These are California’s closest 2022 congressional elections to watch, analysts say
These are election results to watch after polls close in California on Nov. 8 — and likely for weeks to come as the state continues to count votes in tight races for the U.S. House of Representatives.
The 2022 midterm elections will determine whether Republicans take control of Congress in 2023 and hand House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, the speaker’s gavel. Independent analysts think that is a likely outcome.
There are several elections in California that could contribute to a GOP majority or hold the line for Democrats.
Analysts at election-tracking organizations — including the The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Elections Daily — place close House districts on a scale from “likely” going for one party to “leans” to “toss-up.” In recent weeks, many analysts have shifted ratings to the right.
Nationwide, experts expect Republican candidates to do well for a number of reasons. The party of the president historically does poorly in midterm elections. President Joe Biden is a Democrat; his less-than-stellar approval rating does not help his party in this year’s midterms.
Republican enthusiasm for voting over economic worries has outpaced Democratic enthusiasm, per polls released the week before the election. Inflation and prices have consistently been top issues for voters.
Consultants also think that noncompetitive races for California Democrats running for statewide office, such as governor or U.S. Senate, will hinder blue turnout.
Still, Democrats have been bolstered by fears over threats to democracy, such as the results of denying presidential election results in 2020, and desire for abortion rights.
Not all analysts agree on which congressional elections could go either way in California. Based on an analysis of four separate organizations’ ratings, here’s what experts are saying about California’s most-watched midterms 24-hours before polls close:
3rd district
Unanimous rating: Likely Republican
Candidates: Veteran Dr. Kermit Jones, Democrat; Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, Republican
9th district
Most ratings: Leans Democratic
Candidates: Congressman Josh Harder, Democrat; San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, Republican
13th district
Split rating: Toss-up or leans Republican
Candidates: Farmer John Duarte, Republican; Assemblyman Adam Gray, Democrat
22nd district
Split rating: Toss-up or leans Republican
Candidates: Assemblyman Rudy Salas, Democrat; Congressman David Valadao, Republican
26th district
Most ratings: Likely Democratic
Candidates: Congresswoman Julia Brownley, Democrat; former federal prosecutor Matt Jacobs, Republican
27th district
Most ratings: Leans Republican
Candidates: Congressman Mike Garcia, Republican; former Assemblywoman Christy Smith, Democrat
40th district
Unanimous rating: Likely Republican
Candidates: Dr. Asif Mahmood, Democrat; Congresswoman Young Kim, Republican
41st district
Split rating: Likely or leans Republican
Candidates: Congressman Ken Calvert, Republican; former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, Democrat
45th district
Unanimous rating: Leans Republican
Candidates: Small business owner and naval reservist Jay Chen, Democrat; Congresswoman Michelle Steel, Republican
47th district
Most ratings: Leans Democratic
Candidates: Lawyer Scott Baugh, Republican; Congresswoman Katie Porter, Democrat
49th district
Most ratings: Leans Democratic
Candidates: Congressman Mike Levin, Democrat; businessman Brian Maryott, Republican
This story was originally published November 7, 2022 at 12:32 PM with the headline "These are California’s closest 2022 congressional elections to watch, analysts say."
