Field Poll: Swearengin trails Yee by 14 percentage points in controller's race

The latest Field Poll shows state controller hopeful Ashley Swearengin in the same position as most of her Republican colleagues seeking statewide office in November -- far behind and with considerable ground to make up before the election.

Bay Area Democrat Betty Yee, a state Board of Equalization member, was supported by 46% of respondents in the state controller race to Swearengin's 32%, with 22% undecided. The poll of likely voters was conducted over the last two weeks of August.

The results aren't very surprising, said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a veteran political analyst at the University of Southern California. She said that with the exception of the Secretary of State race between Democrat Alex Padilla and Republican Pete Peterson, every GOP candidate is facing a double-digit deficit in the poll.

"It's all about the arithmetic, and the Republicans right now don't have the kind of arithmetic that makes them viable to beat a Democrat in this state," Jeffe said.

On the other hand, Tim Clark, Swearengin's campaign consultant, found what he said were flaws in the poll, staring with how Swearengin was identified -- as Fresno's mayor. That was her title on the primary election ballot, but in the coming general election, it will be "mayor/CEO," which Clark said will help win votes.

"That seems to have impacted the results," he said. "For state controller, ballot titles are key to vote results."

He also said the poll was run in mid-August -- just ahead of the Labor Day weekend which marks the unofficial start of the general election campaign season.

That wasn't long after the Swearengin campaign touted two polls -- one of them commissioned by the campaign itself -- showing she was in a competitive race with Yee.

"With the expected low turnout, we believe we're in a good position to win this race," Clark said.

Still, the results reflect quite a turnaround for Yee, who got off to a bit of a late fall campaign start after her main primary election opponent, former Assembly Speaker John A. Pérez, mounted an unsuccessful recount effort.

The poll also marks a different reality for Swearengin when she is pitted one-on-one against a Democratic Party opponent.

In an April Field Poll, Swearengin led both Yee and Pérez, who were both better-known Democratic candidates. That poll, which came just as the primary campaign was heating up, confirmed Swearengin as one of the Republican Party's rising stars.

But with Gov. Jerry Brown comfortably ahead of Republican Neel Kashkari at the top of the ticket, this year's down-ballot races have been "a little less visible than prior cycles," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll. He said the scarcity of statewide TV ads means fewer indicators that it's nearly time to go to the polls.

The voters are sleepwalking a bit as we approach the election," DiCamillo said.

That's causing somewhat predictable readings for most of the constitutional offices, many of which have not been held by a Republican in more than a decade in a state where registered Democrats far outnumber Republicans.

Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris and Democratic Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones all are approaching the 50% threshold and hold comfortable leads over Republican challengers Ron Nehring, Ronald Gold and state Sen. Ted Gaines of Rocklin.

Controller John Chiang, a heavy favorite to capture the state treasurer's office, leads GOP businessman Greg Conlin 52% to 26%.

"These races are basically invisible, and a lot of the voters are going to make the judgment in the partisan races on the basis of party ID," Jeffe said.

With Secretary of State Debra Bowen vacating her post because of term limits, that race is perhaps the state GOP's best chance at a statewide office. In the closest partisan contest, Padilla a Democratic state Senator from Los Angeles, holds a 7-percentage-point lead over Peterson, head of the Davenport Institute for Public Engagement and Civic Leadership at Pepperdine University.

While many handicappers are again expecting Democrats to score a clean sweep, DiCamillo said, Peterson is "someone who could potentially win. The atmospherics, at least, seem to give him a shot."

The marque matchup of the fall ballot could be California's nonpartisan race for schools chief, which pits incumbent Tom Torlakson against fellow Democrat and former charter schools executive Marshall Tuck.

Both are in a statistical dead heat with 55 days to go before the Nov. 4 election, according to the Field Poll. Tuck has 31%, Torlakson 28% and 41% are undecided.

This story was originally published September 9, 2014 at 12:00 AM.