Do Fresno restaurants pose a COVID-19 threat? There’s no good data to back that up

As restaurants in Fresno, Clovis and most everywhere else in California have once again shut all but take-out operations because of the surging COVID pandemic, a question arises:

How much is the rate of coronavirus transmission in restaurants?

That was the inquiry that state Sen. Andreas Borgeas, a Republican from Fresno, put to Dr. Mark Ghaly, the secretary of California’s Health and Human Services Agency.

Specifically, Borgeas asked for “data, methodology and findings to understand the rate of transmission within industrial sectors, particularly restaurants.”

“He said we don’t have that,” Borgeas related from his phone call with Ghaly. “I just about fell out of my chair.”

Borgeas said Ghaly went on to explain that the main focus of state officials dealing with the pandemic has been to understand both the behavior and pathology of the coronavirus, which causes COVID-19.

Orders like limiting restaurants to take out and delivery to avoid people congregating are based on that understanding, Ghaly told Borgeas.

From an epidemiological perspective, that makes sense. But in 2020 California, home of Silicon Valley and a metrics-driven economy, it is astonishing that there is a shortage of hard data specific to types of businesses.

Especially when $8.6 billion has been spent this year in California from state and federal funds to control the spread of COVID, according to the state Legislative Analyst’s Office.

An email query to the Health and Human Services Agency about the data deficit resulted in this answer from Ghaly: “We have reached a point where COVID-19 is so widespread in California that just leaving the house is a risky behavior, which is why we adopted the regional stay at home order. This is not about which sector is riskier than another sector, it’s about that fact that any mixing among households presents a risk of disease transmission.”

Tracing COVID

Included in that spending are efforts to do contact tracing. That is the process of finding out from an infected person who they came in contact with in the days immediately before symptoms started.

It is an inexact science, public health experts warn. Oftentimes people don’t want to be honest in interviews with contact tracers about where they have been or who they have been with.

Those limitations make it hard to generate data specific to a particular industry, the experts say.

Also, some workplaces are easier to draw data from. A food production plant, for example, has an employee work force that can be questioned in contact tracing. But for workplaces open to the public who can come and go, such as restaurants and retailers, such tracing is more difficult to conduct and does not yield as useful data, explained David Pomaville, Fresno County’s public health director.

That explanation does not satisfy Borgeas. “Listen, if you asked the question (about restaurant data) in March and April (when the pandemic began), that would have been premature. But nine months in and with the capital investments into task forces, sourcing and tracing, you would think nine months later would have a more discreet and clinical understanding” of the most prolific transmission centers.

He is absolutely right.

Fresno restaurants closing for now

Yet on Monday several well-known restaurants in the Fresno area announced they are going to close at least for the next three weeks, the length of the current stay-at-home order issued by Gov. Gavin Newsom. Those were Schoolhouse Restaurant and Tavern, Fresno Breakfast House, Tabachines Cocina and 13 Prime Steak.

Short answer why: They cannot afford to stay open and only do take-out or delivery orders.

Would having specific data on COVID transmission make a difference? At the least, it could show restaurant owners why they need to very nearly shut down. Or, it might show they can remain open.

Without such findings, the government relies on a behavioral approach. And given the bad behavior of some top elected officials who have flaunted their own orders — like Newsom’s recent ill-conceived dinner at a pricey Napa Valley restaurant — credibility is in as short a supply as restaurant customers.