More rain expected to move through Merced, Bear Creek forecast to reach flood stage

A flood watch has been issued for the Merced area later this week and Bear Creek is expected to reach flood stage as more rain moves through the region, according to the National Weather Service.

A flood watch has been issued for Merced beginning 4 p.m. Thursday through 10 a.m. Sunday as a significant rain system is expected to move through the area beginning Thursday afternoon, according to meteorologist Dan Harty at the National Weather Service’s San Joaquin Valley office in Hanford.

Harty said Merced will also be under a wind advisory starting at 4 p.m. Thursday and continuing through Friday. The area could see gusts as high as about 45 mph, according to Harty.

The area is expected to see high temperatures in the mid 50s Wednesday with possibly scattered showers. Thursday high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s with a 40% chance of rain in the early afternoon before increasing to around an 80% chance later in the day.

Friday temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s with a 90% to 100% chance of rain, according to Harty. Merced is expected to see the bulk of the rainfall Thursday night through Friday accumulating about 1.5 to 2 inches of rain.

“Winds will subside Friday evening and not looking at much wind this weekend,” Harty said.

As of 8:45 a.m. Wednesday, Bear Creek in Merced was recorded to be at 6.47 feet. Harty said the water level is expected to rise rapidly Friday and is forecast to peak at about 23.2 feet Friday night, just above the flood stage of 23 feet.

“With excessive rainfall, conditions will be favorable for potential flooding,” Harty said.

Harty said the flooding could occur in low-lying areas and areas of poor drainage.

Planada ‘a concerning area’

Harty said he was not able to predict the possibility of any flooding in the Planada area as he did not have data for the nearby Miles Creek. Planada residents are still recovering from January storms that damaged many homes and businesses.

“That’s typically a concerning area and there’s definitely potential, (it’s) definitely a concerning area,” Harty said.

Merced is expected to see high temperatures in the mid 60s with a 60% chance of rain during the day before dropping to a 40% chance at night and into Sunday. According to Harty, the area is expected to see about a 30% chance of rain Sunday as Merced could possibly see about 0.5 inches for rain over the weekend.

Harty said the Merced River is expected to reach flood stage of 71 feet at about 11 p.m. Friday.

The National Weather Service advises people to clear storm drains of any debris that may cause flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas. Motorists are advised to never drive into flooded roads, especially at night.

This story was originally published March 8, 2023 at 12:45 PM with the headline "More rain expected to move through Merced, Bear Creek forecast to reach flood stage."