Which June 2026 primary races will draw the most buzz? Time to look | Opinion

Now that California voters have closed the book on the most important election of 2025, it is time we look 29 weeks ahead at what races will get the most attention in the June 2026 primary.

The spotlight – now that voters have approved new congressional maps until the California Citizens Redistricting Commission takes back that task following the 2030 Census – will once again be in the redrawn 22nd Congressional District where Republican David Valadao has survived in a district where 69.3% of its residents identify as Latino and Democrats held a 12-percentage point advantage.

In June, Valadao must campaign in a piece of western Fresno County that could prove more problematic than previous campaigns. His new district, one of six that could flip from Republican to Democrat, goes from “leans Republican” to “tossup” by the Sabato Crystal Ball.

Former Assemblymember Rudy Salas, who lost the last two battles against Valadao, has not indicated a third effort. Instead, Delano Assemblymember and medical physician Jasmeet Bains and Visalia school board member Randy Villegas have launched Democratic bids.

Expect millions of dollars and national attention to flow into this congressional race. In 2024, Valadao and Salas spent a combined $11 million, while outside groups pitched in $16 million.

Voter approval of Prop. 50 also means Rep. Adam Gray, D-Merced, should have an easier time defending the 13th Congressional District. He defeated Republican incumbent John Duarte by 179 votes in 2024. The Sabato Crystal Ball changes the race from “toss-up” to “leans Democrat.” Former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln announced

Other important races

We rank the most interesting campaigns to keep an eye on.

Fresno County Superintendent: Normally, this is a low-key race where the incumbent or the favored candidate of the retiring superintendent steamrolls to victory. Not so next year when incumbent Michele Cantwell-Copher will face former Clovis Unified Superintendent Eimear O’Brien, who has the endorsement of previous county superintendent Jim Yovino. O’Brien has racked up a number of endorsements, including Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer.

Cantwell-Copher, who was elected in 2022, is heard regularly on local radio talking about the importance of education and promoting local programs, but a recent chat sounded more like a campaign ad where she defended the closing of a student-run cafe in downtown Fresno. O’Brien has opined on various topics on her Facebook page.

Assembly District 31: This will be an interesting confrontation between the member of a political family (Fresno Councilmember Annalisa Perea) and a grassroots advocate (Sandra Celedón). Perea followed the footsteps of her father, Henry R. Perea, and brother, Henry T. Perea, to the council. Her father went on to serve on the Fresno County Board of Supervisors, and her brother on the state Assembly.

Celedón, president and CEO of Building Healthy Communities, has long advocated for overlooked areas of south Fresno and helped push for passage of Measure P to fund parks and the arts. Her supporters include Assemblymember Joaquín Arámbula, who is termed out in District 31, and his father, former supervisor and Assemblymember Juan Arámbula.

Early financials show Perea with $256,000 cash on hand to Celedón’s $94,600.

The Assembly District 27 will have a field that includes Madera County Supervisor Leticia González and Merced school board member Priya Kadireddy, both Democrats, and former Merced Mayor Michael Murphy, a Republican.

Fresno City Council: The council will undergo a wholesale change with two incumbents – Miguel Arias in District 3 and Nelson Esparza in District 7 – maxed out after two terms and Annalisa Perea leaving District 1 after one term to seek an Assembly seat.

The District 3 race pits Assemblymember Joaquín Arámbula against Fresno Unified trustee Keisha Thomas and West Park School trustee Fernando Alvarez.

Perea has endorsed her staff member Mayra Campa in District 1. State Center Community College District trustee Rob Fuentes and Central Unified trustee Naindeep Singh Chann are also running.

In District 7, two former council staffers lead a four-candidate field. Ariana Martínez Lott worked for Arias and Nav Gurm worked for Esparza. Also joining the race are Blackstone Merchants Association president AJ Rassamni and newcomer René Campos.

District 5 council member Brandon Vang won a special election in March to replace Luis Chávez who won a county supervisor’s seat. He is facing no opponent thus far in his bid for a 4-year term.

Fresno County Board of Supervisors: District 4 Supervisor Buddy Mendes announced he would retire once his term is finished next year and endorsed former Sheriff Margaret Mims, who was armed with campaign signs and endorsements at his press conference in October. The field will include Parlier Mayor Alma Beltrán, Huron Mayor Rey León and State Center Community College District trustee Danielle Parra.

Fresno County Clerk/Registrar of Voters: Incumbent James Kus will have to get past Fresno City Councilmember Mike Karbassi to win a second term.

State Senate: Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig is seeking to replace termed-out state Sen. Shannon Grove in District 12. He has raised almost $500,000. Kingsburg businessman Michael Maher, who lost bids against Rep. Jim Costa in 2022 and 2024, is also running.

In District 14, Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria, D-Fresno, seeks to replace termed-out state Sen. Anna Caballero, D-Merced. Fresno Councilmember Nelson Esparza dropped out, and Sanger Councilmember Esmeralda Hurtado, younger sister of state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, has joined the race. Soria, a prolific fundraiser, reports more than $341,000 on hand.

The filing deadline is March 6, so these lists could change.