Measuring public opinion is essential to illuminating our representative government

“A government can be no better than the public opinion which sustains it.” This quote from President Franklin Roosevelt reflects the importance of public opinion to a functioning democracy. Without a sampling of that opinion, elected officials do not know the views of the constituents they are empowered to represent. This is where public opinion surveys play a significant role in a healthy democracy.

For the last two years, the Institute for Leadership and Public Policy at Fresno State has conducted surveys of the San Joaquin Valley to identify policy priorities and examine public attitudes about major issues facing our region.

You might say that there are plenty of surveys conducted each year, including several regular statewide polls, but these do not produce results specific to the San Joaquin Valley. In a region with the highest unemployment and poverty rates in the state, this leaves our elected representatives without valuable information that could be used to influence legislation at the state and federal levels to address the region’s many intractable problems.

In February, the institute, with the hard work of more than 30 Fresno State students, conducted its second poll of the San Joaquin Valley. Some are unaware that there are strict protocols that we must follow in order to ensure that our final sample of respondents reflects the diverse views and demographics of the region’s population. There are over 1.7 million registered voters in the San Joaquin Valley, but it would be impossible to contact them all to record their opinions. Instead, we randomly sampled the population using a list of registered voters from the California Secretary of State’s Office. Our final sample size was 634 registered voters, which, based on statistical formulas, yields us a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.

One final step we take to ensure that our results are not biased toward one party or racial and ethnic group is to “weight” the survey responses to match the characteristics of the 1.7 million registered voters. For example, 38 percent of voters in the San Joaquin Valley are registered as Democrats, 35 percent are registered as Republicans, and 21 percent are no party preference. Our final sample matches that breakdown of registered voters.

Our surveys have revealed many interesting insights into policy issues facing our region. Some results have shown how widespread problems are in the Valley and how they affect residents’ lives. For instance, we found that 62 percent of voters restrict their activities because of poor air quality. We also found that half of respondents know someone who has overdosed on prescription or illegal drugs and that this problem affects all income levels. Although the housing crisis is most often associated with Los Angeles or the Bay Area, 3 out of 4 registered voters said it was either a “big problem” or “somewhat of a problem” here in the Valley.

Since 2018 is an election year, we included several questions in this year’s survey related to the elections and ballot measures. Despite the scandal-ridden presidency of Donald Trump, evidence of a Democratic wave here in the Valley is not strong. In a “generic ballot” question that asks voters which congressional candidate they would support if the election were held today, Democrats have a rather small 3 percent advantage. This is a little smaller than the Democratic advantage shown in national polls. However, we did find that Democrats have an overwhelming advantage with female voters.

In a question about support for the newly enacted gas taxes, a majority of Valley voters support repeal of the taxes.

Regarding specific policy issues, we found strong support for the DACA program that protects immigrants from deportation who were brought into the United States illegally when they were children. Our results also showed that voters want the state government to decide the legality of marijuana rather than the federal government, implying strong support for the legalization of marijuana.

In last year’s survey, a clear majority of adults supported construction of the high-speed-rail project in the Valley. Despite financial setbacks and opposition from some local representatives, public support for high-speed rail, as revealed in our poll, may help sustain government decisions to continue these transforming projects in the face of such resistance.

This story was originally published June 1, 2018 at 12:21 PM with the headline "Measuring public opinion is essential to illuminating our representative government."