to get vaccinated, wear a mask at the supermarket or attend that New Year’s party.
One thing we’ve learned since this began is that pandemic trends here mirror those in California’s coastal cities a few weeks later. And right now, new cases and transmission rates in the Bay Area and Los Angeles have soared to summer 2020 levels with a peak expected in late January.
Which means the omicron wave should fully engulf Fresno and the San Joaquin Valley by month’s end with no relief till mid-or-late February. Brace yourself because it’s coming. But again, studies conducted both here and abroad offer hope that the latest surge may not be as catastrophic as feared.
That omicron is seemingly capable of infecting people who are fully vaccinated and boosted speaks to the nature and complexity of viruses and variants. By no coincidence, it’s another area where the mainstream media largely dropped the ball.
By and large, vaccines were cast as the panacea. Getting the shot(s) will not only protect you from catching COVID, news reports either stated or strongly implied, but also prevent you from transmitting it to someone else.
COVID vaccines not as advertised
We know now that neither of these statements are true. Instead, evidence shows the effectiveness of vaccines are better gauged by how well they protect people from being hospitalized or dying. Which is extremely important, but not close to the same thing.
Here in the San Joaquin Valley, where vaccination rates and ICU capacities lag behind other regions of California, omicron will smack us especially hard. Our overworked doctors and nurses will probably need outside assistance and some critically ill patients transferred elsewhere.
Still, it’s nothing we haven’t faced and withstood before. And evidence suggests the overwhelming majority that get sick (provided they’re vaccinated and contract the omicron variant and not delta, which continues to linger) will experience a sore throat, fatigue, nausea and for a few days before making a full recovery.
Will those who contract omicron be immune to delta or other variants? Early findings are inconclusive. What’s certain is that once this wave subsides a significant percentage of our population will have some form of protection — either through vaccinations/boosters or natural immunity. Exactly what’s needed to contain this virus.
At some point — no one can say definitively when — the pandemic will transition to the endemic stage when society treats it like the flu. Provided the initial studies of its relative mildness are correct, omicron may help us get there sooner rather than later.
