Kamala Harris’ four biggest obstacles to becoming California’s next governor | Opinion

When former Vice President Kamala Harris took the stage last week in San Francisco, it was a reminder of her strength here in her home state.

Every other potential candidate for governor is cooling their heels and watching her decide if she is going to enter the race. She has given herself until later this summer to announce.

Since we’re waiting, it’s a good time to map out the landscape of that race. What are the biggest obstacles that Harris faces if she runs for governor and wins? Her real opponents are less the other candidates and more national forces and trends.

Bad billionaires

The biggest problem for Harris as would-be governor is our state’s crop of belligerent billionaires.

Harris has one of the worst problems that any candidate for office has ever faced: The world’s richest people live in her backyard — and many of them will spend unlimited amounts of money to beat her.

Sure, Harris has her own wealthy donors. She will raise enough money. But Silicon Valley is going MAGA now, the California billionaires are going MAGA and they’re all coming for Harris.

The tidal wave of money will result in a typhoon of weird, wrong, negative information following her around on the campaign trail. Viewers are going to be exhausted by the ads. The good news is that those same voters have always voted against the manipulative rich folks buying political ads.

This is going to be the first “post-money” race in political history: The money will be so overwhelming that it will all cancel out, and the best message will win. That means that this is Harris’ biggest opportunity for great messaging.

Despairing Democrats

Remember “Momala” and the efforts to make Harris into our nation’s mother?

The cringe will keep flowing this year, because Harris will have a new role: Therapist for neurotic Democrats.

Democrats have fallen into a well of despair that is leaving them directionless. They are playing their role in President Donald Trump’s shock and awe. Their self-doubt is interfering with their power as an opposition.

If Harris wants to get the most out of her coalition, she is going to have to do the emotional work of calming people down and pointing them in the right direction. She can’t skip it, because so many of the doubts are rooted in her loss last year.

Harris seemed to acknowledge this problem in her recent speeches, when she told the crowd, “courage is contagious.” It’s a good message — and a very personal one for her. Some of her earliest political advisors had close ties to gay icon Harvey Milk, who left behind a saying: “You have got to give them hope.”

She is pivoting to courage, and hope that will power her doubting base.

Housing hell

Harris’ biggest two problems are focused on the campaign, but the picture for actually governing this state is no better.

The economic deal for a lot of voters has broken. We are trapped in housing hell. Our housing policy is broken. When you factor in housing costs, we have the highest poverty rate in the nation. That shouldn’t be the case in the home of Silicon Valley, and yet here we are.

It’s even worse in Los Angeles, which still has a lot of work to do to recover from the wildfires.

How painful could this problem be for Harris? Very. She just lost a presidential race over inflation. The echoes are ringing.

It’s going to be hard for her to make progress on this problem. Can her campaign incorporate housing growth somehow? I don’t see her picking up a hammer like former President Jimmy Carter, but there is a lot that her campaign could do.

We’re used to politicians being arms-length from issues. But in California, that’s left us paralyzed. Harris has to figure out how to overcome that dynamic as she tries to pull us out of housing hell.

Competing candidates

The least of the problems Harris faces are competing candidates.

It’s hard to even identify her biggest threat at this point — many of the prospective Democrats seem like they might drop out and endorse her if she runs. The Republicans, on the other hand, have trouble standing out.

Right now, they’re all tied. Nobody is standing out. The process of campaigning will raise one to the top.

Sacramento is full of people who worked as staff to Harris as she has risen through government. I’m just one of that crowd. But if I were to give Harris thoughts on this race, this is the landscape that I would sketch.

If Harris can overcome those problems, she will have a smooth glide path to becoming California’s next governor.

This story was originally published May 12, 2025 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Kamala Harris’ four biggest obstacles to becoming California’s next governor | Opinion."