After California’s primary, analysts say these are 10 congressional elections to watch
Results from California’s June 7 primary show which U.S. House races will be the hottest in November, with several that could tilt control of the chamber from Democrats to Republicans in 2023, according to independent election analysts.
Election trackers predict a GOP wave this fall as President Joe Biden’s approval rating sags under the weight of record gas prices, gun violence and COVID numbers. Plus the party of the president, now a Democrat, historically does poorly in midterm elections.
Analysts at nonpartisan organizations — including the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and Elections Daily — rate Democratic and Republican prospects for the races on a depreciating scale from safe to a toss-up.
These are rated as California’s closest congressional elections as of June 26:
Likely Republican
3rd District
Three of the four trackers say the 3rd Congressional District will likely elect a Republican in the fall. Elections Daily rates the 3rd, which stretches along the Nevada border from Warner Valley past Shoshone, is safe for the GOP.
Dr. Kermit Jones, a Democratic attorney and Navy veteran, and Rocklin Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, a Republican, advanced from the primary.
Kiley, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump and named Tuesday to the National Republican Campaign Committee’s Young Guns program — which provides money and other support to candidates it considers promising — had 39.6% of the vote. Jones had 38.8%. Almost 96% of the votes had been counted, according to the Associated Press.
Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, a Republican who shares many of Kiley’s conservative views, took 16.2%.
The 3rd District, newly drawn based on 2020 Census data, would have voted for Trump in 2020 by a 2% margin
40th District
The Cook Political Report says the 40th leans toward a GOP candidate; the other organizations rate this election as likely for a Republican.
The AP called the race for Democratic challenger Dr. Asif Mahmood on June 10. It called the race for incumbent Rep. Young Kim, R-Fullerton, on June 13.
Mahmood, a pulmonologist and internal medicine doctor, had 40.9% of the votes; Kim, 34.7%. Ninety-nine percent of the votes had been counted in this Orange County district.
Remaining votes also went to Republicans, meaning the GOP won more than 59%. The largest portion went to Greg Raths, a former fighter pilot who contested Rep. Katie Porter in 2020. He received 23.2%.
41st District
All four analysis organizations rate the 41st likely Republican.
Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, and Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, advanced to November in the Riverside district.
Calvert had 48.2%. Rollins, 30.5%. The AP reported that 99% of ballots had been counted.
Calvert has not had a challenger come within 3 percentage points of him in a general election since 2008.
Toss-up
22nd District
The 22nd Congressional District is the only toss-up for all four organizations.
The AP called the race for Bakersfield Assemblyman Rudy Salas, the Democratic challenger, on election night. It called it for incumbent Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, more than two weeks later.
Almost 97% of the votes had been counted. Salas had 45.4%; Valadao, 25.6%. The remaining votes were split between two Republicans.
Chris Mathys, a former Fresno City Councilman who tried to run as a “Trump conservative,” trailed Valadao with 23.1%, signaling the former presidents influence on Republican voters. Mathys vowed to contest the congressman for his vote to impeach Trump over the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Trump did not endorse anyone in this race, unlike how he did for other candidates challenging Republican incumbents who backed impeachment. Of the 10 GOP members who voted to impeach, six were running in 2022 elections. One of them already lost their Republican primary to a Trump-endorsed candidate. The other four face elections in August.
Some progressives think Salas, who is in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue program — which gives fundraising and organizational support to candidates who might flip seats — has the potential to become the Central Valley’s first Latino House representative.
The redrawn 22nd, which runs from Hanford past Wasco, would have voted for Biden by a 13% margin in 2020.
27th District
Elections Daily rates the 27th leaning Republican. The rest still call it as a toss-up.
Incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, and challenger Christy Smith, a Democrat and former California State Assembly member, advanced from the primary.
Garcia had 47.1%; Smith, 37.4%. The AP reported that almost 91% of the ballots in this district, which sits above Los Angeles, had been counted.
Garcia beat Smith for his seat in 2020 by 333 votes.
45th District
Elections Daily says this election leans for the GOP. And Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its rating in late June to “leans.”
Incumbent Rep. Michelle Park Steel, R-Seal Beach, and Democratic challenger Jay Chen, a small business owner, advanced to the general election in the crescent-shaped, Southern California district.
Steel had 48.2%. Chen, a DCCC Red to Blue candidate, 43.1%. Almost 99% of the votes had been counted.
Leans Democratic
13th District
The AP called the race for Assemblyman Adam Gray and farmer John Duarte on June 15.
Almost 97% of the votes had been counted. Duarte, a Republican business owner, had 34.3%. Gray, a Democrat from Merced, had 31%.
Overall, Democrats took 48.2% of the votes and Republicans 51.8%, suggesting a close call in November.
The district would have voted for Biden by 11 percentage points in 2020.
The GOP views the San Joaquin Valley district as a top pickup opportunity. Duarte has been a member of the Young Guns program since before the election.
Inside Elections says this district will likely pick a Democrat.
47th District
All four election trackers agree that this race leans for a Democrat.
Porter, the Democratic incumbent, and Republican challenger Scott Baugh advanced from the primary in the Southern California district.
Porter, D-Irvine, had 51.7% and Baugh, a former Republican leader in the State Assembly and a Young Gun, 30.9%.
Ninety-nine percent of the votes had been counted.
49th District
The AP called the race for incumbent Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, on election night. It called the race for Brian Maryott, a former mayor of San Juan Capistrano, on June 15.
Levin had 48.9% and Maryott, a Republican, had 19% with 99% of the ballots counted. The remaining votes all went to GOP candidates.
Levin beat Maryott by just over 6 percentage points for the seat in 2020. Maryott was named a member of the Young Gun program on Tuesday.
Inside Elections says this election will likely go to a Democrat.
Likely Democratic
9th District
Elections Daily now says the Stockton-centered district leans Democratic, but Inside Elections views it as safe. The other two organizations place it in the “likely” column.
The AP called the race on June 16 for Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock, and San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, the Republican challenger and a newly-minted NRCC Young Gun.
Harder had 37.8%. Patti, 28.6%. Almost 84% of the votes have been counted.
Republicans took more than 48% of the vote in the crowded primary field, suggesting a tight race in November.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also rates elections in the 21st, 25th and 26th Districts as ones that are likely, but not definitely, going for a Democrat in 2022. Democratic Reps. Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz and Julia Brownley — and their challengers — all advanced to the general election.
McClatchy DC’s David Lightman contributed to this story.
This story was originally published June 15, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "After California’s primary, analysts say these are 10 congressional elections to watch."
