‘The numbers are dismal:’ Trump campaign, super PAC pause ads in Michigan
President Donald Trump’s campaign is not currently running television or radio ads in Michigan and its allied super PAC has been dark in the state for most of July, a possible indication that the key Upper Midwestern battleground is beginning to fall out of reach.
The Trump campaign stopped running ads in Michigan last week, while it continues to advertise in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the ad tracking firm Medium Buying. America First Action, the pro-Trump super PAC, has not aired advertising there since July 2 and its latest flight that ties Joe Biden to the “Defund the Police” movement is not scheduled to air in Michigan. Instead, the spot is running in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina.
“We’re looking at the map and basing our investment decisions on the most reliable pathway to 270 electoral college votes,” said an adviser to the super PAC, who insisted that Michigan remained winnable and encouraged the Trump campaign to invest there.
A Trump official noted the campaign has reserved time in Michigan for the homestretch. “Biden can continue to spend a million a week there if he wants to,” the aide said.
But the Trump campaign devoted significantly fewer resources to Michigan in July than in either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, according to data provided by Advertising Analytics, which includes digital spending in its totals. Whereas the Biden campaign doubled its total advertising in Michigan from June to July, Trump reduced its allocation there by more than half the amount over the same period. After spending $2.5 million in June, the president’s team shrunk its Michigan budget to under $1 million in July. Conversely, it has increased its budgets in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania over the summer.
“The numbers speak for themselves and the advertising dollars speak for themselves,” said a Trump administration official who was involved with the 2016 campaign. “The campaign thinks they have a better shot in Pennsylvania and that’s why they are matching Biden on advertising there.”
Trump has not led in a single public poll of Michigan all year. A Morning Consult survey of likely voters released on Tuesday showed the president trailing Biden by 10 points. The RealClearPolitics average of polls tracks Biden with an 8-point advantage.
“The numbers are dismal,” said one GOP pollster familiar with internal data tracking the state. “Hard to see how it remains competitive.”
Trump, who captured Michigan’s 16 electoral votes by just over 10,000 votes in 2016, is facing a manifold of problems there. A recent CBS poll found 58% of registered voters say Trump has done a “bad job” of handling the coronavirus outbreak and his rating on handling the economy — usually his top strength — stands just marginally better than Biden’s.
Republicans are also watching their support hemorrhage in the suburbs, particularly in Oakland County, which Trump lost by just 8 points in 2016. As much as his base in the western part of his state is drawn to his combative style, there are numbers of traditional Republicans outside of Detroit who recoil from his caustic and unwieldy rhetoric.
Additionally, Catholics are another worrisome group for Republicans. While exit polls show Trump carried Catholics by 18 points in Michigan, the GOP pollster indicated there were signs they were comfortable with Biden, a Roman Catholic.
Republican presidential candidates have long had a tortured relationship with Michigan. In 2012, Mitt Romney and his allies pulled out of the state in early September, despite having been born and raised there by his father, who served two terms as a popular Michigan governor. Four years prior in 2008, John McCain abandoned the state in October in an attempt to marshall resources for Wisconsin and Ohio. He lost all three states to Barack Obama.
It was Trump who pulled off the upset there in 2016 despite not having a campaign operation in the state until late September and little semblance of an organization. Like now, many polls showed Trump trailing by double-digits and without much hope. It’s why some Republicans who have experience in the state believe the campaign should not wholly abandon it, especially before Labor Day, when the campaign will intensify.
“The same voices who said Clinton was going to swamp Trump in 2016 are desperate thinking they’re going to win four years later,” said Bill Schuette, the unsuccessful 2018 GOP nominee for governor. “The campaign will turn the corner on Labor Day and just keep at it, keep at it...It’s going to be another one of these photo finishes in my opinion.”
Prominent Michigan Democrats, still scarred by the last campaign, have been vocal that polls showing Biden ahead by double-digits are wrong. And even Republicans, who concede Biden is likely ahead, don’t buy that he leads by more than 5 points or so.
“Hoping Michigan stays on everyone’s target list,” said Scott Reed, the political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “It will take a big effort.”
This story was originally published July 29, 2020 at 7:07 AM with the headline "‘The numbers are dismal:’ Trump campaign, super PAC pause ads in Michigan."
