How long will Fresno be social distancing? Buckle up, because it could be a while
Most of us are in our third week of staying home, and sheltering in place is starting to feel like hibernation.
In my case, the garage has been swept and reorganized. There are no weeds left to pull, bushes to trim or fruit trees to prune. A guy can watch only so much Netflix and Discovery Channel — and even that beats re-runs of old NBA Finals and World Series games. (You already know who wins, right?)
Can’t imagine how people with school-aged kids are managing. Moms and dads, brothers and sisters, they all must be getting sick of staring at each other.
At this point, it’s only natural to wonder how long it’ll be before we can meet friends for dinner at a restaurant again. How long before we can drive to Yosemite, drink beer at a Fresno Grizzlies game, go to the gym or a yoga class. Do all the things we used to do before COVID-19 upended our worlds.
Unfortunately, it’s going to be a while. I couldn’t find a public health official or epidemiologist who believes things can return to normal by May 1 – President Trump’s current timeline to restart the economy. Not without costing more than a million American lives.
What about June, or sometime this summer? According to Zeke Emanuel, a health-policy expert and vice provost of the University of Pennsylvania, that would only be possible through extraordinary measures. It would require Trump to issue a nationwide stay-at-home order for eight to 10 weeks, during which time the federal government expedited the distribution of testing, protective gear and other equipment.
Which, let’s be honest, doesn’t seem likely. The New York Times editorial board described such a scenario as, “a Marshall Plan, an Apollo mission and a New Deal all rolled into one.”
Other scientific projections (perhaps we should call them educated guesses) suggest some social distancing will be necessary through the end of the year. Still others envision multiple rounds of social distancing, between which schools and restaurants can reopen, for as long as it takes (2022?) until there’s a coronavirus vaccine.
In other words, these last couple weeks are just the beginning of what things will be like for the unknowable future. The sooner we accept that, the better.
Social distancing paying off
Now that I’ve sufficiently bummed you out, time to add a teaspoon of honey to that bitter cup of reality tea.
On March 19, California became the first state to order a pseudo lockdown (Fresno did so March 18, two days after six Bay Area counties), and that aggressive action appears to be paying off.
Public health officials credit early social distancing as the reason why California, compared to other hot spots such as New York, New Jersey and Michigan, has seen a more gradual spread of confirmed COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.
So far, California’s death toll from coronavirus is less than 10% of New York, a state with half the population. And a widely cited prediction model suggests the state will have fewer deaths on its highest days than New York, Texas and Florida.
That model, developed by the University of Washington, predicts California’s death rate will peak at the end of April at a rate of 831 per week — assuming we maintain social distancing and other measures. But if we slack off, other modeling suggests the peak could be as high as 5,000 deaths per week.
No Fresno data, yet
“We have the time to prepare. That was the whole point of moving early on physical distancing,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said. “The only regret we will have is if we cut the parachute before we land.”
What about locally? Is there any data that suggests our own stay-at-home sacrifices are working?
Not yet, according to Fresno County Interim Health Officer Rais Vohra.
“Things like this take weeks and months to actually show a benefit,” Vohra said. “We’re all very early in the social distancing measures that are being implemented, and it’s going to take time for us to really figure out whether this curve is getting flatter.”
Take all the time you need, Dr. Vohra.
We’re not going anywhere.
This story was originally published April 2, 2020 at 3:30 PM.
