These California congressmen are in tight races, but they have a big election advantage
Republican Congressman David Valadao is sitting on a nice pile of campaign cash two weeks ahead of the election in a left-leaning congressional district.
So, too, is Democratic Congressman Josh Harder in a district that, during a Republican-friendly year, analysts say could flip.
Valadao, R-Hanford, reported more than $1.4 million on hand at the end of September, according to the Federal Election Commission. His challenger, Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas, had about a third of that amount — almost $518,000.
Harder, D-Tracy, had more than $4.5 million tucked away. His Republican challenger and San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti has about $454,000 in the tight fight for California’s 9th Congressional District.
Cash on hand can help candidates in a pinch. But that doesn’t matter this close to the election, says California GOP consultant Matt Rexroad.
“Especially after they’ve spent this much money,” he added of Valadao and Salas, who are vying to win the toss-up race in California’s 22nd Congressional District.
Salas has spent almost $1.7 million. Valadao, close to $2 million.
They are in one of the nation’s closest elections in a Southern San Joaquin Valley congressional district that runs from Hanford to Shafter.
Not that voters have solid picks yet, Rexroad said. Many will hold onto their ballots until Election Day.
The race for the 22nd is one of three congressional elections in California’s Central Valley that could help determine whether Republicans take control of the United States House of Representatives in 2023. Harder versus Patti and Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray versus Republican farmer John Duarte in California’s 13th Congressional District are the others.
And the contest between Rocklin Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, a Republican, and Dr. Kermit Jones, a doctor and veteran, has also drawn national attention and spending.
But who spent on which candidates shows the determination of both Democrats and Republicans to claim these seats. And how much members of Congress will go to bat for their colleagues.
David Valadao versus Rudy Salas
The contest between Valadao and Salas has drawn the most advertising of any House district in the country by far, according to a two-week October analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project. Pro-Republican ads were substantially higher in number than pro-Democratic ads.
The race has been named a toss-up since the new district formed through redistricting, the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative boundaries.
Valadao’s and Salas’ fundraising since October 2021 is off by about $1 million, with the Hanford dairyman taking more than $3.2 million in contributions and the Bakersfield assemblyman nearly $2.2 million since October 2021.
Though Valadao was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump over the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, he’s continued to receive donations from colleagues who did not.
For example, Valadao raked in $2,500 in September from the PAC for Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer of Missouri, who was one of 126 Republicans who signed an amicus brief in support of a Texas lawsuit challenging the 2020 presidential results. He received a $2,000 injection from the Bulldog PAC, associated with Rep. Jodey Arrington of Texas, who opposed certifying the 2020 election results and although condemned violence on Jan. 6, did not vote to impeach Trump.
In a district that would have backed President Joe Biden by 13 points in the 2020 presidential election, that impeachment vote could be an asset this time around.
He and Washington Congressman Dan Newhouse are the only Republicans who voted for impeachment to survive the primaries.
“The one guy I never, ever count out of a race — and I’ve been taking calls about him forever — is David Valadao. He’s just able to do it,” Rexroad said. “Everything else goes to pot, David Valadao still pulls it out.”
Salas has the support of Democrats from California and beyond: In September alone, he amassed thousands from several California representatives across the state and $5,000 from a PAC of South Carolina Congressman and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn.
He received a $2,500 donation from the Blue Dog PAC — a group of 18 moderate Democrats in Congress including Fresno Rep. Jim Costa — that made a total of $10,000 from the group. The Blue Dogs have endorsed Salas, Gray and Jones.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s campaign dumped $30,000 on him in July.
California Sen. Alex Padilla and other prominent Democrats stumped for Salas last weekend. If elected, Salas would be the San Joaquin Valley’s first Latino House representative. Padilla, California’s first Latino U.S. senator, said in an interview prior to campaigning for Salas last weekend he felt that matters. The district has a Hispanic-majority voting-age population.
“Representation matters. Absolutely,” Padilla said. “Both, from a policy perspective ... you either believe that climate change is real or you don’t; you believe in a woman’s right to choose or you don’t.”
Josh Harder versus Tom Patti
Most independent analysts studying elections nationwide agree that the race in California’s 9th Congressional District leans in favor of Harder. The district, centered around Stockton in the Sacramento Valley, has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Voters here are more decidedly voting for their registered party, Rexroad said, compared to other Valley districts. Still, he said this might be Harder’s toughest election over the next decade, other than the one in which he unseated Rep. Jeff Denham in 2018 to enter Congress.
Their fundraising last quarter shows that Democratic colleagues nationwide are pouring money into Harder’s campaign to keep him around. He raised more than $1.1 million in that three-month period.
Patti has raised about $1.3 million total over the course of his campaign.
Patti, who has been a member of the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors since 2016, took money from Denham’s committee — $1,000 in September for a total of $3,000 over the course of the election. He earned money from various conservative members of Congress, including California Rep. Ken Calvert, and from the Huck PAC, which is former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee’s PAC ($5,000 in August).
Adam Gray versus John Duarte
This incumbent-less district could go either way, independent analysts say. Taking all of Merced County, the 13th Congressional District goes from Lathrop through Modesto and Turlock to Coalinga.
Gray, whom some analysts give the nod to, has represented Merced in the Assembly since 2012. But in a GOP-friendly year, with an additional distaste for Sacramento and D.C. politicians in the Valley, Duarte emerged on top in the June primary.
Gray received the same appropriation from the Blue Dogs as Salas, for a total of $10,000. He has financial backing from several PACs concerned with preserving a blue hold on Congress. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s campaign has given Gray $9,000 this cycle, with a recent $7,000 injection across two of Gray’s funds.
Duarte received donations from neighbors Valadao and Rep. Tom McClintock’s campaigns, as well as from other prominent Republicans nationwide, such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s Save America Now PAC ($1,000).
In total, Duarte has raised almost $2 million throughout the campaign. Gray, more than $1.7 million.
Gray had more than $530,000 on hand at the end of September. Duarte, more than $240,000.
Kevin Kiley versus Kermit Jones
Kiley and Jones are about even in third quarter fundraising and cash to spend during the campaign’s final weeks.
They’re vying for the open seat in the redrawn 3rd Congressional District. Independent analysts see Kiley, now a Rocklin assemblyman, as a solid favorite.
But Jones, a Navy veteran and family physician, raised $1.003 million in the July to September quarter, roughly the same as Kiley’s $1.006 million.
Jones reported $224,971 cash on hand as of Sept. 30. Kiley had $601,113.
Kiley garnered strong backing from Republican members of Congress, as well as $5,000 on July 5 from Save America, Trump’s political arm. The former president endorsed Kiley in May.
Jones’ contributors include leading Democrats, even though he stresses that he doesn’t strictly follow party lines. He will not say whether he would back Pelosi, D-San Francisco, for another term as the House party leader, saying he wants to see who is running.
The campaigns of Pelosi and Hoyer each contributed $2,000 to Jones’ campaign. Jones also received donations from several labor unions, including those representing firefighters, communications workers and AFSCME.
“Kermit has not met the Speaker, like he hasn’t met a lot of his donors. I imagine the Speaker decided to donate to her party’s nominee in this race given that she raised $22 million dollars this past quarter,” said campaign manager Michaela Kurinsky-Malos. “Kermit is not beholden to any donor. Period.”
This story was originally published October 26, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "These California congressmen are in tight races, but they have a big election advantage."
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