Congress must act quickly to restore confidence in government statistics | Opinion
Accurate statistics about the American economy are essential, but President Donald Trump has now made it clear that if the statistics are not to his liking, he will fire the officials responsible for them. This should prompt a long overdue reform: Congress should create an independent bureau of statistics, separate from all political departments, to produce trustworthy data.
On August 1, Trump fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whom he accused — without evidence — of manipulating the monthly jobs reports for “political purposes.”
“We’re doing so well. I believe the numbers were phony, just like they were before the election, and there were other times. So, you know what I did? I fired her, and you know what? I did the right thing,” Trump told reporters Friday on the South Lawn.
McEntarfer was appointed to a four year term in 2024 and was confirmed by the Senate by a vote of 86-8. Her competence and impartiality appear above reproach.
Claims that the government has manipulated statistics are not new, though never before has a president fired those responsible for the numbers. In 1972, Democrats claimed that the Nixon administration had fabricated economic statistics concerning farm income and had manipulated the Consumer Price Index to show a false decrease just weeks before the presidential election.
A month before the 1980 presidential election, Ronald Reagan accused President Jimmy Carter’s administration of manipulating the Consumer Producer Price Index to show an artificial decrease in the inflation rate. In a campaign speech that received national publicity, Reagan claimed that the Carter administration had “jimmied” the index, which reflects wholesale prices, by including a factor never before considered in compiling these statistics. Reagan maintained that by tampering with economic indicators, the administration had transformed an increase in the inflation rate into an apparent decrease.
This is not the first time Trump has objected to government statistics. During his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump claimed that the unemployment rate was higher than reported. In 2024, he accused the Biden administration of orchestrating a cover-up after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its job growth estimates for a 12-month period.
In 1981, I co-authored an article that was published in the Texas Law Review, titled “Government Statistics: The Case for Independent Regulation,” which called for Congress to create an independent agency to produce economic statistics. We explained the conflict facing the government statistician: Though charged with the responsibility of providing accurate information, the statistician — even if a career civil servant — also has a vested interest in the success of their bureau or agency, which, in turn, has an interest in the success of the incumbent administration.
This risk, of course, is dramatically greater when those in charge of statistics know they can be fired if their results are not to the president’s liking. The administrators of statistical bureaus wield great influence over the collection of statistics — they determine whether to continue a statistical program, the basis for measurement, the frequency of compilation and the nature of the statistical tool.
It has long been recognized that accurate statistics about the economy are imperative. And it is crucial that they be trusted as impartial. Many policies, such as the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, are based on them. Federal statutes frequently have triggers, where action is automatically taken based on government data. Social Security benefits, the Supplemental Social Insurance program, government pensions, food stamps, public works and economic development programs and public employment programs — to cite a few examples — are also adjusted automatically to respond to the Consumer Price Index.
Government policies are evaluated based on the numbers. Trump was obviously upset at the job growth numbers because they indicate that his tariffs are having a detrimental effect on the economy.
The solution, which I proposed alongside my co-authors over 40 years ago, is to establish an independent, central statistical agency, which would have the responsibility to compile all national statistical indices, but would have no advocacy function. Similar agencies exist in most industrialized nations, including the Netherlands, Great Britain and Canada. In the Netherlands, for example, a Central Bureau of Statistics has existed since 1899.
Because the Supreme Court has recently indicated that a law cannot limit presidential removal of executive officials, the new data agency should be under Congress, as is true of the Governmental Accountability Office. The agency would make all final decisions about what statistics to collect and what definitions to employ.
By separating the roles of scientist and advocate, this proposal would best avoid conscious and unconscious manipulation. An independent agency would be composed entirely of people competent in the field of statistical collection and reporting, with no institutionalized policy bias.
Decision-making in a complex society requires highly sophisticated statistical information. For decisions to be made fairly and accurately, this information must be reliable and perceived as reliable. Trump’s firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is an unprecedented threat. The need for accurate information should not be seen as partisan, and Congress should act quickly to restore confidence in government statistics.
Erwin Chemerinsky is dean and professor of law at the UC Berkeley School of Law.
This story was originally published August 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM with the headline "Congress must act quickly to restore confidence in government statistics | Opinion."