Ukraine Has Gained the Upper Hand Over Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's upbeat assessment that his troops were "holding more positions and inflicting more damage" to Russia points to a turnaround in their war fortunes after fears that reduced U.S. support for Kyiv would hand Vladimir Putin an advantage.

Zelensky’s boast on May 19 about dynamic changes in Kyiv’s favor would have been hard to predict earlier this year amid stalled United States-led peace talks, the Trump administration lessening support, and a winter of relentless Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy and critical infrastructure.

But its use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has offset dwindling American aid. Successful drone strikes behind the front lines and deeper inside Russia have given Kyiv reason for optimism.

"The overall dynamics of the war are gradually shifting in Ukraine's favor compared to previous months," Giorgi Revishvili, a military analyst and founder of the Russia Analyzed Substack, told Newsweek. "The situation for Ukraine is markedly better than it was last year."

Ukraine Steps Up Drone Production and Attacks

Ukraine's defense ministry has touted a significant increase over the last year in the production of reconnaissance, mid-strike, and deep-strike drone systems, as well as fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drones, which are effective along parts of the frontline.

"Over the last six months Ukraine has demonstrated that it has the initiative in drones," said Matthew Arnold, director of the Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War Program at the London School of Economics think tank, LSE Ideas.

He told Newsweek that Ukraine will gain confidence from knowing that the withdrawal of much U.S. aid did not collapse the war effort. "It is learning, adapting and deploying drones quicker and more successfully than Russia can."

Revishvili said it was a notable recent development that Kyiv had intensified its mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics at an operational depth of 18 to 65 miles inside occupied territories, such as in southeastern Ukraine.

Ukraine's forces have also stepped up frontline operations to increase their elimination of Russian troops, while expanding their deep- and mid-range strike campaigns to pressure the Russian economy and disrupt logistics in the operational rear, he added.

Establishing a land corridor linking occupied Crimea to Rostov in Russia was one of Moscow’s objectives, which Ukraine tried to thwart during its unsuccessful 2023 counteroffensive.

"Now, Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian supply lines there almost daily, and even pro-war Russian military bloggers are sounding the alarm," Revishvili said.

Next Six Months ‘Critical'

General Andriy Biletskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, told Reuters that if Kyiv maintained momentum over several months, frontline gains could force Putin to abandon the part of the Donetsk region it does not occupy.

Russian demands in U.S.-backed peace talks include getting the entire oblast it claims to have annexed in the eastern Donbas region. Kyiv has repeatedly said this would not be acceptable.

Biletskyi told Reuters that Russia's army is exhausted and incapable of making major breakthroughs, a situation complicated by Elon Musk’s decision to cut access to his Starlink satellite-based internet service for Russian forces. He said his troops were holding the flank around Sloviansk, the northern bastion of eastern Ukraine's highly defended Fortress Belt, forcing Moscow to attack the city head-on, but causing a heavy loss of Russian troops and field commanders.

Ukraine's forces must define those directions "where we can improve our positions, take some strategic points," which would give Kyiv leverage over Russia in talks, Biletskyi said, stressing that on the battlefield, the next six months "are the most critical.”

Revishvili from Russian Analyzed said that if Ukraine can sustain and expand its campaign, it could create significant challenges for Russian forces. Controlling the operational depth and the steady attrition of logistics can significantly affect Russian frontline operations, reducing their ability to sustain offensive momentum and advance, he said.

"This could also create gaps across the frontline that Ukraine may be able to exploit," Revishvili said. "However, the extent to which Ukraine can capitalize on such opportunities remains to be seen and will depend, in part, on its ability to address its ongoing manpower shortages."

Ukraine Gains

Zelensky said this month that Ukraine had retaken nearly 230 square miles of territory this year. By contrast, Russia's advances slowed to 40 square miles in Ukraine this year, compared with 625 square miles in the same period last year, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The U.S.-based think tank said Kyiv’s forces were challenging the war’s positional character and could soon stage limited mechanized assaults.

The ISW said Kyiv had re-secured an overall drone advantage and its success in curbing Russian advances and reversing gains, combined with Kyiv’s reintroduction of some tactical mechanized maneuver, "may mark the beginning of a new phase of the war."

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Ukraine War Contact Line

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Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia

Zelensky said Ukrainian “middle strikes” against Russian air defenses and military logistics up to 120 miles behind the front line had quadrupled since February. These have slowed Russian advances and hampered the transport of personnel and material to the front.

Ukrainian strikes have targeted Russian facilities far from the frontline, ranging from export terminals on the Gulf of Finland to inland refineries. Overnight Thursday, Ukrainian forces struck an oil facility in Volgograd, only a day after they had hit the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia's southern Krasnodar region for the fifth time this spring.

A Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow on May 18 targeted Sheremetyevo Airport, the Moscow Oil Refinery, a petroleum pumping station, and two firms that make electronics for the Russian military.

"It is much more palpable inside Russia that the war is shifting through increased Russian vulnerability inside the homeland," said Arnold, the program director of LSE IDEAS' Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War Program. "Ukraine has a very deliberate strategy of undermining Putin's notion that he can wage war on Ukraine with limited costs to Russia's economy or people."

Putin Maintains His Demands

Despite reports of a decline in Russia's battlefield performance, Putin still believes his forces can capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which comprise the Donbas region, by autumn, according to the Financial Times, citing unnamed sources who spoke to the Russian president.

Putin also this month reiterated his call for Ukrainian troops to surrender, saying they were about to collapse and suggesting that he is in no mood for backing down. This could be in part fueled by the Russian military command, which likely shows Putin exaggerated maps, giving him a false sense of the frontline, according to the ISW.

Revishvili said that some axes remain more challenging for Ukraine. Around Kostiantynivka, a critical city for the defense of Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces are employing small-group infiltration tactics while leveling the city through heavy bombardment as they seek to make it ultimately untenable for Ukrainian forces to defend.

"Russian troops are working to establish footholds and expand their presence around the city before gradually penetrating deeper into urban areas," Revishvili said.

“The battle for Donetsk is not solely a military matter-it also carries significant political weight," he said, "therefore, Russia must experience not only military setbacks but political ones as well."

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This story was originally published May 30, 2026 at 1:00 AM.