Gov. Gavin Newsom bets on COVID vaccine optimism amid threat of potential recall
Gov. Gavin Newsom did not invent the COVID-19 vaccine, but he’s doing everything he can to get some credit for it. Expect to hear plenty about California’s vaccination efforts during tonight’s State of the State speech, which Newsom will deliver from one of the nation’s largest vaccination sites, Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.
“The stadium also provides a more somber reminder of the pandemic: It seats 56,000 people, nearly the number of people who have died from COVID-19 in California,” wrote Adam Beam of the Associated Press.
The governor’s constant appearances at vaccination stations around the state help to raise public awareness of the increasingly available jabs. Their true purpose, however, is political: to help inoculate Newsom from troubling poll numbers and a recall threat.
It’s a smart strategy. After a year of COVID, people are ready for some good news. By jumping in front of the vaccine parade, Newsom can associate himself with the most positive development in recent history. Perhaps the serial press conferences can also help erase the memory of his shaky leadership during the crisis.
The pandemic exposed Newsom as an amateur politician who caves under pressure and whose actions rarely match his aspirations. He made some decisive moves early on, but the strong version of Newsom turned out to be a cruel illusion. His signature traits — mutability and inconsistency — overtook his resolve. The result: confusion, anger and a mounting death toll.
It took a while for Newsom’s failures to infect his poll numbers, but they finally did. Now, Newsom’s praying that the recall effort — funded by Republican donors but fueled by his own leadership failures — falls short of the nearly 1.5 million signatures needed to qualify.
Even if the recall qualifies, it’s unlikely to succeed. California voters will not replace Newsom with a Trump-supporting Republican like Kevin Faulconer under any circumstances, much less halfway through the governor’s first term. The recall would simply be another last-ditch effort by the California GOP to stay relevant and fleece political rubes with no clue about Golden State politics.
If the recall makes the ballot, however, Newsom will find himself in a humiliating position. He’ll be forced to relive his failures and defend his record in the middle of a political drama that, while unlikely to succeed, could still hurt him. It would force him to fight for survival and beg for support from people he’d rather ignore, such as state legislators.
It would also make Newsom — who spent years extolling his own leadership abilities and promising courage instead of cowardice — an even weaker leader. Every powerful and wealthy interest in the state will have leverage over a governor afraid to make any move that might dry up campaign contributions or trigger big checks to his opposition.
Newsom is highly susceptible to pressure. His original strategy to save the state from a major COVID spike collapsed after he surrendered to demands that he quickly reopen the state. He went one way, then swiftly changed directions and rules without much explanation. He crowed about positive statistics and lifted lockdowns, and then ducked when infections spiked and businesses shut down again.
Californians took note of Newsom’s erratic approach. Over 60% of voters described his handling of the coronavirus pandemic as “inconsistent” or “confusing” in a January poll by the Berkeley Institute of Government Studies.
Now, facing the threat of a recall election, Newsom is again trying to project optimism in the face of COVID. As California’s death toll nears 55,000, Newsom promises “bright light at the end of the tunnel.” With infections decreasing and businesses reopening, the governor seeks to create a rosy narrative to keep his poll numbers from sinking lower.
Unfortunately, his optimistic declarations tend to end in disappointment. The COVID surges during the summer and the winter — which followed widespread reopenings after cases declined — resulted in more deaths and shutdowns.
Newsom’s latest reopening scheme comes as both the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization warn that rushed reopenings will lead to more death.
“This is not the time to relax restrictions,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, on Feb. 26. That same day, Newsom gushed with enthusiasm about reopening during a press conference in Fresno.
“Businesses are starting open up, not just outdoors … this is happening very, very quickly,” Newsom said. “It’s a real point of optimism.”
As someone who lost an uncle to COVID, I hope California’s declining positivity rates will continue to validate Newsom’s upbeat outlook. Given his track record, however, I’m skeptical.
Will the vaccine allow California to reopen safely on Newsom’s optimistic timeline? Or will the governor’s latest plan, which promises Disneyland visits and Dodgers games by April 1, prove foolish?
This story was originally published March 9, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Gov. Gavin Newsom bets on COVID vaccine optimism amid threat of potential recall."