Donald Trump’s fear-mongering on crime gets exposed in Fresno’s latest stats | Opinion
“War zones.” “Ganglands.” “Destroyed.”
Those words were uttered by Donald Trump when he described certain California cities, like San Francisco and Los Angeles. The descriptions make an impression of citizens under siege by roving bands of hoodlums. His pitch was that, as a Republican, he would be tough on crime and could remake the hellscape that Democrats had allowed to develop.
Add in the abundance of online videos showing brazen smash-and-grab robberies at retailers around the state, and it becomes good politics for Republicans to lean into the “crime is out of control” mantra.
That is one reason why Californians overwhelmingly passed Proposition 36 last November, a measure that lowered the threshold for what constitutes a felony offense, making it easier for prosecutors to go after accused criminals.
But national data reported by the FBI and the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics show that violent crime is not rampant, and in Fresno the latest statistics reveal downright positive trends on serious offenses like murder, rape and assault.
Fresno’s interim Police Chief Mindy Casto recently reported that 14% fewer murders occurred in 2024 from the previous year. There were 30 intentional homicides last year, vs. 35 in 2023. Both those years are well under the totals of 2020 and 2021, when 74 murders occurred each year in the city.
Casto said officers solved 97% of the murder cases, which she attributed to “a lot of hard work.”
As reported by Bee staff writer Thaddeus Miller, rapes in Fresno fell by 16.6% last year and robberies were down by 1.6%. Burglaries also fell — 21.2% for commercial, 11.9% for residential. Rapes and burglaries also declined nationally.
“Violent crime has continually decreased in a number of categories, whether it be homicide, robbery, or rape or aggravated assault,” Mayor Jerry Dyer said at a news conference. “Those crimes continually go down in the city of Fresno, which is good news for the people who live here.”
Actual crime vs. perception
The public perception of crime does not match up with the statistics.
The latest Gallup poll, taken last October, found that 64% of Americans surveyed said they believed crime was higher in the nation than the previous year.
As Miller notes, murder cases were down 15% in 63 cities of 250,000 or larger, according to nationally recognized criminologist Jeff Asher. The nation’s reported violent and property crimes were likely among the lowest rates recorded since the 1960s and 1970s, his analysis says.
So why the disconnect? Politics.
Putting fear into voters has always been a part of politics. Trump is a master of this art. Republicans used the fear of crime in their contests last fall against Democrats. One reason for the Gallup poll result is the oft-repeated charge by Republicans — and their helpers in media like Fox News — that crime is out of control.
Is Fresno crime-free? Of course not. It is a city of over a half million people. Sadly, there will always be people breaking the law. One murder is one too many.
But as Casto’s report shows, violent crime is down, and has been trending downward since 2020. That is really good news at the start of a new year.
