Both Democrats and Republicans are drifting from California’s political center. What next? | Opinion
California’s new political center, one that is not set in stone, is about to reveal itself. The Democrats running Sacramento, who do not appear to always be on the same page with the voting public, would be wise to listen. So should Republicans seeking greater relevance.
The state’s many crises – housing, homelessness, insurance, electricity retail theft and gasoline – have altered the mood of the electorate. It does not inspire confidence when the state wildly swings from surplus to deficit. The public only gets periodic opportunities via the ballot box to share its collective voice. This feels like some change is in the wind. But how much?
Here is how certain initiatives on this ballot may help to reshape the state’s agenda:
Proposition 5
If there is one ballot initiative all about trust in California government, this one is it.
Proposition 5 would lower the approval threshold of local infrastructure bonds from two-thirds to 55 percent. The two-thirds threshold has prevented many local governments from passing bonds to finance their civic projects.
Voters must trust that local governments won’t abuse the lower threshold. A yes vote would indicate that voters believed local governments were on the right track with their construction plans and that a lower approval percentage is best for California. Its outcome will reveal if voters trust their local governments and the state’s Democratic leadership that placed this initiative on the ballot.
If Prop. 5 passes, the prospects of future local bonds passing would go up by as much as 50%, according to one state estimate. Either way, a lot is on the line.
Proposition 3
This is a reminder that California’s political center is not cemented for all time, but shifts along with our culture. It was only 16 years ago that voters banned gay marriage in California via Proposition 8. The initiative was ruled unconstitutional by the California Supreme Court, legalizing gay marriage ever since.
Proposition 3 would erase the Prop. 8 vote from 2008 and rewrite the state constitution accordingly. The stronger this proposition performs in this election, the more gay marriage moves into the mainstream. California Republican politicians obsessed with culture wars on sexual orientation and identity should pay attention.
Proposition 36
Democrats such as Gavin Newsom were loudly against this proposal for a somewhat tougher approach against repeat petty thieves and fentanyl users until polls started to show overwhelming support by the public. Proposition 36 would elevate a third petty theft to a felony and empower district attorneys to offer treatment or prison time to repeat fentanyl users.
Prop. 36 may be the most high-profile example of how Sacramento’s left wing is not on the same page as California voters. It requires initiatives such as this to amend a previous measure to reduce sentences for certain crimes approved by voters in 2014, Proposition 47. If the political center is shifting to a tougher approach to repeat criminals in certain circumstances, Democrats can either respect or reject the public they serve.
Proposition 32
This initiative would address California’s affordability crisis by raising the minimum wage and it cuts both ways. Proposition 32 proposes increasing that wage from $16 to $18 an hour. Its goal is to put more money in the pockets of workers. However, opponents say higher wages can translate into higher costs for goods and services that could hit voters in their pocketbooks.
And that potentially hits the pocketbook of voters who have the final say.
Congress and California aren’t on the same planet on minimum wage policy. The federal minimum has remained at $7.25 an hour for the past 15 years. In California, periodic adjustments are a tradition. This outcome will reveal just how generous the prevailing mood is of the electorate.
Newsom and Sacramento Democrats raised food workers to $20 an hour earlier this year in an inside power play with its union allies. The Prop. 32 outcome will reveal whether these leaders are on the same page as the public.
For Republicans, it has been 18 long years since California elected a member of their party to statewide offices, Arnold Schwarzenegger for governor and Steve Poizner for insurance commissioner. This election cycle tees up the issues for the next one in 2026, when all the statewide offices are on the ballot.
Neither party seems to represent the true California political center particularly well. If a lot of Californians left the voting booth on Tuesday a tad cranky, they have plenty of company.
This story was originally published November 5, 2024 at 9:00 PM with the headline "Both Democrats and Republicans are drifting from California’s political center. What next? | Opinion."