Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder to face Republican Kevin Lincoln in tough November House race
Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, and Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican, will vie in a close November election for a left-leaning Stockton-anchored seat in the Central Valley.
Lincoln will move on from the March 5 primary in California’s 9th Congressional District, the Associated Press projected at 5:49 p.m. Monday, joining Harder on the Nov. 5 general election ballot. The AP projected Harder, who was first elected to Congress in 2018, would advance on March 5.
With an estimated 58% of votes counted, Harder had 51.6% and Lincoln had 28.9%.
The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance from California primaries. Two more Republicans — strength and conditioning coach John McBride and retired engineer Khalid Jeffrey Jafri — split the remainder of votes.
Lincoln has the support of national GOP fundraisers who are hoping to flip the 9th, which covers most of San Joaquin County and parts of Contra Costa and Stanislaus counties.
While most Democrat-held seats in California are considered safe for their incumbents, analysts have said the race in the 9th is not guaranteed for Harder. Analysts consider elections on a depreciating scale from “solid” to “likely” to “leaning” to a “toss-up” for a Democrat or Republican. The 9th is “likely” to pick Harder, many election forecasters say.
“It would probably be in the ‘solid Democrat’ column if it weren’t for Kevin Lincoln being in the race,” said Dave Wasserman, an editor at the national election-analyzer Cook Political Report. “Lincoln did have a rocky start to his campaign but he’s been able to raise enough money to be taken seriously, and he does already represent the heart of the district, which is a Democratic-leaning city.”
Still, Wasserman noted, Harder won on a large margin in a year that was tough for California Democrats; he won in 2022, when he beat San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, a Republican, by almost 10 percentage points. Harder could be in further jeopardy, Wasserman said, if President Joe Biden does poorly with historically Democratic groups, including Black and Hispanic voters, he said.
Because the House majority itself is considered a toss-up, each win for either party is crucial.
An internal poll commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House’s GOP campaign arm, and sent to The Bee found the November race between Harder and Lincoln close, encouraging for GOP fundraisers. The NRCC, which campaigns to elect Republicans to the House, is backing Lincoln to flip the seat in November.
More than half of respondents were dissatisfied with Biden and California Gov. Gavin Newsom in the district; Republican challenger Brian Dahle beat the Democratic governor by about 5 percentage points in the 9th in 2022. Voters in the area picked Biden by 12 percentage points in 2020, but the survey found a Biden slightly ahead there in a race against former President Donald Trump.
Lincoln and Harder were neck and neck for favorability in the survey of 400 likely voters in California’s 9th from February 18-20. It has a plus-or-minus margin of error of 4.9%.
Harder, 37, was first elected to Congress in 2018 during a national “blue wave” when he unseated then-Rep. Jeff Denham, a Republican. Born in Turlock, Harder worked in venture capital before running for office.
Lincoln, 43, took office in 2021. Born in Stockton, Lincoln joined the Marines in 2001 and was later assigned to Marine One under former President George Bush. He worked for private security companies before becoming a pastor in Stockton in 2013.
It will take weeks before all ballots are counted. Counties must send results to California’s secretary of state by April 5. The secretary of state will certify the results on April 12.
This story was originally published March 11, 2024 at 6:09 PM with the headline "Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder to face Republican Kevin Lincoln in tough November House race."
