‘There is no simple solution’: Why immigration is about to be an even thornier issue for Biden
No political issue has persistently vexed President Joe Biden quite like immigration.
It isn’t about to get any easier for him.
A looming series of legislative clashes and policy decisions in Washington later this summer will shape how voters view often-contentious immigration issues from now until next year’s midterm elections, according to political strategists from both parties. That will pose a challenge for a Biden administration struggling to sell the public on its vision for migration and the border.
“The next couple of months are going to be really important in terms of how the public understands immigration,” said Ali Noorani, president and chief executive officer of the advocacy group National Immigration Forum. “And that obviously is going to have political consequences, for both Biden but also Republicans.”
On Capitol Hill, the potential inclusion of a pathway to citizenship for millions of undocumented migrants in a $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill could trigger intense scrutiny from a Republican base that has otherwise paid little attention to Biden’s legislative agenda.
At the White House, immigration advocates have pushed the administration to revoke Title 42, a public health order used to turn away all migrants at the border except for unaccompanied children.
The potential policy decisions are coming at a time when more migrants are arriving at the southern border than they have in years, with few signs that the increase will abate anytime soon.
Some Democrats say they see as much opportunity as risk for Biden in the coming challenges, especially if the president spends more time communicating how he plans to handle border security and immigration policy overall.
But they also acknowledge nervousness about some of the coming policy decisions.
“There is no simple solution to any of this stuff,” said Lanae Erickson, senior vice president for social policy and politics at Third Way, a center-left think tank. “And I think he’s handling it as well as he can, but it’s just a mess. And it’s not going to be easy.”
LOW MARKS ON IMMIGRATION
Public polls have consistently shown that immigration is among Biden’s weakest issues politically. A Politico/Morning Consult survey conducted earlier this month found that 52% of voters approve of Biden’s overall job performance, but that approval dropped 13 points to 39% on his handling of immigration.
It was a similar story four months ago. A mid-March Politico/Morning Consult poll showed a 16-point drop from Biden’s overall job performance rating (62%) to his immigration rating (46%).
While Republicans are overwhelmingly opposed to Biden’s immigration policies, diminished Democratic support accounts for much of the difference in those two polls. The mid-July poll found a 21-point difference between Democrats’ overall approval for Biden (90%) and immigration approval (69%). In mid-March, there was a 19-point difference, from 92% overall to 73% on immigration.
“There’s a part of the party that’s not going to accept doing nothing,” said Jim Manley, who was a top aide to former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid.
Most polls still show a majority of voters approving of Biden’s performance in office, despite his lower marks on immigration. But some Democrats say they worry that if Biden’s immigration numbers decline or the issue begins receiving more attention from the public, his overall standing could also begin to suffer.
Through the first six months of Biden’s presidency, the GOP base has been more focused on cultural issues outside of Washington than legislation moving through Congress. But Republicans warn that by attempting to inject immigration — a volatile issue that has long animated conservatives — into the larger budget reconciliation bill, Biden and the Democrats risk sparking a political backlash that could haunt them heading into the midterm elections.
“We haven’t really seen a grassroots opposition to Biden’s agenda,” said Brendan Buck, who was an aide to former GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan. “If they made this bill about immigration, I think that might be the sort of thing that lights the fuse that gets the Republican base fired up and focused on Biden.”
Prominent Republicans have zeroed in on the Democrats’ plans to include immigration measures in the reconciliation bill in recent days. Former President Donald Trump, who has weighed in sparingly on the infrastructure debate, released a statement saying that including “amnesty” in the bill “will result in disaster beyond our gravest nightmares.”
And Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., blasted the idea as a “power grab” during an appearance on Fox News.
“If you give one person legal status, there will be a run on our border like you have never seen before,” Graham said. “[It’s] the dumbest idea in the history of the Senate, the history of the White House. It will lead to the breakdown of law and order beyond what you see today.”
Some Republicans also question whether the Senate parliamentarian will even allow the immigration measures to be included in a reconciliation bill, which are typically used for budgetary issues.
“They’re really asking for this to topple under its own weight,” Buck said. “It’s a far too large and controversial measure to add on what is maybe the most volatile issue in American politics in immigration.”
RISKS AND REWARDS FOR DEMOCRATS
Democrats say they welcome a legislative fight over the reconciliation bill, arguing it offers much better political terrain for the White House than a debate over the border.
“If they keep attention on the reconciliation part, we’re doing good,” Erickson said. “The more we’re talking about that, the better.”
Erickson and other Democrats say they make a clear distinction between the politics of trying to legalize undocumented migrants and the situation at the border, which they say is much more fraught politically.
But they also say that Biden could shift his polling numbers if he spends more time explaining his immigration agenda in a way that emphasizes both humane treatment for the arriving migrants and the priority placed on keeping the border secure and orderly.
“Part of why the numbers aren’t as good as they could be is because voters don’t have a clear understanding of where the administration is taking the country on immigration,” said Nick Gourevitch, a Democratic pollster who for years has conducted extensive polling on the immigration issue.
This story was originally published July 26, 2021 at 2:00 AM with the headline "‘There is no simple solution’: Why immigration is about to be an even thornier issue for Biden."
