Fresno mayor, flipped House seat, taxpayer fatigue: Takeaways from primary election

Choosing a new mayor for Fresno, flipping a congressional seat, and taxpayer fatigue are top takeaways from Tuesday’s primary election.

Fresno mayor

Based on Election Night returns, Fresno’s former police chief Jerry Dyer was leading to become the next mayor. Dyer had received 54.4% of the ballots cast to Andrew Janz’s 36.1%. If Dyer stays above 50% plus one, he wins outright and would not have to go to a November runoff.

But that is a big if that cannot yet be assumed.

County elections has more than 80,000 ballots from around the county still to tally. Of that, a Bee analysis shows about 39,000 are likely from Fresno. Dyer would need to capture 43.5% of those ballots to win outright. That may seem feasible, given Dyer’s first-night total. But as the night progressed, with votes presumably cast closer to election day, his percentage of votes slipped from 59% to 54%.

Since Fresno went to the strong mayor form of government in 1993, no first-time mayoral candidate has won outright in the primary by getting 50 percent-plus one of the vote:

1993: Jim Patterson won a runoff against Brian Setencich

2000: Alan Autry won a runoff against Dan Whitehurst

2008: Ashley Swearengin won a runoff against Henry T. Perea

2016: Lee Brand won a runoff against Henry R. Perea

The current count could likely go for several weeks before all the ballots are tallied. But assuming Dyer does win, it would come as no surprise, given the advantages he had:

▪ For starters, he had 18 years of name recognition as the police chief fighting crime in Fresno.

▪ Second, he held a huge edge — 3 to 1 — in campaign funding over Janz.

▪ And third, he was able to devote full-time attention to his campaign since last fall, when he announced his run. Janz was limited by his day job, that of deputy district attorney.

Bottom line: It is going to take more time to really know who won this key race.

Congressional 21 and 22

Hanford Republican David Valadao got bounced from Congress two years ago when Democrat TJ Cox flipped the 21st District in the nation’s closest House race. On Tuesday Valadao took his first step toward returning the favor when he beat Cox 53.1% to 36.1%.

Cox, a Fresno resident, issued a statement Wednesday morning that reminded voters he trailed Valadao by 26 points after the primary two years ago. His point? He will work hard between now and the November general election to overcome Valadao’s lead. Both move on to the fall campaign.

In the neighboring 22nd District, Republican Devin Nunes of Tulare brushed aside Democrat Phil Arballo of Fresno by a 59.4% to 23.5% margin. Three other candidates also ran — one at 11.5%, two others each below 3%.

Nunes easily defeated opponents in the primary two years ago, getting 57.6% to the second finisher, Janz, who received 31.7%. In the fall election Janz gave Nunes a strong run, getting within five points.

Nunes and Arballo will meet again in November, and while the numbers could tighten up, the outcome will probably be the same, thanks to the GOP’s strong advantage in voter registration.

Congressional 16

Democrat Jim Costa, meanwhile, checked off the first of two boxes in his quest for another term in the House. He beat back challenges by fellow Democrats Esmeralda Soria of Fresno and Kim Williams of Merced.

Because of their candidacies, the Democratic vote was split and Costa finished second, behind the sole Republican in the race, Kevin Cookingham, who got 38.5%. Costa received 37.5%, Soria 18.4% and Williams 5.6%. It’s possible Costa will vault into the top spot once all the votes are counted.

Assuming those who backed Soria and Williams switch over to Costa in November, the longtime incumbent should be able to check the next box, that of winning re-election. Cookingham, of Madera, faces a tough task in repeating as the top finisher, since the district is predominately Democratic in voter registration.

Taxpayer fatigue?

Voters seemed to signal they are tiring of extra taxes when they rejected four of six school bond measures on the ballot in Fresno County. Fresno Unified and Parlier Unified prevailed with the needed margin of approval. Voters in Central, Kingsburg and Washington districts approved, but fell short of the 55% needed for passage. Clovis Unified, meanwhile, saw its measure defeated.

A statewide schools bond measure, Proposition 13, was easily defeated as well.

The failures of the bond measures will force the losing school districts to find other ways to build new facilities and repair current ones, and that won’t be easy. One possible message from the voters is that they are taxed enough.

This story was originally published March 4, 2020 at 1:41 PM.