How hot will the Central Valley get this weekend? Here’s our forecast
After triple-digit temperatures made themselves felt earlier this week – with the Fresno high temp reaching 105 degrees on Wednesday – much of the Central Valley is thankfully cooling off a touch just in time for the weekend.
Earlier this week, high pressure air further up in the atmosphere was dominating the skies and pushing temperatures in the Central Valley well above 100 degrees. For some spots, like Sacramento, it was only the third and forth triple-digit-degree days this summer.
For areas further south in the San Joaquin Valley, it was also the return of intense overnight heat. Fresno’s low temperature this past Monday was a sweltering 79 degrees, keeping the air conditioning running full blast. Thankfully, the high pressure in the upper atmosphere has weakened some, and is now moving eastward.
This translates to temperatures moderating back to average for this time of year, with highs in the low to mid-90s. Even our low temperatures will make a huge recovery. Morning temperatures in the 50s mean that you can open the windows over night.
A typical July weekend in store as the State Fair opens
Last year, high temperatures for the opening weekend of the California State Fair were not kind for folks looking to hang out in the sun and eat funnel cakes. Opening day in 2025 hit a high temperature of 102 degrees, and the following days hovered around there.
The year before that was significantly worse. Opening day 2024 featured a high of 111 degrees, with triple-digit highs lingering for 10 days straight following. Brutal.
This year, by comparison, looks like a dream come true for fairgoers. High temps in the mid-90s will be much more forgiving for whatever your plans are. A Delta breeze Saturday afternoon at 20 mph and some passing clouds Sunday will be nice touch for those looking to take advantage.
Average weather is expected elsewhere in the region. High temps in the mid- to upper 90s for the San Joaquin Valley are nothing out of the ordinary, but also a welcome reprieve from the heat earlier this week.
It is still important to be mindful of the heat when out in the sun for hours at a time. Be sure to stay hydrated when enjoying these more formidable temperatures.
Looking ahead — nice and easy, more monsoonal moisture possible
Zooming out, the weekend really is quite nice for the entirety of the Central Valley and California at large. Weakening high pressure to our east is slowly reducing scorching hot temperatures from earlier this week and diminishing the monsoonal moisture that provided unseasonable rain showers and thunderstorms.
Both of these features may make a return later next week. There are early signs that a “ridge” of high pressure to the east may strengthen for late July. If it does this and stays in its current position — or even moves a bit back west — it would invite more monsoonal moisture from the tropics across California alongside warmer temperatures.
There is also a decent reason to believe this might not materialize – intense smoke from ongoing wildfires in Ontario, Canada, and Minnesota are covering the skies across the Midwest and Northeast. Smoke is so dense in spots that it is meaningfully lowering temperatures and altering the careful dance of air pressure across the continent. If this continues, it could keep the hottest temperatures next week away from California.
This story was originally published July 17, 2026 at 5:00 AM with the headline "How hot will the Central Valley get this weekend? Here’s our forecast."
